Introduction |
2022/01/14
Will the masses that have transformed the deep water area usher in glory again?
Author 丨 Du Yuxin
Responsible editor 丨 Cao Jiadong
Edit 丨 Chic
According to the trend video of the narrow passenger car wholesale data released by the association, we can see several highlights of the car companies throughout the year:
1. FAW-Volkswagen led the sales list of car companies in the whole year, and led the second place by about 500,000 vehicles;
2. SAIC Volkswagen tried to catch up, and finally missed the top three;
3. Geely officially defeated SAIC Volkswagen and entered the top three of car companies;
4, Chang'an, who ranked second at the beginning of the year, pulled his crotch in the last few months and slipped to the fifth;
5. Chery advanced, and the top ten independent brands squeezed into 5 seats;
6. Million-level sales of car companies reached 8, the highest in history;
……
These highlights have pieced together the pattern of the 2021 magic car market.
It is said that the chip has affected the Chinese car market, but from the overall growth of the car market by 6% in the whole year, in addition to the low base brought about by the epidemic in 2020, the Chinese car market has indeed shown unlimited opportunities and challenges in the outbreak of new energy and the rise of Chinese brands.
Their time is just around the corner
Looking at the bright spots that appear in front of you, do you think that there are too many incredible things in the Chinese auto market?
Who could have imagined that China's most powerful volkswagen brand would continue to suffer waterloo under the influence of lack of cores. Helplessly, at the beginning of the year, when there was a very lack of cores, Volkswagen had to tilt more chips towards the Higher Profit Audi brand, taking advantage of the continuous growth of the luxury car market and stepping out of the road of "low sales and high quality".
At the data level, we can see the sacrifice of the FAW-Volkswagen brand. In 2021, the sales volume of the North Volkswagen brand fell by 22% to 980,000 vehicles, officially falling below 1 million vehicles, and a number of Volkswagen brand SUVs fell out of the sales list, and the popularity continued to decline.
If the core shortage problem is alleviated in 2022, can FAW-Volkswagen's SUV products return to the track? This is not easy to judge, please don't forget, Japanese Toyota has put the SUV's chess pieces on the chessboard, pointing directly to the heart of Volkswagen, In 2021, Honda will occupy the city, and in 2022 it will be Toyota. It can also be seen from the annual sales ranking of the joint venture SUV that Toyota Honda has grabbed 6 seats, while Volkswagen only has a unique Tiguan and ranks only 7th.
Saic-Volkswagen laid out the SUV market earlier than FAW-Volkswagen, if the stubborn performance of Tiguan is the last dignity of Volkswagen, then the face of SAIC Volkswagen has long been a little disgraceful. As China's first passenger car joint venture car company, it was officially overtaken by Chinese brands in annual sales in 2021, which is the beginning of an era.
Yes, we all know that the masses are working very hard, from Dis to all the majority, are fighting to keep the glory of the past, but the fate is so, this time is the lack of chips, no one knows what is missing next? The times are like this, when running, I found someone standing behind me, but when I looked back, I found that people had surpassed me by half a body.
In the future, will the public entering the deep water area of transformation usher in glory again after the impact of the chip is alleviated? This is indeed a question worth pondering.
Looking at the independent brands, in addition to Geely, Changan, Great Wall, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Chery, which are already on the top 10 sales, the next SAIC Passenger Cars and BYD also have a rhythm of entering the top ten, belonging to their era, just around the corner.
There are only ten seats, but at least 15 car companies are ambitious, or step into 1 million vehicles, or hit the top ten. The next top ten car companies, there is no doubt that there will be a scuffle between all parties, who is on and who is down? Objective factors or subjective errors, everything seems subtle and cautious.
