Fully electrified speed up, Honda can catch up later?
On April 25, Honda China held a Honda e:N brand night to announce the arrival of the first mass production model of the e:N brand:
●Dongfeng Honda e:NS1 was officially launched on April 26.
●Guangqi Honda e: NP1 will start pre-sale in May.
Honda's electrification business in China officially opened a new chapter.
Here are two more backgrounds:
● On October 13 last year, Honda China launched a new pure electric brand of e:N, announcing two mass production and three concept models, as well as e:N Architecture F and e:N Architecture W pure electric architecture.
● On April 12 this year, Honda Group announced its ten-year electrification plan, launching 30 electric models worldwide in 2030, with an annual mass production plan of more than 2 million vehicles.
Finally, Honda released its own full electrification strategy and put it into action. However, after an early wave of unsuccessful oil to electricity attempts, can Honda, which lost its lead, win back the initiative in the electric market with this rapid advance of full electrification?
In order to answer this question, it is necessary to talk about Honda's electrification strategy in a comprehensive and meticulous manner.
Honda Awakening?
Among multinational car companies, the Japanese are not active in embracing electrification. When Volkswagen, General Motors, Hyundai and other giants sing and Sing and continue to release forward-looking technologies and strategic planning in the electrification battlefield, the Japanese seem to survive on another world line that does not need electrification.
For example, before the Kick car gang, the "Lecture Hall" 800V high-voltage architecture came, do you still have mileage anxiety? It has been mentioned that "almost all the large domestic and foreign car companies you can think of have announced their own 800V high-voltage architecture layout." What is not included in "almost all" here is the Japanese car company.
Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota, the head of toyota, the leading big brother of Japanese car companies, has publicly stated that "electric vehicles are overhyped" and further stated in September last year that "if the [Japanese] government directly transitions to pure electric vehicles, it will mean the loss of 8 million car production per year and the loss of 5.5 million car jobs."
But when the global new energy automobile industry has clearly turned to electrification, the Japanese must also follow. At the electrification strategy media communication meeting in December last year, Akio Toyoda announced that it will launch 30 electric models in 2030, with an annual output of 3.5 million vehicles, and realize the electrification of global product lines in 2035.
Honda is also following suit, especially after Toshihiro Mibe took over the Honda seal in April last year.
At the beginning of his term of office, the three toshihiro announced electrification targets, and the proportion of sales of electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles increased to 40% in 2030, further increased to 80% in 2035, and reached 100% in 2040.
In its strategic plan released on April 12, Honda also announced that it will launch 30 electric models in 2030, including mini cars, cars, SUVs, MPVs and high-performance products, to achieve full coverage of commercial and civilian areas.
Specific to the major automotive markets, in North America, Honda plans to work with GM to jointly develop two medium- and large-sized SUVs, the new Prologue and a pure electric SUV under the name of high-end brand Acura, which will be launched in 2024.
In Japan, also in 2024, Honda will launch a mini-EV model with a price of 1 million yen for the commercial market, and then launch a mini-EV and electric SUV model for the civilian market at the right time.
The Chinese market is the focus of Honda's strategy for electrification. Honda not only has greatly advanced the launch time of pure electric products, the first products of the e:N series, e:NS1 and e:NP1, which will be launched in April and May this year, but also plans to launch 10 pure electric models in China by 2027, and build new electric vehicle factories in Guangzhou and Wuhan.
Honda did not mention the electrification plan for the European market, forgotten? Well, in fact, the European market has long been honda's focus, and Honda's only remaining British Swindon plant in Europe also announced the suspension of production in August last year.
The soldiers and horses did not move, and the grain and grass went first. Behind Honda's "Ten-Year Strategic Plan" is the determination to invest 8 trillion yen (about 62.3 billion US dollars) in research and development budgets, including 3.5 trillion yen (about 27.3 billion US dollars) in electrification and 1.5 trillion yen (about 11.7 billion US dollars) in the software field.
In the field of new technologies, Honda will also invest 1 trillion yen (about $7.8 billion) over the next decade, and will invest 10 billion yen (about $77.89 million) a year in startups with high-potential advanced technologies and business models.
In the battery field, Honda will invest about 43 billion yen (about $334.93 million) to build an all-solid-state battery production demonstration line and further accelerate research, aiming to start demonstration production in the spring of 2024 and apply its next-generation battery products to models in the second half of the ten-year plan.
As for the production platform of the electric model, in addition to the e:N Architecture F and e:N Architecture W pure electric architecture announced at Honda's China strategy conference last October, Honda will use the soft and hard combination of pure electric platform e: Architecture from 2026.
So far, Honda has clearly outlined the electrification route for the next decade.
Rich insurance?
Stepping into the electrified track as a catcher, Honda should be running faster. But when we carefully analyzed the ten-year plan and the first bomb model of the e:N series, we couldn't help but sweat for Honda.
Wrapped in the ambitious cloak of a decade-long plan, Honda is still slow to pace the pace of electrification. Before 2025, in addition to the Chinese market, honda will not see the possibility of the advent of heavy pure electric products and technologies.
Looking at the Prologue SUV launched in North America in 2024, it can be determined that this is a compact pure electric SUV with a size close to the CR-V, and the interior appearance of the model is dominated by Honda, but the battery, motor, and electronic control are all from the general Ultium Aotonon platform.
Sanden is the most core technology of electric vehicles, equivalent to the powertrain of fuel vehicles, in large multinational car companies, this level of core technology outsourcing is not common, at least will not appear on important models. Especially for Honda, Honda who "buys an engine and sends a car", Honda that has VTEC idol baggage, and the powertrain of a model like the CR-V will not come from GM?
