China Fund News Taylor
In the week after the year of the tiger, the mentality of shareholders and basic people fell to the point that they were about to collapse. In the current A-share market, the fund Jun feels that there is no good to fall slightly, and when it is favorable, it falls sharply. The unexpected data of the central bank on the 10th also failed to pull up A shares.
The ChiNext board, has been from December 15th no rebound fell for 2 months 22%, netizens joked that the world's most expensive ski track is the main wave of A shares, the most expensive skateboard is the GEM... Even if Gu Ailing came, he could only take the second.
4,000 A-shares fell
CATL fell more than 17% a week
Today's market shock fell, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low and went low. Coal, banking, infrastructure and other pro-cyclical sectors against the trend of strengthening, driving the Shanghai index briefly returned to 3500 points, but the afternoon market sentiment turned weak, the Shanghai index turned green fell more than 0.6%; the Ningde era fell sharply again, the tail fell more than 5%, dragging the ChiNext index diving down nearly 3%.
The Shanghai index intraday shock fell back, and then in the financial, real estate and other sectors driven by the pull up higher, once broke through 3500 points, fell back again in the afternoon, ending four consecutive days of closing the sun; the Shenzhen index, the ChiNext index in the afternoon sharply explored, the ChiNext fell nearly 3%; the turnover of the two cities has been enlarged, the whole day of the transaction of about 990 billion yuan; northbound funds slightly net inflow.
As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.66% to 3462.95 points, the Shenzhen component index fell 1.55% to 13224.38 points, the ChiNext index fell 2.84% to 2746.38 points, and the Shanghai 50 index rose 0.83%; the two cities traded a total of 991.5 billion yuan, and the northbound funds bought 1.005 billion yuan.
The ChiNext index fell by 5.59% this week, and the Ningde times fell by 17.32% this week.
In addition, nearly 4,000 companies fell
The fund Junshang looked up various retreats from the high point, and the casualties were a bit heavy!
Brokers sing the empty Ningde era
There is still significant room for decline in the future It is recommended to ship at a high price
The chief economist of Capital Securities said in a document that the stock price of the Ningde era has been pulled back from the high point, and whether it has fallen into place is the most critical issue at present. The question now is, will the Ningde era still fall? How much more can it fall? The report believes that from the perspective of short-term market sentiment, the future rise and fall of the Ningde era can be analyzed, and the stock price trend of Guizhou Moutai in 2021 can be referred to. Through fitting, it can be judged that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be 20% downside in the future, and it is recommended to sell.
Here are their points:
We believe that the trend of Guizhou Moutai in 2021 has a strong similarity with the trend of the Ningde era in 2022, referring to the trend of Guizhou Moutai, the Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term, and it is preferred to ship at a high price.
Guizhou Moutai is a consumer track, The Ningde era is a science and technology track, the logic and valuation of the two stock prices are very different, on the surface it seems that the comparison between the two is incompatible, but there is a greater commonality behind the trend of the two stock prices.
In recent years, value investment and track investment have become popular, and Guizhou Moutai and Ningde Times, as representatives of the two major tracks of consumption and technology, have been sought after by the whole market, especially institutional investors, which ranked in the top two of the heavy stocks in the 2021 fund annual report. Since both are market-wide red cards, the study of the fundamentals of both is certainly very comprehensive. Its impact on stock prices has long been reflected.
Since the fundamental changes are not large in the short term, it is more non-fundamental factors that determine the short-term stock price, such as the microstructure of the market, market sentiment and other variables. The Guizhou Moutai and Ningde eras, as representatives of the two major tracks, have too many similarities in these non-fundamental factors. Although people cannot walk into two rivers at the same time, the market's obsession with value investment, track investment, the operation mode of public funds, and the reason why human nature is unchanged make the stock price trend of the two very similar.
At the same time, CATL faces a similar market environment in Guizhou Moutai in 2021:
(i) The logic of the rise has been challenged
(ii) U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply
(3) The stock price is overswing, and the track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback of more kills and more kills
Overall, both are similar paths: due to various positives leading to market pursuit, seriously out of the current reasonable valuation, when the upward logic is greatly challenged, an external catalyst triggers a downward trend.
