On the 19th, the University of Michigan just released the preliminary value of the U.S. consumer confidence index in January reached 78.8%, far exceeding market expectations of 70.1%, and hit a new high since July 21, and the confidence index has climbed 29% in the past two months, the largest two-month increase since 1991.
According to the analysis, the main reason is that the recent record high rate of U.S. stocks has brought about a relatively large increase in the paper wealth of some residents, and on the other hand, it is also due to the fact that the current wage growth rate has exceeded the inflation data, and the real income of residents is also increasing. This has spurred a significant increase in consumer confidence that the market expected, reflecting the optimism of residents about the continued economic prosperity in the coming period.
The sharp increase in the U.S. consumer confidence index is also another proof that Yellen's recent announcement that the U.S. economy has successfully achieved a soft landing, which will inevitably stimulate the U.S. dollar index and the U.S. stock index to remain strong in the short term and fluctuate slightly.
Since I have always believed that the medium- and long-term resilience of the U.S. economy and the relatively weak economies of other major countries in the same period, I continue to be optimistic about the U.S. dollar exchange rate in 24 years and the later period.