Looking at the e:N series in the Chinese market, the two sister models of e:NS1 and e:NP1 are based on the e:N Architecture F pure electric architecture, which is a front-drive pure electric platform mainly used in small and medium-sized cars.
Front-drive, small and medium-sized dedicated, pure electric platform, this is a combination that is not common at present. In fact, when it was released last October, the e:N Architecture F was controversial over oil to electricity. Normally speaking, the native pure electric platform launched by major car companies can take into account a variety of drive modes and various models to maximize production efficiency.
For example, Honda's partner GM, whose re-injection Ultium platform in the field of electrification, has three electric drive systems: front drive, rear drive, and four wheel drive (which can be further subdivided into economy and performance), which can be combined with 7 drive combinations.
There is also Volkswagen's MEB platform that can cover a variety of models from compact ID.3 to medium and large ID.6, and Volkswagen will also launch an expandable platform SSP in 2026, when all volkswagen group brands, including Audi and Porsche, will be built on this super platform.
When e:NS1 and e:NP1 came out, whether it was the body structure of the two cars similar to the Guandao/UR-V, or the similar length of the Binzhi/XR-V and the same wheelbase (2610mm), they all hammered the "oil to electricity" attribute of e:N Architecture F.
Looking at major multinational car companies, most of them have already launched blockbuster models based on native pure electric platforms. More than 10 models of volkswagen's MEB pure electric platform have been sold worldwide, hyundai E-GMP's IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 were also launched last year and this year, respectively, and the LYRIQ of the Universal Ultraium platform was also mass-produced and delivered in the first half of this year.
In contrast, Honda's electrification is not fast. But after all, Honda has spent 8 trillion yen (about $62.3 billion), becoming the second largest automaker in electric vehicles and batteries to invest behind Volkswagen.
Could it be that Honda focused its breakthrough on the second half of its ten-year plan? Since you are already behind, simply skip this round, see you in the next round? At the very least, Honda's battery investment strategy is like this.
Honda's investment in batteries is focused on solid-state batteries, and it is optimistic that demonstration production of all-solid-state batteries will begin in the spring of 2024, even for models in the second half of the ten-year plan.
At this stage, Honda is not as deep as other car companies, deeply layout battery manufacturing. Honda's battery supply in China, Japan and North America will rely on CATL, Envision Power, and Ultium batteries procured from GM (the partner behind it should be LG New Energy).
It's an electric gamble! In Honda's envisioned script, there will be no big breakthrough in the new energy penetration rate before 2025, and there will be a big breakthrough in solid-state battery technology in 2025, which is the moment when Honda harvests the battlefield.
The plan was perfect, but the stakes were also great. If these two prerequisites do not develop as expected at the same time, Honda is very likely to swallow the consequences of the loss of market share, which will be a great challenge to Honda's financial health and brand appeal.
Where is the new story of faith?
Speaking of brand appeal, it also leads to the key to Honda's transformation, where is the new anchor of brand belief?
With the advent of the era of electrification, the power core of the car is converted from the engine and gearbox to the battery, motor, and electronic control, and intelligence is to transform the car into the world's most complex scientific and technological products. "Buying an engine and delivering a car" will eventually become history, and Honda needs to tell a new story.
The beginning of the new story can only be the advent of honda's original pure electric platform. Because one of the advantages of the native pure electric platform is that pure electric vehicles can be developed from the bottom and are positive.
The simplification and integration of the structure makes the volume of the electric vehicle motor and the electronic control system much smaller than the power system composed of the fuel vehicle engine and the gearbox. On the one hand, the space is released, or a front compartment can be expanded to fit a 20-inch cabin, or give full play to the characteristics of the short suspension long axle of the electric vehicle to expand the riding space in the car.
On the other hand, after removing the huge engine and gearbox, the electric vehicle can have more design space, which can be converted into the ultimate pursuit of low wind resistance at the front of the car, improve the endurance and reduce wind noise, and can also be transformed into the optimization of the body strength and improve the crash safety.
One of the meanings of the native pure electric platform is that it can give full play to the unique advantages of pure electric vehicles, rather than carrying the dual disadvantages of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, and getting lost in the shortcut of oil to electricity. Leveraging strengths and avoiding weaknesses and impressing consumers with the ultimate outstanding advantage experience is also one of the keys to the success of Tesla Model 3/Y.
Another importance of the native pure electric platform is closely related to intelligence. Taking Volkswagen as an example, the MEB pure electric platform is actually the beginning of Volkswagen's opening up of soft and hard. Based on the MEB pure electric platform, the E31.1 software platform with OTA capabilities has been installed on Volkswagen ID.3, ID.4 and other models.
In Volkswagen's vision, the ultimate pure electric platform SSP will be its soft and hard integration, by 2030, Volkswagen will have a total of 40 million different brands of the group's cars running on the E32.0 software platform, providing a large number of real-time data support for the evolutionary iteration of autonomous driving.
Although the E31.1 software platform is still just a car-machine system, although it has experienced twists and turns, it is an important step and a meaningful step for Volkswagen in the era of software-defined cars, because in the future, "software will determine who can ensure how much market share".
In this intelligent electrification revolution in the automotive industry, how will Honda reshape its core competitiveness and tell what kind of brand new story? At the very least, on e:NS1 and e:NP1, we don't really see it.
The author of this article is Sun Xiaoshu, a kicking car gang