This year, because of the epidemic, all industries across the country have been affected to varying degrees.
In addition to the consumption and service industries that everyone can hear and see, there is one industry that is particularly difficult, and this industry is the automobile manufacturing industry.
Shanghai and Jilin, where the epidemic is most serious, happen to be the important cities of the domestic automobile industry. According to the data released by the statistics bureaus of the two places, the national automobile production in 2021 was 26.528 million units, and the output of Shanghai automobiles was 2.8332 million units, accounting for 10.68% of the national automobile production, ranking second in the country; and the automobile production of Jilin Province was 2.4241 million units, accounting for 9.14%, ranking third. Together, they account for nearly one-fifth of the country's output.
In fact, as early as March 13, the Changchun Bureau of Industry and Information Technology received an urgent report, the main content of which is that in order to cooperate with the overall situation of the province's fight against the epidemic, FAW Group decided to stop production from March 13.
Faw has a total of 14 plants in Changchun, including five vehicle plants, with a production capacity of about 46% of the entire FAW Group. In the urgent report, FAW's leaders optimistically expected the shutdown to last for three days. However, the reality is that it was not until the 11th of this month that FAW announced the full resumption of work.
Of course, there is not only one FAW that has stopped production due to the epidemic, and the car companies that have been greatly affected at present also include SAIC Volkswagen, Tesla, and Weilai. Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, for example, was shut down twice in March, the second time from March 28 to April. Throughout March, they assembled nearly 13,000 fewer vehicles in Shanghai than in January. There is also Nio, founder Li Bin explained that since mid-March, NIO has been in a state of supply cut-off, and the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production. Relying on the hoarding of materials, they barely held out for a while until the inventory was all exhausted and had to be discontinued.
According to data from two car companies, Tesla assembled 55,000 vehicles at its Shanghai factory in March, and sales in China exceeded 65,000 units, which was originally a state of insufficient capacity. In March, Weilai's sales volume was about 10,000 vehicles. According to the average price of 400,000 yuan in Weilai, a one-month shutdown will probably lose at least 4 billion yuan.
In addition to Jilin and Shanghai, the epidemic situation in Guangzhou, another major automobile industry, has also recurred, which means that the factories in Guangzhou such as GAC Toyota, GAC Honda, and Dongfeng Nissan, as well as many automobile factories in the surrounding Foshan and Zhaoqing, are also facing potential production suspension risks.
It should be noted that the suspension of production by car companies is only the tip of the iceberg under the epidemic. How to deal with the chain reaction of the upstream and downstream of the automotive industry chain is a more urgent problem that they need to face next.
According to the data, almost all of the world's top 100 parts and components companies have set up factories in and around Shanghai. From the first-tier suppliers of Bosch, Aptiv, BorgWarner, to chip manufacturers Freescale, Deyi, to seats, instruments, tires, wiring harness suppliers, as well as all kinds of plastics, plastics, metal products, glass basic raw material suppliers, there are thousands of large-scale suppliers. If you count small and micro enterprises, there are more than 20,000. At present, almost all of these parts suppliers have been affected, resulting in limited factory capacity.
In addition, it is not only the epidemic that affects car companies, but also the Russian-Ukrainian problem. Neon gas, xenon, krypton gas are essential materials in the chip industry. Before the war, Ukraine supplied 70% of the world's neon, 40% of krypton and 30% of xenon. Obviously, there is no chip without neon gas, and there is no parts for the car without a chip. Affected by the war, palladium, cobalt, nickel and other metals have also soared, palladium is one of the core raw materials of automobiles, 40% of the world's palladium, 95% of nickel are supplied by Russia. Now the price of a ternary lithium battery for an electric vehicle has risen by about 3,000 yuan. This is also the reason why many car companies have recently raised prices.
According to the latest data from the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile production and sales in March reached 2.241 million units and 2.234 million units, up 23.4% and 28.4% month-on-month, and down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively. At the same time, FAW-Volkswagen's sales fell by 40.2% in the first quarter, SAIC-Volkswagen fell by 34.5%, and Dongfeng Nissan fell by 33.5%.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "At present, the epidemic in Shanghai has only affected individual enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and if it continues, it may bring more uncertain impacts on the whole country, and we believe that it may bring 15%-20% of the production loss." ”
In addition to the open numbers, there are many aspects that cannot be quantified. In fact, compared with the entire Shanghai Port, these major car companies can only be regarded as small and big in the economic impact on the entire Yangtze River Delta and even the whole country. The president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China and the Shanghai branch recently said that the lack of trucks that can enter and leave Shanghai port has limited the transportation of products. Some local chamber of commerce member companies estimate that the recent cargo handling volume in Shanghai Port has dropped by 40% compared with usual.
In 2021, the revenue of Shanghai Port is 34.289 billion yuan, and the annual income of more than 30 billion yuan does not look particularly amazing, but it should be noted that this is a service industry, how many value products will be served by the 30 billion service industry income? In 2021, the throughput of Shanghai Port has exceeded 47 million STANDARD cabinets, which is equivalent to an average of 3.9 million in a month, more than 120,000 per day, a decrease of 40%, that is, a decrease of 48,000. The value of a standard container is large and small, the value of the goods is small tens of thousands of dollars, and the value of hundreds of thousands of dollars is not unusual, what is this concept?
Behind the 48,000 cabinets per day, how many businesses, how many jobs, and how much mortgage tuition? How many industrial chains have been affected behind this, which can no longer be estimated.
Behind the modern manufacturing industry is a huge industrial chain, and any problem at any node in the upstream and downstream may lead to the paralysis of the whole chain. Earlier, Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, said: Because if the car assembly is less than one part, the whole vehicle cannot be delivered, so Weilai can only stop production.
In fact, any enterprise is like this, some people may feel that it has not affected half a month, is not there a lot of government support? But in it, you will find that if there is a problem with a part, there may be a problem for the company.
Obviously, the enterprise is not as strong as people think, or the enterprise will be more fragile than we think, a first-tier city in the country needs a huge amount of assistance at the moment, the situation is still the same, so small as fine sand enterprises, how to carry through this pass, even if today's notice is all unsealed as before, but the industry will not immediately rebound, maybe with half a year or a year to make the industry slow down is not bad.
Of course, this price may be the failure of small and medium-sized enterprises, accompanied by the collapse of enterprises, the reduction of practitioners, and the scarcity of supply, then the few remaining fruits may be able to survive.