China's stock market is shocked by three consecutive yangs! Today's market direction is also in line with my prediction! Will it go up tomorrow? No, look bearish! And today's content is also in place! Whether you are afraid or greedy now, if you don't want to be covered in the subsequent market, or even want to gain something, please read the following 3 reminders several times!
1. A shares under the influence of internal and external liquidity
Maintain the bullish forecast at noon, at this moment A shares have indeed risen! However, although the predicted small Yang line has risen to the Middle Yang Line, I can feel that the upward attack momentum in the afternoon has begun to weaken slowly! Only because today's increase is larger than yesterday, but the intraday amplitude is much lower than yesterday, and in the context of the volume can exceed Monday, the increase is not as large as Monday! It can be seen that the capital side is still under great pressure!
This is inevitable in the context of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, especially since the end of the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen three consecutive yangs! This is the first time this has happened since the trend went down in December last year, which is really surprising! It is only the capital side behind the surprise, but it is easier to derive a wait-and-see mood, so as to deepen the differentiation expectation in the stock market! The kinetic energy of such a continuous attack is naturally weak.
Importantly, although external factors have a greater impact on the short term, in the long run, internal liquidity has a greater impact on A shares! And now the reality is that the latter is relatively abundant! Even if the Fed does raise interest rates in March, the latter may not necessarily keep up under the monetary policy approach of stability. In the context of this macro expectation, coupled with the fact that A shares have been adjusted for more than a month, it can indeed be seen that A shares are currently in the bottom area of the mid-line level.
In this context, combined with the prediction that this month will close red after the market on Monday, the monthly trend in this month will continue to attack is a high probability, but if you can't keep up with the rhythm, it will be in vain! The reason is very simple, only because many retail investors are covered, in the context of not knowing when to unwind, it is easy to be dragged down by their own immature mentality, so that they fall deeper and deeper. This is a common problem of most people, and they never seriously examine themselves before considering problems, and the so-called knowing oneself and knowing the other side can never be destroyed is this truth.
At the same time, I have to remind everyone that it is not easy to summarize the superficial phenomena that appear in the short-term market as a reversal. Only because the trend is not a day or two can be completed, even if this month finally received red, in the situation of not clear enough self-awareness, it is difficult to red to their own pockets. Then, once the mistake is made, it is likely that the disaster will be over! Only because although the probability of rising this month is large, but the market trend in the first half of the year is not optimistic, in this case, caution is naturally a long-term keyword.
2. Market rhythm
It is also important that even if it is currently in the bottom trend of the mid-level, it does not mean that the market will rise every day during the month! It's impossible! Therefore, before I was bullish this month, I also combined with the current situation to remind everyone in time that this month can recover up to half of the decline in January, specifically speculated to be near 3531! Just because this level is the high of the last week before the holiday, half of the decline in January started from this point! The other half of the decline was completed by accumulating 29 market days, so the trap above 3531 is very heavy, and the weight is likely to need to be repaired slowly in the same amount of time.
At present, through the continuous rise after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen to near 3485 at the highest level today! It is also only about 46 points away from the monthly pressure. Such a narrow space is naturally not enough to undertake the continuous upward attack of the market, and the probability of the next shock is naturally relatively high, so the core of this period is the market rhythm!
For example, combined with the pre-holiday trend here, on the surface, A shares have come out of the V-shaped reversal, which invisibly verifies a point I mentioned many times before, that is, when the A-share real trend is down, it will also be accompanied by an effective rebound. But in the same way, in the process of a downward trend, the effective rebound is only a rebound after all! The reason was made clear on Last Sunday, that is, most of the pre-holiday exit funds will enter the market within 3 days after the holiday, and at the same time, they will break through the decline relay of the last week before the festival in the first half of the week, that is, 3462, which has been mentioned many times in these two days.
And today is Wednesday, and indeed broke through this point, so the main force does not need to be tempted during this time. In this case, when the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the key pressure, combined with the characteristics of the stock market, the demand for the main position adjustment and exchange will also be amplified in the second half of the week! That's why I put forward the bullish trend on the premise of this week, and the probability of the trend during the week will rise in the half week and the second half of the week! And that's the rhythm of the market! At this moment, the speculation of the first half of the week has been fully verified, and it is natural to further explore the extent to which the next two days of this week will oscillate!
3. Forecast the market in the next two days
Theoretically, combined with the above-mentioned mid-line prediction that this month will continue to attack, and the short-term prediction that the second half of this week will oscillate, the Shanghai Composite Index will most likely enter a narrow range in the next two days, of which the narrow box is between 3462 and 3531 mentioned above!
However, at present, the 5-day line has turned upwards, and the 10-day line also shows signs of flattening. In this situation, at this stage of the short-term market, it will surely fool a large number of people to actively enter! Therefore, combined with the speculation of the increase in the demand for the main position adjustment and exchange in the second half of the week, there will be a demand for stepping back on the 10-day line in the next two days! At this moment, the line has run to the bottom of the narrow box, specifically near 3461.
Therefore, the general direction of the next two days is to turn around and penetrate the bottom of the narrow box, and then stabilize the situation back to the situation of sideways shock. At this point, it is clearly prejudged, and it will be bearish in the next two days! Support 3428, Pressure 3493! In the end, there is a high probability that two small yin lines will be closed in a row.
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