Text / Seven Gong
Producer / Node Finance
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, it is time for the major car companies to "summarize and hand over the papers", and it is also an important window for the outside world to observe the enterprises.
On January 6, 2022, Great Wall Motor (601633. SH, 2333.HK) released report cards showing that it sold 162,369 new vehicles in December 2021, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year and 32.5% month-on-month; and in 2021, it sold 1,280,993 new vehicles, an increase of 15.2% year-on-year, a new high and exceeded one million sales for six consecutive years.
In fact, judging from the performance of Great Wall Motor in the first three quarters of last year and the sales situation in various months, it is not surprising to hand over such an "answer sheet".
As far as the market is concerned, what is more critical is to understand what Great Wall Motors has done through data representations. What did you do right? "In turn, there is a general grasp of its future performance support and value trend."
/ 01 /
Who is more and more in love with Great Wall Motors?
Putting aside the "national god car" Haval H6, which has always had strong sales, this time we put the anchor point on the new category of Great Wall Motors.
In 2021, Great Wall Motor sold 136,953 new energy vehicles, accounting for 10.7% of the total sales. Among them, the Euler brand increased significantly, up 140% year-on-year to 135,028 units.
Among the Euler brands, the best cat with the highest price is unique, with annual sales of 50,931 vehicles, accounting for nearly 40% of Euler's total sales, and in December 2021, it broke through 10,000 for the first time, an increase of 430% year-on-year to 10,685 vehicles.
It is not difficult to see from the above figure that since the listing of Euler Good Cat, it has shown a rapid explosive trend after the run-in of the first few months.
At the same time, tank 300 deliveries continued to rise, with 84,588 vehicles delivered for the whole year and 11,958 vehicles delivered in December 2021, an increase of 18.3% month-on-month.
As a car brand that deeply cultivates the professional off-road vehicle track, Tank has completed the comprehensive coverage of the high-end off-road SUV market from compact to full-size, with the matrix of "mecha technology" and "business luxury" two major products, and has now occupied more than 50% of the share of the Chinese off-road vehicle market, ranking first in this market segment.
In addition, haval red rabbit, haval divine beast, Wei brand machiduo, Wei brand latte, Wei brand mocha and other replacement or new models launched in 2021 have also won a good response in the market, such as Haval god beast, the first month of the first month of delivery of nearly 7,000 vehicles, there is a lot of potential to form a blockbuster.
The reason why the new products are taken out and said alone is also very simple, the new products not only contribute to the income increment of the enterprise, outline the future-oriented profit curve, but also inject impetus into the long-term development of the enterprise.
Borrowing Euler and the tank tube to peep at the leopard, Great Wall Motors' new products have two outstanding features: youthfulness + high-end. What is cut to the point is precisely the rise of the current Z generation as a new "consumption responsibility", and in the context of more substantial wealth and materials, and more and more high-net-worth people, consumption has shown a trend of transition from quantity to quality, from the past "enough" to today's "good enough", "enough technology", "cool enough".
Looking at the new products of Great Wall Motors, whether it is the name or the appearance, the intuitive feeling given to people is that they are young and energetic. In terms of inner temperament, there are different interpretations, such as Euler's "her strength", the toughness and cold play of tanks, and the fashion dynamics of Macchiato...
In recent years, there has been no shortage of voices in the market that the Haval pillar of Great Wall Motors has reached maturity, and the company will inevitably face growth difficulties.
In fact, if you look at the product matrix and new product growth rate of Great Wall Motors, you know that this doubt is a little superficial.
As we all know, the characteristics of new products are vigorous vitality, fast running, high jump, once they break through the sales boundary of "0 to 1", they will usher in the "1 to 10" skyrocketing, and will become a strong booster for the company's performance.
Wei Pai Machido
Or we can understand it this way, the current Great Wall Motors, like a warrior with both "shield" and "Mao", Haval for "shield", to resist strong enemies, the new product is "Mao", charging into battle.
In addition, different from the previous Chinese brand's main cost performance, Great Wall Motors' greater highlight this time is the value, the proportion of good cat sales of more than 100,000 yuan continues to increase, and tanks above 200,000 yuan are widely popular, showing consumers' recognition of the high-end brand of Great Wall Motors, and to a certain extent, the rank of domestic cars is raised by one level.
Deep behind it, based on forward-looking consumer insights and product layout, Great Wall Motors is looking for contacts to talk with young people, while shaping product power and brand power upwards, and finally realizing the effective connection between value and users.
When the young state + high-end successfully put on the market, reflected in the financial report of Great Wall Motors, the biggest change is profitability.
Node Finance noted that in the first three quarters of 2021, in the uncertain environment of rising raw material costs and facing the impact of sporadic epidemics, Great Wall Motor's gross and net profit margins reached 16.58% and 5.45% respectively, an increase of 0.07 and 1.29 percentage points year-on-year, ranking at the forefront of domestic vehicle companies.
/ 02 /
The adaptive evolutionary capacity of technology
Make money at both ends of the "smile curve"
In Alice in the Mirror, the Red Queen says to Alice, "In this kingdom, you have to keep running to stay where you are." ”
According to this, van Valen, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago, proposed the "Red Queen Hypothesis", which aptly depicts the fierce competition for survival in nature: natural selection only leads to the current adaptation of organisms, and the evolutionary function is the potential adaptation or ability to adapt to the future.
