Lead
March 25-27,
The 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum with the theme of "Welcoming a New Stage of Market-oriented Development of New Energy Vehicles" was held in Beijing.
from relevant government departments,
Industry institutions and representatives of leading enterprises gathered at the forum,
Discuss the development direction of China's automotive industry from different dimensions.
On March 25-27, the 2022 Electric Vehicle 100 Forum was held in Beijing, focusing on the theme of "Welcoming a New Stage of Market-oriented Development of New Energy Vehicles".
Senior leaders attending the meeting and leaders of relevant enterprises in the automotive industry chain spoke one after another to discuss the development path of new energy vehicles, the coordinated development of automobiles and multi-industry, strengthening international cooperation, and ensuring the supply of raw materials. China Automotive Pictorial summarizes some of the more critical statements.
Hydrogen energy enterprises are determined
Large dry hydrogen energy
Wang Hewu, deputy secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that from 2030 to 2035, to achieve large-scale promotion and application of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology, large-scale hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and application to achieve integration, hydrogen refueling station on-site hydrogen storage, hydrogen production scale standardization and promotion and application to a certain extent, to fully grasp the core key technologies of fuel cells, to establish a complete fuel cell materials, components and system preparation capabilities.
Chai Maorong, chief technology officer of the State Power Investment Group Hydrogen Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd., pointed out that by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy in our country will increase from the current 15% to 25%, an increase of 10 percentage points. The proportion of hydrogen energy consumed in terminal energy sources will increase from about 5% in 2030 to about 20% in 2050.
Qian Ting, managing director of Johnson Matthey's efficient natural resources sector in China, said that it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole mainland will double by 2050, and hydrogen energy will be widely applied to heavy-duty scenarios that require high energy density.
Yu Min, executive deputy general manager of Beijing Yihuatong Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out that by 2030, the market will enter a period of rapid development, with a vehicle scale of more than 1 million vehicles, and the demand for vehicle hydrogen will reach 4 million tons per year.
Marcus Steigenberg, head of the Energy Transition Forum, points out that hydrogen energy based on renewables is expected to become the most economical option in the next one or two decades, at least in Europe.
Huang Zhichang, executive vice president of Shell Co., Ltd. and chairman of Shell China Group, said that by 2050 or before, Shell will become a net zero emission energy company, this year Shell has about 90,000 charging terminals, by 2025 to achieve 500,000 in the world. In terms of hydrogen energy, we will achieve a global market share of more than 10% by 2035.
Zhao Bingdi, president of Panasonic Electric (China) Co., Ltd., announced that Panasonic will build a hydrogen fuel cell and cold and heating power integrated energy utilization project at its Wuxi plant, and build a zero-carbon building using hydrogen fuel cell systems, which is scheduled to be put into operation in June this year.
Chen Qingquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out that the mainland's renewable energy endowment is equivalent to 2.7 times the total peak energy demand of the mainland, but it needs energy storage to solve the problem of stable supply, hydrogen energy can solve the problem of large-scale power storage, and can also solve the problem of raw materials in the metallurgical and chemical industries that cannot be solved by a single power grid. However, there are still shortcomings in the key material technology and large-scale of the mainland proton exchange membrane, and the low-cost technology is still unresolved.
Commercial vehicles are new energy sources
and autonomous driving plays
Xu Honglei, vice president of the Planning research institute of the Ministry of Transport, pointed out that the carbon emissions of all commercial vehicles account for nearly 65% of the total vehicle carbon emissions, and the other 35% is caused by passenger car emissions.
Huang Chendong, founder and CEO of Shanghai Qianchen Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out that the carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are more than 20 times that of passenger cars, so clean energy is also the trend of the times.
Ma Fanglie, deputy secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that the new energy and intelligence of commercial vehicles have begun to show an explosive trend, but at the same time they are facing many problems and uncertainties.
He Mochi, president of Scania China Group, pointed out that the only way to achieve zero emissions in the commercial vehicle sector is biofuels and green electricity. By 2031, more biofuel technologies will be needed in the short term before the power mix reaches the lower carbon equivalents of electric vehicles. Reach 30% of zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030 and more than 90% of global zero-emission vehicle sales by 2040, recognizing that the remaining share of sales by 2040 should be driven by 100% fossil-free energy.
