The scale of the increased number of people in the high-end car market tends to be stable, but within the same size of the population, because of the higher acceptance of new things, the product evolution speed of the high-end car market is much higher than that of the mainstream car market. This speed of evolution will pose the greatest threat to traditional luxury brands that maintain sales and profits with brand power.
Sales: Electric vehicle share surges to 18%
1. Sales volume of high-end vehicles in February
New vehicle sales in the high-end car market in February were 198,413 units, down 10.9% year-on-year, accounting for 17.2% of the passenger car market, comparable to the same level as the same period last year. New car sales in the high-end car market in January-February fell by 4.2% year-on-year, and the market share slightly increased to 17.5% from 17.1% in the same period last year.
From the perspective of power type, pure electric vehicles in the high-end car market accounted for 18% in February, and the penetration of electric vehicles into the high-end car market was manifested in sales, essentially intercepting the potential increase in the future of traditional luxury brands in advance.
2. Share by city line level and price segment
According to the city line level, first- and second-tier cities account for 77.5% of the high-end car market. Regional economic differences determine that high-end cars cannot be blindly sinking, and the main battlefield is still a high-line city. Therefore, the change of crowds and consumer demand in high-tier cities is the fundamental driving force for self-innovation in the high-end car market.
According to the price segment, 250,000-500,000 yuan accounts for 82% of the high-end car market. Among them, the high-end car market of 250,000-400,000 yuan has formed a strong crackdown on the mainstream car market and occupied a considerable first-time purchase market in high-tier cities. The 400,000-500,000 yuan additional purchase market will be the next potential market for strong penetration of innovative smart electric vehicles.
3. Sales of models in price segments
In the range of 250,000-400,000 yuan, although Tesla still has more than half of its production capacity supplied overseas, the Model Y is still the only model in the high-end car market in February that has sold more than 10,000 yuan, and the continuous accumulation of orders in its hands is the basis for its continuous surprise price increase in March. At the same time, the sales balance of the three medium-sized cars of BMW 3 Series, Audi A4 and Mercedes-Benz C-Class was broken, and the sales volume in the first two months showed a step distribution, of which last year's replacement of the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, because of the high-priced and small displacement product definition and the constant public opinion word of mouth, sales have not returned to normal.
In the range of 400,000-500,000 yuan, BBA medium-sized SUVs and medium-sized and large cars still occupy the top six. But similar to the potential impact of electric vehicles on BBA mid-size car sales, the upcoming new round of flagships of new car-making forces will revitalize this long-dormant monopoly market, and the subsequent change of consumer values will prove that the BBA that can beat the BBA must not be a better BBA.
The range of 500,000-700,000 yuan is the smallest market share of high-end cars, luxury brands are mainly personalized niche cars in this price segment, and the mainstream models are only Weilai ES8, Volvo XC90, Aviator and other medium- and large-sized SUVs that are dislocated and competitive. However, as the price of the domestic BMW X5L may further explore, it may trigger a chain reaction of Mercedes-Benz and Audi to the market segment.
In the range of 70-1 million yuan, the overall demand for ride-on luxury flagship cars is weakening, and the Mercedes-Benz S-class with the strongest brand power has formed a significant gap with the BMW 7 Series and Audi A8 in terms of product force orientation, public opinion influence and terminal average price, while Mercedes-Benz GLE and BMW X5 have also formed a dimensional advantage over the Audi Q7. At this time, Porsche even needs to take on the task of sharing a part of the Volkswagen Group in the high-end market, competing with The Panamera and Cayenne to make up for the market that Audi has left behind.
In the range of more than 1 million yuan, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and Land Rover, the three luxury brands with the highest average price, have an unshakable advantage. This advantage will not be broken by existing models, and can only be subverted by the general trend of automobile development.
Event: Luxury brand recognition in the midst of change
1. A new round of knockout rounds for luxury brands begins
Acura, which has sold 385 vehicles in January and February this year, has reported the news of withdrawing from the Chinese market; Infiniti, which has accumulated sales of 1,612 vehicles, is not in a market segment that can obtain a large volume; Jaguar, which has accumulated sales of 2,143 vehicles, has almost stopped product updates and is planning to transform into an ultra-luxury electrification brand in the global plan. These three brands are also the overseas luxury brands with the largest year-on-year decline. On the contrary, Lincoln, which has firmly invested in localization from 2020 and insisted on marketing domination with the uniqueness of the brand, has moved forward at the same time in terms of sales volume and terminal price stability in the overall decline environment.
