The choice of whether to buy a gas car or a tram has always existed:
Commuting to work, should I buy a fuel car or a tram? The first car in the family, should I buy a gas car or a tram? Consider a replacement, should the oil changer or the tram?
Based on the use of scenarios and psychological price tolerance, retention rate and other factors, coupled with the different acceptance of car purchase costs and use costs, buying oil cars or trams has been a tangled topic for many years.
In the past two weeks, there has been news of electric vehicle price increases almost every day, and Li Xiang, the founder of Ideal Automobile, mentioned in Weibo, "What does not rise is because it has not yet been negotiated." ”
Li wants to Weibo, someone left a message: new energy is 10,000-20,000 yuan at will, 20,000 yuan according to 10 yuan a liter of oil calculation, can add 2,000 liters, according to the 50L fuel tank to calculate, can add 40 boxes.
Some people also say that the price of oil vehicles in the second half of last year increased by an average of 10%-15% compared with the first half of the year, and the preferential treatment of oil vehicles was reduced, which is equivalent to a disguised price increase, which is much higher than that of trams.
From the perspective of the cost of use, Shen Hui, the founder of WM, calculated an account on Weibo: according to the calculation of 50 liters of refueling, it will cost more than 450 yuan. The 450 yuan fuel bill can charge an electric car for several months. According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of smart pure electric vehicles can save about 80,000 yuan more than the fuel cost of oil vehicles, which is almost equal to four LV or Hermès entry-level bags.
Source: Shen Hui Weibo
Interestingly, when electric vehicle manufacturers are desperately using the rise in oil prices to promote electric vehicles, in the face of one electric vehicle company after another announcing price increases, fuel vehicle companies have not taken the opportunity to create momentum, and if you go to the 4S store, the discount is also narrowed.
Price increase, the user's arithmetic problem
Xiao Zhang, who is in Zhengzhou, recently received a price adjustment message from BYD Sales, urging him to quickly set the price before the price adjustment.
At this time last year, he began to visit the store comparison, the budget of less than 200,000, the dealership has room for price, he feels that the preferential space is still very large. With a heavy rain in Zhengzhou in the second half of last year and the recurrence of the epidemic, the car purchase trip was shelved, and this year, the same trams and oil cars are more expensive than last year.
"Electric vehicle premiums have also risen, and oil prices have also risen." Xiao Zhang found that it is not only the cost of car purchase that has increased.
Xiao Zhang, who has been hesitant to buy an electric car or a fuel car, is more anxious.
Zhengzhou is not among the cities that restrict purchases, but because of traffic congestion and air quality problems, the implementation of the tail number restriction policy of motor vehicles, unlimited purchase but restricted traffic, has spawned different needs.
Driving an electric car can not be limited, and the two fuel vehicles in the family can also avoid the restriction to a greater extent, coupled with the cost of buying a car, the cost of use and the multiple considerations of the driving experience, the problem will come.
If you add the rising cost of using the fuel truck and the increase in the purchase cost of the tram, then what is the purchase? Presumably this has become a complex function problem.
Cities such as Zhengzhou, which have unlimited purchases, are actually more than cities with restricted purchases, so the demand is more complicated.
Fuel vehicles also have upward pressure on costs
Why are there fewer discounts for fuel vehicles?
Last year, the lack of core in the entire industry was not only plagued by new energy vehicles, but also traditional fuel vehicles, and the pace of production and sales was affected.
At the beginning of this year, Cai Yi, director of Changan Automobile's East China Theater, said in an interview with the media that the chip problem is still affecting the automotive industry, on the one hand, the lack of cores leads to insufficient output to meet the needs of consumers, on the other hand, it also brings greater pressure on manufacturing costs. According to Cai Yi, the average price of chips used in the entire automotive industry has increased by up to 20 times.
At the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also brought certain uncertainties to the global market business of multinational car companies, and Volkswagen and BMW have said that they have had a certain impact on their global supply chains.
The domestic epidemic is also affecting the production rhythm of automobile companies. In March, bmw's Dadong plant and Tiexi plant in Shenyang faced temporary suspension of production, and FAW Group's five major plants in Changchun also temporarily suspended production.
