Author | Guan Xuejun
Source | Car selection network
News from Xinhua News Agency shows that FAW Group has gradually resumed work and production. Some people say that Xu Liuping, who was forced by the epidemic to "lie flat", finally stood up. In fact, xu Liuping needs a good external environment to really lead FAW to go up.
Affected by the epidemic, from the lockdown of Changchun on March 13 to the middle of April, FAW Group gradually resumed production and resumed work, so it was an abnormal suspension of production, and it lasted for more than a month, which is unique in the history of FAW Group's development. According to Xinhua News Agency, FAW Group sold 3.5 million vehicles last year, with an operating income of 707 billion yuan.
As of April 16, FAW Group's five OEMs in Changchun had resumed work, with a total of 7,438 people returning to work. It can be seen that the direct loss caused by the suspension of production is as high as tens of billions of yuan, and the loss of employee income goes without saying. However, the pressure on Xu Liuping's shoulders is by no means limited to this, because FAW's "lying flat" means that thousands of enterprises that provide supporting facilities for it have stopped production and reduced production at the same time, and the personnel involved are several times or more than the FAW Group. At the same time, FAW is a pillar profit and tax household in Jilin Province and Changchun City, and the suspension of FAW production has a huge impact on the local economy, and the pull-down effect of the industrial cluster led by FAW on the national economy is also obvious.
Although FAW Group resumed work and production at a faster pace, it is not easy to return to the level before the suspension of production, and it is almost impossible to quickly achieve the expected target for the whole year. Among them, the difficulties brought by external factors to FAW are both strong uncertainties and temporarily insurmountable obstacles.
For example, during the epidemic, Xu Liuping has great ability, and in the face of the requirements of the "dynamic zeroing" and "social clearance" policies caused by the epidemic, he is also powerless to return to heaven. And the epidemic is erratic, and the impact on industrial clusters has strong uncertainty, after all, it cannot be installed without a screw truck. Another example is the chip problem, which has forced many car companies to stop production and wait for the "core", in such a large environment, FAW can not stay out of the matter, and it is also difficult for Xu Liuping to cook without rice. There are also purchase restriction policies in some large cities, which objectively compress the market size, so that the whole industry looks at the market helplessly.
This year, the macroeconomic situation is quite severe, investment is declining, consumption is shrinking, and the automotive industry is bearing huge market downside risks. Fortunately, the central government issued a strategic deployment to unify the national large market, Xu Liuping and the CEOs of the whole industry led the way, looking forward to Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities to take the lead in canceling the purchase restriction order, and treat all new energy vehicles equally.
Before the purchase restriction, Beijing was always the largest automobile market in the country, and Beijing's purchase restriction policy not only removed the throne of China's largest market, but also led some large cities to follow the trend of purchase restriction. According to reports, the impact of the restricted purchase policy, the current national queue waiting for car buyers equivalent to more than 10% of the annual sales of cars, which is the highest in the world. In other words, the state does not have to spend a penny, just need to lift the local purchase ban to release the huge consumption potential.
In 2001, a macroeconomist from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out: "China's economy has reached a time when it cannot develop rapidly without the automobile industry." "Judging from the data in the first quarter of this year, the sales growth has been weak, and the April data may be negative growth." Since the reform and opening up, the automobile is not only a sustained growth industry, but also a leading industry in the manufacturing industry, if there is a downturn, the pull-down effect on the macro economy will be obvious, and the impact on China's manufacturing industry and employment is huge.
In the face of the purchase restriction market that cannot be opened, some insiders suggest that the policy of going to the countryside should be adopted to stimulate automobile consumption. The policy has indeed promoted the growth of automobile consumption before, but it was a period of rapid economic development, China's urbanization rate was not high, people have a beautiful and clear expectation of the future, and farmers have the strength to buy cars and dare to buy cars.
Now, let alone the countryside, that is, small cities have become net outflow areas of population, and who are the cars sold to in the countryside? Sell to left-behind elderly? After all, The biggest market for Chinese automobiles is in large cities, in cities with the highest consumption levels, and in cities with high employment rates. Although Xu Liuping is the boss of FAW Group (the eldest son of the Republic) and the leader of a large central enterprise, holding international and domestic high-quality automobile brands and products, what can he do in the face of policy restrictions on the market? If the companies at the top of the industry are full of difficulties, let alone other companies? On the other hand, if the whole industry is in a slump, how can Xu Liuping lead an old state-owned enterprise to rise up?
Some experts pointed out that you can't build a car without chips in your market. This sounds reasonable, but it is ridiculous. As we all know, what is missing is not products and technologies, but production capacity. Chip is a high degree of marketization of the product, once there is a strong enough demand pull, capital will promote production capacity to the direction of automotive chips. Therefore, this is both Xu Liuping's heart disease and heart disease, because with the resumption of work and production, the demand for chips will increase greatly, and the invisible hand of the market will pull the chip industry sooner or later to increase the output of automotive chips.
In this extremely special period, can Xu Liuping lead FAW to stand up and walk? If even FAW, the leading boss of the whole industry, cannot get out of trouble, then what will happen to the whole industry? After all, the automotive industry has a strong pulling effect on the economic recovery of the mainland, a strong driving role in the revitalization of the real economy, and the industrial cluster with FAW as the core plays an important role in the revitalization of the old industrial base in northeast China. To this end, we have selected Xu Liuping as the news figure of the week in this issue, and will continue to pay attention to the performance of FAW Group after the resumption of work and production.
(Image source: Internet)