The high-end car market is undergoing a bottom-up revolution. In the range of less than 400,000 yuan, the new forces have disrupted the inherent pattern of luxury brands, and now this change has begun to spread to the backbone market of 400,000-500,000 yuan, the backbone of the traditional luxury brand. In the medium and long term, traditional luxury brands must of course innovate and evolve in line with the trend, but at present, when the product cannot be fundamentally changed, they must consolidate their own base market.
This base market may be a consumption upgrade, the concept of relatively traditional buying crowd, or it may be a high-net-worth group whose consumption power is not affected by the large environment.
Sales: A bottom-up shift in luxury perceptions
1. Sales volume of high-end vehicles in March
New vehicle sales in the high-end car market in March were 308,651 units, down 16.0% year-on-year, accounting for 20.9% of the passenger car market's new car market share. High-end cars are oscillators with peak capacity, large fluctuations in production capacity, and innovation and tradition, and the decline is higher than the overall level of the market. In the first quarter, the high-end car market sold 906,514 new vehicles, down 8.6% year-on-year, accounting for 18.5% of the passenger car market's new car share.
From the perspective of power type, Tesla's centralized delivery at the end of the quarter made the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the high-end car market reach 27.0% in March, and the share and fuel vehicles were lost. While hybrid and plug-in hybrid still maintain a market share of about 2%, most luxury brands will not invest more resources in the oil-to-electric plug-in hybrid models that aim at the policy.
2. Share by city line level and price segment
According to the city line level, the first-tier and new first-tier cities have accounted for 52.8% of the high-end car market, plus the proportion of second-tier cities has reached 80%, compared with 76% in January and 77.5% in February. On the one hand, the high-end car market still has to seize 80% of the high-end cities, and the sinking market is not so large; on the other hand, the high-end cities are more seriously affected by this round, which means that the high-end car market will face a more difficult situation than mainstream cars in the next 4-5 months.
According to the price segment, the proportion of the 250,000-400,000 yuan range increased month by month, more than 47% in March, and entry-level luxury cars and new power electric vehicles are accelerating their penetration into the mainstream car market and mainstream consumer groups. The 400,000-500,000 yuan is the mainstream luxury car market, the choice is relatively solidified, and there is currently a lack of incremental models that change the pattern.
3. Sales of models in price segments
In the range of 250,000-400,000 yuan, Tesla's centralized delivery sales in March crushed other models. In the first quarter, the Model Y sales were nearly 80% higher than those of the second place BMW 3 Series, the delivery of more limited Model 3s, and sales have been comparable to BBA mid-size cars. The acceptance of old models by high-end car consumers in the high-end market will be reduced by the continuous emergence of innovative models.
The range of 400,000-500,000 yuan is still an inherent market firmly guarded by the BBA. On the one hand, the users of this price segment are often upgraded from the mainstream joint venture brands of the previous era, and the consumer values are relatively traditional; on the other hand, the consumption guidance of new forces in this market is not enough to subvert the pattern of BBA construction.
The lack of mainstream models in the 500,000-700,000 yuan range may be improved because of the entry of the domestic BMW X5L, and the 2.0T model will enter the 600,000 yuan range, which will not only create a new increment, but also may further divert the Volvo XC90 and Aviator, which is already on the edge.
In the range of 70-1 million yuan, the demand for luxury brand flagship cars continues to weaken. The consistent strategy of BBA flagship cars is to seize high-net-worth users with stronger spending power with higher positioning. Therefore, the frontrunners in this price segment are Mercedes-Benz BMW's quasi-flagship SUV, and Alpha, which is more "cost-effective" than the luxury flagship sedan.
In the range of more than 1 million yuan, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and Land Rover all have irreplaceable products and brand status. Whether it is BMW, Audi or Lexus, there is a big gap. BMW borrowed the replacement of the flagship sedan, hoping to influence more potential users of the Mercedes-Benz S-Class with product innovation, which is a positive counterattack.
