If the price of oil continues to rise like this, I can't afford to add oil without drinking water!
Therefore, it may be difficult for ordinary workers to avoid considering getting into electric vehicles in the next 5 years. Of course, I know that there are still many people who do not accept electric vehicles from the heart, is it really environmentally friendly to charge electric vehicles with coal power? Is the price of batteries rising faster than that of a fuel truck to determine the cost-effectiveness? Say that the start of electric vehicles is for energy security, and now the price of lithium and nickel has soared, and it seems that energy is not safe? Battery technology changes in 2-3 years, how to get it after buying early?
If you say that you may buy an electric car in 5 years, and there are a bunch of questions, then these dry goods can be understood first, at least for whether you can buy an electric car, when to buy an electric car will be more spectrum.
On March 25-27, the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum was held in Beijing, with the participation of vice ministers of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, and representatives of BYD, Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, Volkswagen, Changan, GM and other enterprises. This series of "luxury" lists, which shows the high specifications of the meeting, as for the meeting record is too lengthy, we still directly to sort out the dry goods, at the same time, I also roughly divided into categories.
Is it really environmentally friendly and emission-reducing?
When major cities began to restrict traffic a few years ago, there were many voices of doubt, and foreign countries also drove like this, why didn't there necessarily be a problem with carbon emissions? Restricting traffic is nothing more than a blow to industrial pollution. Let's set the actual data: the carbon emissions in the domestic transportation sector account for about 10%, of which the annual emissions of road transportation are 750 million tons of CO2, accounting for 7%; about 20-25% of the global carbon emissions come from the transportation sector. (International Forum, March 26)
As for the charging of electric vehicles to coal, is it really reduced? At present, the domestic electric passenger car consumes 15 degrees of electricity per 100 kilometers, calculated according to the proportion of coal power in 2021, corresponding to 8.5kg of CO2 emissions, which is nearly 40% less than that of fuel vehicles.
It can be determined that even if the mainland's current power generation structure, electric vehicles still have the effect of reducing emissions, and buying electric vehicles still contributes to environmental protection.
The price increase of electric vehicles is not normal! Will the price be reduced in the future?
From February to March this year, the collective price of electric vehicles increased, and more than 20 car companies announced price increases of 4,000 to more than 10,000 different ranges, the most exaggerated of which was Tesla, which increased prices 3 times in 7 days. Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said: "For example, lithium carbonate (price) can actually increase tenfold in the past year. He pointed out that this wave of battery material price growth, "has deviated from supply and demand, resulting in abnormal growth." ”
Electric vehicle sales have just emerged, sales accounted for 20% of the total, began to rise prices? Saying that the development of electric vehicles is for the energy security of the mainland, does not it seem that it is also stuck in the neck of electric vehicle raw materials now? On March 26, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum that the current sharp price increase in power battery raw materials needs to be highly concerned and seriously studied and solved.
He mentioned that the progress of domestic resource development will be moderately accelerated, and unfair competition behaviors such as hoarding and speculation will be resolutely cracked down, and the price of key raw materials will be promoted to return to rationality.
Li Jin, chairman of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, said that by 2025, China's demand for lithium carbonate is expected to be about 600,000 tons, and the next five years will increase the mining of lithium ore resources in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Qinghai and the progress of battery recycling technology, and it is expected that the domestic production capacity will reach 28, 45, 54 and 790,000 tons in 2022-2025, and the demand for imported lithium resources will be greatly reduced. In addition, in the long run, the lithium battery industry will achieve a circular economy, and it is expected that 1.5TWh of global 5TWh battery production will come from recycling in 2040.
In other words, this wave of price increases in early 2022 is not normal, and the future domestic battery material production capacity can meet more than 90% of the demand for electric vehicles. In the future, electric vehicles will not only not increase prices, but may also have room for price reduction.
1000km endurance? Cobalt-free batteries?
Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD Automobile, believes that when the range of electric vehicles reaches 500 kilometers, the battery energy density is no longer the most important, and the most important indicators may become safety, cost, cycle life and so on. He also pointed out that lithium iron phosphate batteries do not contain rare metals, more suitable for the tolerance of social resources, and should be adhered to as the correct development path.
Panasonic President Nanomi Yu said that in 2022, Panasonic's focus is to launch 4680 batteries, 4680 batteries will become the mainstream of future cylindrical batteries, panasonic will also strive to achieve mass production of cobalt-free batteries within three years. In addition, Panasonic has partnered with Toyota in Dalian to develop a square battery.
Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK power battery, and Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd., also mentioned that they are optimistic about the advantages of the future development of large cylindrical batteries, the former believes that the amount of high-end electric vehicles in the future is excellent solution, and by 2025, the market share of large cylindrical batteries will exceed 30%, that is, about 480GWh, more than the total global demand in 2021; the latter believes that large cylindrical batteries have become the king of the industry has begun to dawn and is becoming the ultimate technical direction of power batteries.
Ningde era is a big move, Ningde era chief scientist Wu Kai said, "The third generation of CTP technology (Kirin battery) of Ningde era has been launched. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared with the 4680 system. Insiders revealed that more detailed information on Kirin Battery will be released in April. In addition, the heatless diffusion battery technology with a range of 1,000 km and higher specific energy in the Ningde era will be mass-produced in 2023.
The ideal has another view, founder and CEO Li Xiang mentioned, "If you look forward to 2030 or even longer 2035, the central power energy, arranged through the grid, and distributed liquid energy, will coexist for a long time." ”
According to this, the next electric vehicle battery technology, and even the power direction of new energy vehicles, will maintain the pattern of "immortal fighting" for a long time. But it is our turn to consumers to tangle, when the time comes, do we choose to hybrid or electric? Or hydrogen fuel, methanol?
Write at the end
Compared with the past spontaneous combustion, second-hand car residue into slag, the impression of electric vehicles in the past two years has improved, but it is obviously not satisfactory, such as the endurance is still 60% off, to 500 kilometers to actually run 300 kilometers, the legs are still short, and there will be less in winter, such as price instability, and the price increase cannot be hurt at any time.
Electric vehicles are currently in such a development, but not fully developed in the embarrassing stage, for consumers to choose electric vehicles, I suggest is to be prepared for an inclusive mentality, and the electric vehicle as a travel redundancy to consider, that is, in the optional case of preferential selection of electric vehicles, when necessary there are other options.
Again, whether it is a high-end car or a scooter, the best state of electric vehicles at the moment is to be the second car at home.