We will standardize the high point of Kweichow Moutai in 2021 and the high point of the Ningde era in 2022, and infer the future trend of the Ningde era from the trend of Kweichow Moutai. Judging from the fitting situation, the overall adjustment of the Ningde era has not yet ended, and there may still be obvious downward space in the future. There may be a rebound in the process of adjustment, so it is recommended to ship on a high.
If we fit the difference between the two and the difference between Wande all A, then the trend is more obvious, and the pullback from the high point of the Ningde era may not be over.
However, UBS believes that the recent decline in catheter era is due to the correction of the Beta value of the ChiNext board in the sector rotation of growth stocks to value stocks. UBS remains bullish on catheter era fundamentals, noting that the recently updated fundamental data of CATL is better than expected, with earnings data for fiscal 2021 30-40% higher than market consensus expectations. Company management attributed the strong earnings to: 1) the accelerated adoption of energy storage installations by electric vehicles, 2) the introduction of new capacity batteries, and 3) a decline in the control expense ratio for operating costs. Despite some one-off projects, UBS still expects the CATL Consensus earnings forecast to have a lot of room for improvement.
A real estate company plunged 80% intraday
Response to the "flash crash": there may be institutions maliciously shorting and then buying
In the afternoon of February 11, Hong Kong listed companies Zhengrong Real Estate and Zhengrong Service crashed in the intraday. thereinto. Zhengrong Real Estate fell by more than 80% in the intraday market, the largest decline in record, with the total market value falling from HK$16 billion to HK$2.97 billion; Zhengrong Services also fell by more than 85%.
On the news side, there are rumors that Zhengrong will no longer redeem the US$200 million perpetual bond as previously planned in March this year, and Zhengrong's foreign debt will be restructured.
In response to the above rumors, Zhengrong Real Estate responded to investors that the company would redeem $200 million perpetual bonds as originally planned, and the relevant rumors were untrue. For the sharp decline in stock prices, according to the Financial Associated Press, Zhengrong Real Estate said that today there may be institutions maliciously shorting and then buying, and the company is further understanding the reasons for the decline in stock prices.
According to public information, Zhengrong Real Estate, established in July 2015, is a large integrated real estate developer in China, focusing on the development of residential properties, as well as the development, operation and management of commercial and mixed-use properties. It has invested in the layout of six major economic regions in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Central, Western, Haixi and Pearl River Delta.
Medicine also collapsed
Today' collective decline in pharmaceutical stocks has become the main force of the market, and many sub-sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, new crown testing, and CRO have fallen in the front.
Finance and real estate soared
On the disk, related sectors such as large finance and real estate have strengthened today
900 billion giant Chinese Life rose 7% throughout the day, in the banking sector, Lanzhou Bank rose and stopped, Chengdu Bank, Bank of Nanjing followed; in the securities sector, Xiangcai shares rose in the front.
Galaxy Securities believes that the leading performance of the banking sector is mainly due to the catalysis of the 2021 annual report performance exceeding expectations and the increase in market risk aversion, and the follow-up spring market is expected to continue. At present, the valuation of the banking sector has a good margin of safety, and the allocation value of the sector is increasing.
The real estate-related industrial chain has risen sharply, and many shares such as Taihe Group, Nanshan Holdings, Zhengwei New Material, and AUCMA have risen and stopped.
On the news side, the supervision of pre-sale funds meets the unified regulations of the whole country, and the shortage of capital flow of housing enterprises is expected to be alleviated; the growth of credit union financing in January achieved a "good start", and the increase in RMB loans and social financing in that month hit a single-month record high. Shenwan Hongyuan said that the credit union financing "opening red" is full of color, the financing of the real estate industry chain ushered in a warm winter, it is expected that real estate investment will bottom out in the second quarter, and the probability of positive growth of about 1% throughout the year has increased significantly.
I wish you all a pleasant weekend...