Ji Yizhi, general manager of the new energy division of FAW Jiefang Automobile Co., Ltd., pointed out that looking at the carbon emissions in all fields in China, the transportation industry accounts for 16% of the carbon emissions in the whole field, the carbon emissions of automobile driving account for 81% of the transportation industry, and the carbon emissions of commercial vehicles account for 56% of the carbon emissions of automobile driving. By 2025, 2030 and 2035, FAW Jiefang New Energy vehicle sales will strive to exceed 100,000, 300,000 and 500,000 vehicles, accounting for 20%, 50% and 70% of total sales, respectively.
Wu Xibin, general manager of Beiqi Foton Automobile Co., Ltd., said that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy products will be 100,000 vehicles, with a share of more than 15%.
Rong Li, general manager of Zhijia Technology China, pointed out that if driverless vehicles can be achieved in the field of commercial vehicles, first of all, the asset utilization rate can be increased by 100%; secondly, the transportation cost of logistics fleets can be reduced by 38%; the other is energy conservation and emission reduction, no matter what energy is used, it can save energy and reduce emissions by 10% on the basis of the applied energy.
By 2026, Xiaopeng Motors will be
Driverless transition
Xu Shuquan, deputy director of the Automobile Transportation Research Center of the Highway Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, pointed out that by 2035, the proportion of new energy vehicles should reach 50%, and highly autonomous vehicles will achieve large-scale application. In the face of this goal, the ownership of smart electric vehicles may be hundreds of millions of dollars.
Zhang Genqing, assistant general manager of Yangguang New Media Culture Media (Beijing) Co., Ltd., pointed out that between 2016 and 2020, the number of intelligent connected cars is increasing rapidly, and the proportion of the number occupied by 2020 has exceeded 51%.
Xie Qiu, senior vice president of China Innovation Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., said that by 2025, the sales of electric vehicles in the mainland will exceed 8 million, and the number of new energy vehicles will exceed 30 million. Technological progress, continuous enrichment of products, continuous increase in market demand, and policy guidance to promote the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the popularity of new energy vehicles has also driven the electric vehicle aftermarket into a stage of large-scale development.
Shang Guobin, vice president of Baidu and general manager of the intelligent transportation business unit, said that after years of technological breakthroughs, Baidu found that in fact, unmanned vehicles and autonomous vehicles can cope with more than 99% of traffic complex scenarios, but for unmanned driving is still a technology and industry that highly emphasizes safety, and the last 1% or even 0.1% of the scene is the key to the final decision on whether automatic driving can be landed on a large scale.
Li Yifan, co-founder and CEO of Hesai Technology, said that the real lidar mass production explosion should be in 2025, because the real explosion should be in the order of millions. This year is the first time that Hesai Technology has been mass-produced and delivered with a relatively large-scale lidar, on the order of 100,000 units.
He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, said that from 2023, Xiaopeng Motors will enter the era of "man-machine co-driving". By 2026, Xiaopeng Motors will transition to driverless. Xiaopeng will always adhere to the resources in intelligence, especially in the full-stack software for autonomous driving, and even more fields in the future, while exploring a larger and broader range of intelligent travel.
What kind of power battery
Is that the real trend?
Li Zhe, deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy Conservation at Tsinghua University, pointed out that the intelligent and fully automatic battery product design method can further improve the efficiency of single product development by 10-100 times.
Fan Wenguang, vice president of Shenzhen BAK Power Battery Co., Ltd., pointed out that the current power battery market is a situation in which three forms of square shell (blade), soft package and cylinder are divided into three worlds. Because of its simple and highly standardized process, as well as the reduction of structural parts at the package level, the simplicity of groups, etc., the large cylinder must have advantages in the overall cost.
Liu Jincheng, chairman of Huizhou Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd., said that the design and manufacture of large cylindrical batteries and even recycling can be standardized, and it is structurally stable in the whole life cycle, zero stress between batteries, and there is no change as always when the battery use starts to the end. And the cylindrical battery can achieve the ultimate manufacturing, its supply path is shortened by 30%, and its GWh production efficiency is higher. Large cylindrical batteries will become the main power supply direction for future high- and mid-range vehicles. Ewell Lithium can be optimistic about the large cylindrical and laminated iron lithium batteries are the main or ultimate development direction in the industry.
