A securities company released a research report with 20% room for adjustment in the Ningde era, which is very inappropriate

Analysts' views, in theory, as long as they are objective, are no problem, but in some sensitive time windows, it may not be appropriate to release bearish reports, especially in the public opinion atmosphere of A shares.

Today a brokerage bearish research report shocked the market, triggered widespread reports in the financial media, and became a hot news in the investment community, on February 10, the chief economist of a securities company and its research assistant released a research report, saying that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, the future may still have 20% downside, the report was released and the market widely spread time There is a certain time difference. The perspective of this research report is different from the traditional research report, not from the fundamentals of listed companies, but from the market sentiment and other aspects of quantitative analysis, the fundamentals are instead the uncertainties in the conclusions of the report. From this point of view, they believe that the decision of stock price trend is not the company's fundamentals, but investor sentiment, which is still in line with A shares. A shares themselves are an emotional market, optimistic, no bearish can stop the rise in stock prices, once pessimistic, any positive can not change the channel of the stock market decline, bearish naturally will be magnified into the cause of the stock price fall.

The research report said: "Analogous to the sharp adjustment of the Mao index after the Spring Festival in 2021, high-valued group stocks seem to have stepped into the same river again." After the catalyst of the rising logic is shaken, the high-valued group stocks are facing the dilemma of killing more, and the Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term. “

Judging from the current trend, it is indeed difficult to determine that the stock price of the Ningde era has bottomed out, because the big capital game is very fierce, and there are 300 million yuan and two financing funds on the 10th. However, there are also 129,000 shares equivalent to more than 60 million yuan of margin short selling, the long-short game is more intense; from the trend point of view, the bottom of the funds have been trapped, if the stock price continues to explore, do not rule out that the leveraged funds will choose to sell because of fear; in addition, the institutional divergence objectively exists, especially there are still more lucrative institutions, leaving the market still exists, the last few trading days are the amount of yin line, only one trading day shrinkage rebound, the weakness is more obvious; the biggest worry of institutional holding stocks, that is, once the institutional group is loose, the original positive feedback will dissipate, negative feedback will appear, the stock price will fall, the more the institution may leave the market; from a technical point of view , the downward 5-day line is about to form a counter-pressure on the stock price, and the stock price has fallen below the upper rail of the previous intensive transaction platform, once it falls below the lower rail, it will alarm the technical people to stop loss and leave the market or take profit out, which is not a good sign.

The research report compares Moutai in Guizhou with the Ningde era, and believes that there is a greater commonality behind the stock price trend of the two, "From the fitting situation, the adjustment of the Ningde era as a whole has not yet ended, and there may still be obvious room for decline in the future." There may be a rebound in the process of adjustment, so it is recommended to ship on a high. If the difference between the two and Wande quan A is fitted, then the trend is more obvious, and the pullback from the high point of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be 20% downside in the future. ", through the comparison with the trend of Moutai to derive the trend of the Ningde era, although it has a certain degree of comparability, but the quantitative adjustment space is slightly far-fetched.

This research report itself has no problems, but also a reminder to investors, pay attention to the bottom risk, the starting point is very good. The focus of the problem is that since entering 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have undergone a significant adjustment, which has aroused the attention of some people, the mainstream media published similar articles on the same day, cheering for the stock market, the most eye-catching of which is that A shares should stand up the backbone, but the effect is not good, especially the ChiNext board continues to fall, as of now, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 10.99%, the ChiNext fell by 17.34%, the small and medium-sized board fell by 10.18%, The Sci-Tech Innovation Board hit a record low and fell 16.35%. A share is an emotional market, in the pessimistic occasion, may amplify the bearish, this time the release of bearish reports, may be highly concerned by investors, join the selling army, increase the selling pressure of the Ningde era, increase the adjustment pressure. The importance of the stock market has been raised to a new height, bearing the heavy responsibility of supporting the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, supporting scientific and technological innovation and economic transformation, and supporting the increase in the proportion of direct financing, which requires a roughly stable index environment, without a good index environment, the normalization of IPO and refinancing is subject to great pressure, and the Ningde era is the absolute leader of the ChiNext board, and its rise and fall plays a decisive role in the index trend.

Therefore, although this report may be correct, the timing of the release is very inappropriate, and the "bearish" Ningde era conference call scheduled to be held at 20:00 this evening is temporarily cancelled, and the theme of the conference call is "How much can the Ningde era fall?" A quantitative analytical perspective", is it a coincidence? unknown.

In A shares, the release of rigorous views can sometimes not be willful, need to release positive energy, although the views may not be able to withstand the trend test, but has completed the task of boosting market confidence. Articles that need positive energy now are needed to cheer up the market, not to add to the blockage of investors.