Lack of cores, the epidemic is still affecting the production of fuel vehicles, from the perspective of production and manufacturing costs, fuel vehicles are actually under pressure.
However, from the perspective of financial data, the cost impact of fuel vehicle manufacturers is not large. From the perspective of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Geely and other brands that have released 2021 financial reports, although there have been unstable deliveries in the past year, financial indicators have maintained a growth rhythm, which also shows that traditional brands still have certain advantages in profit model and anti-risk ability.
For example, in Geely's financial report, it is mentioned that licensing revenue has become a new profit growth point for the company, and technology output has also become an important and sustainable direction for Geely Automobile's future profit source, that is to say, last year, Geely relied on a series of cooperation between CMA and Haohan architecture, which has brought profits to Geely.
In fact, whether it is the rise in raw material costs, or the rise in oil prices, or the impact of the epidemic on market demand, etc., multiple factors are superimposed, and the ultimate test is the anti-risk ability of car companies, and the ability to bear pressure in the face of multiple blows, as well as supply chain management, cost management and profit model.
Traditional channel terminal price regulation mechanism
If maintaining profitability is the reason why the price of fuel vehicles does not increase, it is not comprehensive.
In the past few decades in China's auto market, I have never heard of "official decline", I have never heard of "official rise", or that the guidance price is lowered, it must be a big fanfare, but whether there is a price increase, in fact, it is not nothing.
Because of the large number of product lines and large channel networks, fuel vehicle manufacturers cannot simply rely on the adjustment of prices to solve the rise in production costs, and the common practice is to improve the sales process and adjust the sales policy.
The dealer authorization model of traditional 4S stores has many means for price regulation, adjusting the rebate model, promotion policy, pressing the warehouse or tightening the inventory, which can play a role in price control. Therefore, although there is no "official increase" for fuel vehicles, the tightening of preferential treatment and even the increase in price is equivalent to a disguised price increase.
Price is an important means of market regulation. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobiles, analyzed that the production and sales of the traditional fuel vehicle market are relatively flexible, the chip shortage in the early stage, and there is no price surge in traditional fuel vehicles, but with the dealer's distribution advantage, the channel dealer has a strong price adjustment ability to achieve stable demand under cost and supply changes.
This may also be the advantage of the dealer model compared to the direct operation model in the face of sudden changes in the external environment and supply chain.
However, the shortage of supply, or the narrowing of the discount rate, does not mean that the dealer's life is good. It's just that they didn't stimulate end users by directly announcing price increases.
Some dealers told PinChai that before June last year, it was a period of time when dealers generally felt better. The impact of the epidemic under control on regional markets is small, and market demand is also picking up.
Since June last year, the problem of insufficient chip supply has become increasingly prominent, resulting in terminal prices also began to rise.
The data of the Association also shows that since May last year, the trend of normal promotion increase has reversed into a characteristic of promotional contraction. The decline in promotions from August last year to January this year was particularly pronounced.
Data graph source: Multiplying association
Preferential narrowing, in addition to the manufacturer's narrowing policy, there are also reasons for the lack of terminal market. Some dealers told PinChai that from January to March this year, the entire terminal has not eased up, especially in March this year, because the temporary closure of stores caused by the epidemic has caused a decline in terminal turnover, and manufacturers are also tightening promotional policies.
However, in order to maintain sales, dealers will not strictly follow the manufacturer's policy tightening. "A car manufacturer promoted the recovery of 8,000 yuan, and we only dared to collect 5,000 yuan." We bear the difference of 3,000 yuan. ”
The so-called channel problem of wholesale inversion is only reduced to a lower degree, not disappeared due to insufficient supply.
More importantly, in the view of dealers, the competition between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is actually a competition in the cost of use, because the price of electric vehicles has risen, resulting in a trend of demand turning to fuel vehicles.
Therefore, this is also the reason why the fuel vehicle market has not taken advantage of the rising cost of batteries to create marketing opportunities.
At this stage, just because the entire market is not happy, the "price increase" of oil trucks has become inevitable.
Header image source: Sohu website