Behind the sharp decline in the ningde era of stock kings, it is necessary to be vigilant against the joint selling of institutional leveraged funds

The rise in the Ningde era is not much, and the decline is equally eye-catching.

Recently, the trend of the Ningde era is not strong, as the absolute brother of the ChiNext board, the sharp fall of the Ningde era dragged down the ChiNext index, february 8, the Ningde era fell by 6.66%, Thursday Ningde era continued to diving, the maximum decline of nearly 9%, and fell below the 500 yuan integer mark, and finally closed down 5.32%.

Around the sharp decline in the Ningde era, various rumors in the market continue, one is a rumor that "the Ningde era is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of its sanctions by the United States." But catheter times has been clarified, today's social media rumors that recently a large insurance fund special account redeemed the fund share of Ceibes-Europe star fund manager Gülen, and it is said that the fund managed by Gülen was redeemed for 40 billion. Because it has laid out many high-level varieties such as the Ningde era at a high level, this rumor is not credible, because the institutional share may not be so much.

Although CATL announced a very beautiful financial forecast, on the evening of January 27, CATL issued a performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 150.75% to 195.52% year-on-year. However, with the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, each lithium battery factory is expanding production capacity on a large scale, and the future lithium battery production capacity worries are difficult to eliminate, in addition, as a lithium battery manufacturer, there is a certain difficulty in passing on the cost downstream, but the upstream lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, separator and electrolyte prices have risen sharply, many battery factories Have a decline in gross profit margin, although the Ningde era has a greater right to speak in the bargaining, but how the future gross profit margin evolves, the market may not reach a consensus, but the stock price has risen sharply, The price-earnings ratio of more than 100 times in the Ningde era still shows a high valuation. Dominated by market optimism, investors can ignore the high valuation, once the market sentiment turns, high valuation becomes the biggest fatal injury, valuation return is as inevitable as gravitational attraction objects falling on the earth, the key is how much this valuation is reasonable, is not unrelated to investors' confidence, and now A shares are outside the Fed tightening monetary policy troubles, internal IPO and refinancing normalization brought about by the pumping pressure, investor confidence is significantly damaged.

Judging from today's trend, more than 100 or even hundreds of hands of trading orders have appeared repeatedly, showing that the divergence of large funds for the Ningde era has increased, and the Ningde era has risen as an institution holding group stocks, and the stock price has risen thanks to the positive incentive of the group, once the institution has a difference of opinion, it will form a new negative incentive, the more the stock price falls, the more the institution will appear to sell further pressure, in addition, in recent trading days of the Ningde era, the two financing funds have declined, From 8.55 billion yuan fell to about 7.55 billion yuan, in just a few trading days, the two financing funds have been reduced by nearly 1 billion yuan, leveraged funds obviously help to rise and fall, the stock price falls, the leverage funds selling strength is increasing, rather than selling down, the third is whether there is a quantitative transaction brought by the Ningde era to help the fall, now lack of data, can not judge, quantitative transactions account for a relatively large proportion, but also help to fall.

As mentioned above, today's market plunge stems from a rumor, that is, institutional funds redeem fund shares, although this news is not very reliable, but now with the decline in stock prices, the net value of the fund is withdrawn, the basic people choose to redeem the fund shares out of risk avoidance considerations, it is not impossible, but the redemption pressure continues to increase with the decline in stock prices, which brings unimaginable pressure to the fund, is to sell heavy holding stocks, or to sell other stocks, other stocks may be less liquid, a slight selling of stock prices may flash crash, The liquidity of the group stock is relatively good, but because of the transaction congestion caused by the institutional group, it is easy to cause the tragedy of killing more and killing more, which further increases the pressure on stock price adjustment. Although the amount of Cataline Era is obvious, the turnover rate is not high, only 1.43%, but the maximum decline in stock prices is 9%, which shows that it is not easy for institutions to sell to cope with redemption pressure.

Institutional group operation, the rise in the stock price of the group is very cool, but in order to cash in the profit to withdraw from the group stock, if not in the investors' excitement, once the investor's mood turns, to make a profit to exit is a big problem, as long as the pressure is increased, the trader will feel the change in the disk, it is likely to join the selling team, resulting in a sharp decline in the stock price, everyone bears the loss of the stock price decline.

When the market is excited, there are well-known funds or star funds to join, which will attract a large number of funds to copy the work group, but once the market turns pessimistic, the new funds will be more cautious, do not want to rush to intervene in the star fund to lift the car or take over, let themselves be set at a high level, after all, once the star fund withdraws, the stock price wants to rise, it is more difficult, it is likely that the stock price will overshoot.

Now the institutional group stocks are facing an embarrassment, that is, the big financial strong protection, is the change of the fund investment style, or the national team into the market to protect the disk, it is not important, the important thing is that the stock of funds will be diverted, further increase the adjustment pressure of the group stocks, index stability, especially the stability of the Shanghai Composite Index is crucial, so as long as the entire market is still weak, the mission of big finance may not be completed, only the entire market is good, the big finance may become weaker.

Ningde era in the 500 yuan line is an important platform, but also a dense transaction area, has twice bottomed out, are near 500 yuan to stabilize and recover, once the market fell below this platform, means that many people will be trapped, this area from the support to the heavy resistance area. This is a personal perception and does not constitute any investment advice.