Reduced to the business society, the automobile is essentially a species of technology and innovation, and the fundamental driving force behind its sales growth or brand premium lies in the adaptive evolution of technology.
To put it simply, only by running and improving at the technical level can we emerge in the new round of drastic changes and reconstructions of the current business and the new round of scientific and technological cycles dominated by new energy and intelligence.
Falling on Great Wall Motors, only from the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021, we can see that in the new industrial cycle, the company has occupied a place.
Another example is the tank 500, which is priced at more than 300,000 yuan, equipped with the first set of 3.0T+9AT domestic high-end powertrain that is completely self-developed, and its good performance during the pre-sale period has verified the strength of Great Wall Motors in the field of core power technology.
3.0T+9AT/9HAT powertrain
Looking back at the process of Great Wall Motors in the field of technology over the years, it is just that it has been "climbing Mount Everest", and then naturally "laying eggs along the way", Euler, tanks, Wei cards...
At present, Great Wall Motors has three major technology brands lemon, tank and coffee, the first two focus on urban travel and professional off-road, supporting the development and production of models of different categories and different levels; the third is based on the underlying chip + operating system + front-end sensor, making reserves for the layout of the intelligent driving industry chain of Great Wall Motors.
In terms of more forward-looking hydrogen energy, Great Wall Motor's untaxed energy, which integrates the world's world-class hydrogen energy, fuel cell system and vehicle technology research and development team, has entered the opening stage.
It is worth mentioning that while maintaining its leading position, Great Wall Motors' thinking on technology reflects great comprehensiveness.
For example, at present, many new car-making forces have entrusted the heart (battery) of new energy vehicles to power battery companies, while Great Wall Motors is promoted by its own hive energy, which reflects the natural advantages of a vehicle company in reducing costs and controlling risks.
If Great Wall Motors' understanding and investment in technology are placed under the framework of China's real economy from labor-intensive and capital-intensive to technology-intensive, from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing", we believe that the company will also go out of the same path driven by technology, that is, in the next cycle, completely break through the bottom of the smile curve (manufacturing, assembly), and move towards a high value-added economic form based on technology, brand, patent, service and market.
Image source: Network
Although this may take a long time, the charm of technological innovation often lies in this, driving productivity, a small step of change may bring about the entire industry turned upside down; similarly, those companies that are a little ahead of the curve, a little ahead, will be much ahead of others in the future.
Cautiously optimistically, Great Wall Motors has accumulated more than 30 years of technology and volume as the cornerstone, entering the era of intelligence, and has more growth opportunities.
Suppose that a car company with annual sales of millions of dollars has at least tens of millions of users, once its intelligent proportion is improved, the collected data on the road surface will increase geometrically, and then feed back the algorithm to update and iterate rapidly, promoting the improvement and innovation of intelligent technology, and then building a "graben" for other competitors.
/ 03 /
New year
What are Great Wall Motors' growth expectations?
Based on the above underlying logic, it is necessary to re-examine the value of Great Wall Motors in the capital market.
Roughly repeating last year's investment style, on the one hand, the new energy, photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industrial chain stocks run through Changhong, on the other hand, the old "white horse stocks" are depressed and depressed. In the final analysis, it is to invest in the track, that is, the investment in prosperity.
The reason is also very simple, whales can only be raised in the sea. A good track means that the industry is far from the "ceiling", and the players in the industry, whether they grow tall or get fat, have enough room to move.
Then the enterprise that occupies an advantageous position on such a track, its growth rate will be relatively fast, the increment is relatively large, and investors often have a positive expectation for its subsequent performance and market value.
Specific to the new energy track, we analyze it from three levels.
At the macro level, under the leadership of the global "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peak" goals, the development of new energy has become the consensus of all countries in the world.
At the mesoscopic level, Chinese enterprises occupy a leading position in the global manufacturing industry chain for the first time, and have the opportunity to fully enjoy the results brought about by the expansion of the industrial chain.
At the micro level, the data shows that from January to November 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China were 2.99 million, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and it is expected to reach 5 million in 2022, still maintaining rapid growth.
In other words, new energy vehicles are not only a major proposition of this era, but also at least the general trend of the new cycle of the real economy in the next decade, and Great Wall Motors is marching in the high-boom channel, which is what capital likes.
From the relatively macro track back to the micro individual, for the leader of its own brand, in the first three quarters of 2021, Great Wall Motor achieved a total operating income of 90.797 billion yuan, an increase of 46.11% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.945 billion yuan, an increase of 91.13% year-on-year, and all the data have verified the stability of the basic disk.
On this basis, the technology landing has brought about the in-depth extension and commercialization of the automobile value chain, the gradual high-end of the brand has formed an "anchoring effect", the scale advantage has expanded the cross-section of the business, the Matthew effect has emerged, and the mind has seized the overseas market (in 2021, Great Wall Motors sold 142,793 vehicles overseas, an increase of 103.7% year-on-year, and the sales accounted for 11.1%, a record high), all of which are full of strength for Great Wall Motors to grow upwards in the new year.
To sum up, the industry boom brings beta to investment, good companies bring Alpha to investment, the two resonate, in the new year, the capital market can fully have more foresight for Great Wall Motors and retain more expectations.
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