There are still a few working days to go before the May Day holiday. Since the Beijing Auto Show, which was originally scheduled to open on April 21, has announced an extension, some new models have been postponed, the attraction of new cars has decreased, and the provinces and cities have strictly controlled the epidemic prevention policy, according to the law of the impact of past holidays on car market transactions, under the influence of the May Day holiday, it is expected that the domestic car market will be boosted by the holiday in early May, and it is not obvious.
That is to say, the domestic auto market in early May is likely to be cold again. In fact, in addition to the reasons mentioned above, there are several reasons that are likely to affect consumers' car purchase plans.
The first is another round of new energy vehicle price increases that will be set off in May.
According to the previous price increase announcements of some new energy vehicle companies, starting from May, including The Krypton 001, Changan UNI-K iDD, Lantu FREE Pure Electric Edition, Weilai Automobile ES8, ES6 and EC6 versions of the models, as well as SAIC Roewe's new energy models Roewe i6 MAX EV part of the model and Roewe Ei5 and many new energy models, the official guidance price will rise.
From the perspective of the price increase, the maximum increase of the extreme krypton 001 reached 20,500 yuan, and the increase of the Pure Electric Edition of Lantu FREE and the various versions of the WEIO S8, ES6 and EC6 models also reached 10,000 yuan. Compared with the increase in some new energy vehicle models that have previously raised prices, this increase is not surprising.
As we all know, due to the decline in subsidies and the rise in raw material costs, the domestic automobile market in the first quarter of this year has set off a number of rounds of price increases, from the sales feedback of the market at that time, including Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, Nezha Automobile, Ideal Automobile and other new forces, as well as bydir, Euler, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen and other traditional car companies' new energy models, have been different degrees of price increases, the increase is also thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.
Logically, combined with the previous rise in new energy vehicle premiums and the rise in new energy vehicle prices in the first quarter of this year, the new energy vehicle market should have been affected by the decline, but what is surprising is that due to the continuous rise in domestic refined oil prices this year, the price of 92/95/98 gasoline has refreshed records, and the oil price has also spawned a "rush to buy" in the new energy vehicle market.
According to the previous sales data of the Association, in the first quarter of this year, there were many segments of the new energy vehicle market that were in short supply, including BYD, Tesla, Chery Automobile, GAC E-An, Xiaopeng Automobile, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile, Nezha Automobile, ideal automobile, including new energy sales, have reached a new high.
However, it is worth noting that although this wave of rush to buy has driven the market's consumption enthusiasm, in the long run, such a rise is not in line with the law of historical development, but because the cost of raw materials has been affected by the epidemic and risen barbarically, which has briefly stimulated the consumer psychology of "buying up and not buying down". If the price increase is too large, and it is affected by the generally long cycle of new energy vehicles, it is also likely to deepen the wait-and-see mood of domestic consumers.
Then there is the impact of the epidemic, the production capacity is blocked, and the impact of the recovery of the terminal preferential price in the automobile market.
According to the current national epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still relatively severe. Previously, He Xiaopeng, founder of Xiaopeng Motors, and Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, CEO of terminal BG, and CEO of smart car solution BU, have said that if parts companies in Shanghai and surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production in May, all OEMs in the country may stop production in May.
Although in recent times, the progress of the resumption of work and production of Industrial Enterprises in Shanghai has been significantly accelerated, it is reported that 70% of the first batch of 66 key enterprises set up by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have resumed work and production, but in the short term, from the production and supply of parts, to the production of vehicles in the vehicle factory, and then to the logistics and shipment to the store, it still takes a certain amount of time.
The panic that has spread to the end consumer market will still take some time to dispel. Because during this period, relying on inventory sales, some of the more popular models on the market, the terminal preferential price range is also likely to be reduced, and the preferential policies are likely to have a certain range of recovery. In addition, although the specific node of how long the Beijing Auto Show will be postponed has not yet been determined, the market has predicted that in order not to conflict with the Chengdu Auto Show and the Guangzhou Auto Show, the Beijing Auto Show is likely to be held in June.
Since most dealers will also increase their promotional efforts during the auto show, coupled with the attractiveness of new cars, under the dual impression of price and new cars, consumers' sentiment of holding coins is likely to deepen again.
So on the whole, due to multiple factors, many consumers' car purchase plans may be disrupted in May. Of course, in addition to these changes in the domestic car market in May, the implementation of the new regulations on motor vehicle registration is also related to consumers with car purchase plans.
Following the new regulations on driving tests officially implemented on April 1, from May 1, the new regulations on motor vehicle registration will also begin to be officially implemented, which mainly include six major changes, such as the exemption of new vehicle license plates, the registration of passenger cars can be "one certificate" nationwide, the registration of vehicle modification can be handled across provinces, the license plates of the same registered users can be interchangeable, the vehicle number plates can be self-selected, and the opening of online reservations and business handling.
The implementation of the new regulations will further break some of the shackles of the past motor vehicle registration regulations, improve the efficiency of licensing and handling, and improve the registration efficiency of car owners and users. This is also good news for consumers who have car purchase plans.
Red Dot Comment: On the whole, there were many changes in the domestic car market in May, and for consumers, the impact is still relatively large. So, under these changes, will you wait and see the "wait party" or will you place an order as soon as possible?