The demographic dividend of China's luxury car market has disappeared, and luxury brands with outdated products, weak brand recognition, channel construction and service experience are not outstanding, and the trend from being marginalized to delisting is no longer alarmist. At the same time, the luxury car market is also the easiest market to establish brand reputation through innovation and subversion, which means that the luxury brands that are now at the top of the list also face invisible risks that are difficult to judge through existing market data.
2. BBA electric vehicles adhere to high pricing
The official price reduction of the BMW iX3 did not continue to the guidance price of the BMW electric vehicle and the subsequent new car, following the BMW iX to 74,690-99.69 million yuan on the market, the BMW i4's 44.99-53.99 million yuan guidance price, also did not exceed expectations, and the BMW 4 Series Gran Coupe high-power 2.0T model price is basically consistent.
Considering the previous guidance prices of Mercedes-Benz EQ series models and Audi e-tron series models, which are higher than the overall price range of corresponding fuel vehicles, it is not difficult to see that BBA is trying its best to maintain the price system it has established over the years, and does not want the emergence of electric vehicles to be shaken. However, the overall idea of BBA electric vehicles is still highly consistent with its fuel vehicles, and most of the user groups are also diverted from the consumer groups of their own fuel vehicles. In other words, the current potential users of BBA electric vehicles want to buy a "motor-driven fuel vehicle", and such product ideas are difficult to support their own high prices in the face of innovative products of new forces.
Trend: The sense of crisis in traditional luxury brands
1. New forces in the range of 400,000-500,000 yuan offensive
Tesla has proved that in the range of 250,000-400,000 yuan, a smart electric vehicle with an innovative experience can achieve better market performance than BBA models at the same price, and the market diversion of BBA models at the same price also begins to appear after about a year and a half.
So, in the price range of 350,000-500,000 yuan, can a new round of flagship product offensives of new car-making forces also have the same effect? Not impossible. New models such as NIO ET7, Ideal L9, Xiaopeng G9, and Zhiji L7 have won huge volume and expectations in the early stage of product dissemination. At the same time, compared with the BBA model, the product strength is not inferior, the degree of innovation and consumer insight is far stronger than the latter, with the same price as the BBA model, making 120% or even 150% of the experience. This will allow potential consumers of the new power flagship products to have stronger economic strength and value vision than BBA consumers of the same price model.
Moreover, even if the sales of flagship models of the new forces continue to expand, it is difficult for the BBA to see the clues from the current sales data, because consumers may not have walked into the BBA storefront at all, and the BBA does not know where they are. That is to say, the new car-making forces have completed the early interception of BBA's future users, consuming BBA's future development space.
2. Mercedes-Benz sales base discs are at risk
Entry-level models of luxury brands, including compact sedans and compact SUVs, are marginalized by the market. However, the greater risk for Mercedes-Benz is that the Mercedes-Benz C-Class has not returned to its rightful place in the luxury mid-size sedan market. From January to February this year, sales of mercedes-Benz C-class were less than half of BMW's 3 Series, down 42.9% year-on-year.
In theory, the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, which was just replaced in August last year, has the strongest freshness and topicality among the BBA models. However, the small displacement of the whole series of 1.5T, the repeated negative word of mouth after listing, the instability of production capacity under the epidemic and lack of core are hindering the sales of Mercedes-Benz C-class. Less than half a year after the listing, mercedes-Benz C-class terminal discounts have begun to be released.
It is not difficult to see from the sales volume that the sensual value of the Mercedes-Benz brand for a new generation of consumers, especially the mainstream luxury consumers, has been reduced. Perhaps the mercedes-benz in the past can sell well without pleasing social public opinion, and perhaps the flagship-level Mercedes-Benz model still has an indisputable dimensional-level advantage, but from the sales performance of the new generation of Mercedes-Benz's A-class, C-class and GLA, GLB and other models below 400,000 yuan, Mercedes-Benz's sales brand power in exchange for greater profits has begun to approach the bottom of the cycle. Although Mercedes-Benz has been able to fully replenish its brand power through the replacement of models or flagship models, when the car enters the era of intelligent vehicles that can evolve, this practice of fully utilizing brand power in exchange for greater profits may be completely crushed by the new business model and operational thinking generated by technological innovation.