In the face of future trends, the author judges:
1, the gap between the inertia of the north and south Volkswagen will continue, but the annual sales level of 2 million vehicles, it is difficult for car companies to achieve it again in one or two years, at least Volkswagen can not go back;
2. If the effect of the ID. series is not as expected, the total sales volume of the Volkswagen brand in China may continue to decline, and it is not ruled out that the brand may fall below 2 million vehicles, and the myth of Volkswagen may be gradually eroded by several car companies that have broken millions;
3, 2021 chip supply affected the rise of the Japanese system, but the Japanese dual-car strategy has been laid out in place, and the next is the time to harvest;
4. The top three will be occupied by two independent brands in the future, and the top ten will be squeezed into seven independent brands, and the share of independent brands will continue to move towards 50%;
5. Sales concentration will continue to increase, and million-level car companies may reach ten in the next time;
The 20 million-vehicle Chinese car market and the Chinese market with a population of more than 1.4 billion, including China's ability and determination to promote new energy vehicles and even the rise of Chinese brands, will indeed make many unexpected things continue to happen.
Independently entering and exiting the joint venture, the chip of the pot you can not back?
Judging from the ranking of car companies, 2021 is almost a "nightmare" for joint venture brands. Looking at the year-on-year sales, from Volkswagen to GM, from Nissan to Honda, and even Mercedes-Benz, basically mainstream joint venture car companies, have ushered in a decline in sales. In particular, among the top 15 joint venture car companies, only Toyota has maintained the positive growth trend.
Yes, almost all car companies are complaining that it is chip supply problems that affect the production and delivery of products. The question is, why have a large number of independent brands not ushered in a decline in sales? Are independent brands not affected or less affected by chips?
In 2021, the chip saved the car company, but the chip is not a fig leaf.
The growth case of Toyota and its own brands fully shows that strong supply chain system capabilities, and even flexible flexibility, will become an important ability to compete in the future auto market. Just like car companies face the impact of the Internet and IT companies, whether they can respond quickly to make changes has increasingly become the key to determining the life and death of enterprises.
Therefore, the rise of independent brands in the fields of new energy, hybrid and high-end market segments has promoted the continuous growth of the share of independent brands. For the full year 2021, the market share increased from 37.2% to 43.4%, and sales increased by 1.8 million units and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. In 2022, this data will break out further, and 50% of the market share can be expected.
The decline in sales of single joint venture car companies has also directly promoted the decline in joint venture data. For example, Ashkenazi brands, even if the Volkswagen brand is very hard, such as the North Volkswagen has maintained a large lead, the South Volkswagen struggled to catch up from the 8th to the 4th in sales, but in the end Volkswagen still lost, volkswagen over 500,000 sales fell, leading the Ashkenazi share to lose the Japanese.
As the author believes in 2020, from the cycle of German and Japanese SUV strategies, the continuous expansion of the Japanese hybrid market, the transformation and lack of staying power of Volkswagen, it is judged that Volkswagen will drag the Germans to lose the Japanese system. In 2021, the Share of the Ashkenazi was lower than the 21.5% of the Japanese with a score of 20.9%, announcing that the Japanese car officially surpassed the Germans.
According to the data, in 2021, the German brand completed sales of 4.416 million vehicles, down 8.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 420,000 units compared with the same period, and vividly fell the annual sales of a medium-sized car company.
Originally, 2021 was the year of the Japanese counter-offensive, but the performance of this year was different, and Toyota and Honda and Nissan seemed to part ways. It goes without saying that Toyota naturally won the first foreign first in history in the US market, and in the Chinese market, it also boosted the Japanese to officially catch up with the Germans.
Nissan's defeat in the X-Trail three cylinder and Honda's supply chain have also reduced the share of Japanese car companies from 23.9% in 2020 to 21.5%, which not only leaves the Opportunity for German to breathe, but also further provides opportunities for the strength of Chinese brands.
Represented by the German and Japanese systems, which occupy half of the Chinese auto market, the trend of joint venture brands retreating and the pace of the general offensive of independent brands have formed the most unique landscape of the auto market in 2021. As for the American car, how GM counterattacks on new energy does not seem to be able to save the brand heat of the Buick and Chevrolet brands, and now the focus of the American car is more Tesla, but the United States occupies 10% of the market share, which is enough.
In fact, Tesla is not easy, not only because of the negative news frequent hot search, but also to accept all the same level of new energy products in China, so Tesla will also usher in an inflection point?
| Du Yuxin |
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