Event: Offensive and defensive battles in the luxury car market
1. The price of domestic BMW X5L has entered the range of 600,000 yuan
The lengthened domestic BMW X5L, 2.0T entry model gives a price of 605,000 yuan, which is nearly 100,000 yuan lower than the imported model under the premise of higher configuration. In addition to continuing to expand its own increment, this has formed another round of clearance blows to the Already average Sales Audi Q7 and Volvo XC90. The current mark-up phenomenon of the terminal can also prove the current supply and demand relationship of the domestic BMW X5L.
Whether it is Audi or Volvo, it is a luxury brand that should be able to do better in localization than it is now. For the Audi Q7 and Volvo XC90, which are near the end of the life cycle of this generation, their next-generation models, including electrified versions, should pay more attention to the Chinese market and invest more resources.
2. New domestic forces launch an offensive against the backbone of the BBA
At 250,000-400,000 yuan, the hundred flowers of electric vehicles have formed a interception effect on BBA mid-sized vehicles. In the range of 400,000-500,000 yuan, this trend has also begun to have signs. Nio ES6/EC6 has caught up with the second camp of luxury mid-size SUVs in terms of sales, and the delivery and listing of NIO ET7, Zhiji L7, etc., means that the electric vehicles of the new forces have begun to launch a frontal attack on the medium and large car market, the most stalwart of the BBA.
However, the loosening of this market is more difficult than the luxury mid-size car market. On the supply side, Weilai and Zhiji do not have Tesla's strong global brand influence and industrial chain system strength, and it is difficult to create a blockbuster like Model 3/Model Y in the short term. On the demand side, most of the large and medium-sized cars of luxury brands are upgraded users of mainstream joint venture family cars or medium-sized cars, and their consumption concepts are traditional and not easy to shake.
Therefore, in the competition for the most backbone market of traditional luxury brands, the new forces must seize the emerging population, target those potential users who may consume upgrades in 3-5 years, and do a good job of consumer concept and mental guidance in advance, so that they will no longer pay attention to BBA's medium and large cars, and take product innovation as an important decision factor.
Trend: The new era requires a new brand power
1. The positioning of luxury brand flagship sedans has risen
The replacement of the Mercedes-Benz S-Class proves that the pricing is more expensive and does not affect the choice of consumers of the flagship sedan. Because, in the consumer structure of flagship cars, the proportion of high-net-worth users is further increasing. The current BMW 7 Series and Audi A8, even if the terminal has huge discounts, it is still difficult to compete with the Mercedes-Benz S-Class.
Therefore, whether it is the exaggerated body size and configuration after the bmw 7 series replacement, or the Horch founder version created by audi A8 for the Chinese market, it is all in the promotion of positioning, the development of a more high-end product line, in line with the preferences and satisfaction of high-net-worth users, so that the overall product focus is biased towards consumers of more than one million yuan.
However, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class still occupies the largest dominant position, and the Maybach S-Class, which accounted for about 1/3 of the sales of the previous generation, has not yet been increased because of supply problems, that is, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class still has considerable room at a higher-end price. The Audi A8 Horch Founder Edition, both in popularity and product power, is inferior to the Maybach S-Class. The new BMW 7 Series, whose unknowns are still large, high-net-worth consumers will not have the patience to study elements that only geeks will care about.
2. There are new possibilities for luxury mid-size cars
There are two new forces in the luxury mid-size car market, one is the new power of electrification represented by the BMW i3, and the other is the new force of dislocation competition represented by the Lincoln Z. The former is the initiative of BMW to respond under the momentum of the new electric vehicle; the latter is a non-BBA luxury brand, in the gap between BBA and mainstream joint venture brands, the initiative to survive the exploration of survival.
What both have in common is the new price system. The BMW i3 is comparable to the price of the fuel version of the 3 Series, but the power is clearly superior. The main sales model of Lincoln Z is all priced within 300,000 yuan, and the potential consumer group of the horizontal model is obviously different from the BBA. And both have corresponding references, BMW i3 in the BMW 3 Series sales share, reference BMW iX3 and BMW X3 relationship, and Lincoln Z sales expectations, similar to what adventurers do in the luxury entry SUV market.