Liu Qing, vice president of Novelis' Asian automotive business in China, pointed out that the capacity of the second-generation aluminum battery pack has reached 106KWh, and the weight has been reduced from about 100 kilograms in the past to less than 90 kilograms. The cost has been reduced from 1,000 euros of the original model in the past to about 520 US dollars, and the mileage has been improved, achieving a 35% improvement, from the quality / capacity ratio to more than 42%, from the energy density to the energy density, to a very good 45% effect.
Li Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that so far, the inorganic solid-state electrolyte and raw materials of all-solid-state batteries have not been mass-produced, no supply chain has been formed, the polymer electrolyte cannot be directly matched with high-voltage cathode materials, and the interface resistance of all-solid-state batteries is still relatively high, and the low temperature performance is relatively poor. In addition, in the existing all-solid-state battery cell design, the impact of volume changes during the cycle has not been fully resolved, and higher external pressure is required during testing. In addition, the electrodes and batteries have not yet mature mass production equipment, and the power management system integration scheme and application scheme of the battery cell are not mature.
Ouyang Ming, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that in 2030, it is expected that the proportion of domestic all-solid-state batteries will not exceed 1%.
Will there be battery overcapacity in 2025?
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., proposed that it is necessary to adhere to lithium iron phosphate as the correct development path, and it is recommended to comprehensively sort out the layout and production capacity of lithium carbonate resources, increase domestic mining and foreign imports, maintain market supply and demand, stabilize price expectations, and promote the healthy and safe development of the industry.
Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that the cost of the battery system decreased from 1.43 yuan / Wh in 2017 to 0.84 yuan / Wh in 2021. But now the industry is facing a new problem of rising upstream raw material prices, Miao Wei said: Hoarding Juqifa ill-gotten wealth to crack down, but the trend of rising international bulk raw material prices can not be stopped.
Li Jian, secretary of the party committee and chairman of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, said that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery production in the future will gradually evolve to 6:4. The global lithium resource demand for the front end of cathode materials will require 900,000 tons in 2025 and 1.8 million tons in 2030. Guoxuan has invested in lithium resources in Yichun, and it is expected that by 2025, Yichun will form a lithium resource development capacity of 500,000 tons, completely ending the shortage of lithium resources in China. By 2040, the total demand for raw materials for manufactured batteries will be balanced with the total supply of materials provided by recycled batteries.
Ouyang Ming, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the global lithium resources economic recoverable reserves have increased rapidly, and with the gradual increase in demand, the new exploration volume and recoverable reserves will continue to increase, and the resources are completely sufficient. Mainland battery production capacity may reach 3 billion kWh in 2025, and battery shipments are expected to reach 1200GWh in 2025, of which 70% or 80% will be used in the domestic market, and 20% or 30% will be exported to overseas markets. We expect battery overcapacity in 2025.
Silicon carbide is the key to fast charging technology
Peng Peng, vice president of Huawei Digital Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s smart electric product line, said that in theory, increasing the charging power can be achieved by increasing the voltage or increasing the current. At present, the heat dissipation technology and cost limitations of passenger cars, 500A current is the limit. Therefore, it is more reasonable to increase the voltage platform of the whole vehicle to develop high-power fast charging.
Chen Zhaoliang, special assistant to the chairman of Sanan Optoelectronics and general manager of Beijing Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., believes that the key to achieving high-voltage fast charging is to increase the charging power by increasing the current or increasing the voltage, but because there is a foreseeable upper limit to the maximum charging current increase, it can only rely on raising the voltage. High voltage into the inevitable trend of fast charging, silicon carbide has a strong high temperature resistance, high voltage resistance characteristics of good characteristics, will be much better than the silicon IGBT of the entire device performance, very suitable for 600v to 10kv application range.
Cao Yanfei, senior vice president of Infineon Technologies Greater China and head of the Automotive Electronics Division, pointed out that the penetration rate of silicon carbide in the automotive field may reach 20% or even higher in the next five years.
Vehicle-station-network synergy is reached
Maximize carbon emissions
Sun Guangmin, vice president of Ideal Automobile, said that Ideal Automobile hopes to build more than 3,000 super fast charging stations nationwide by 2025. We hope that by 2025, all 36 of our national highways will be involved, and our supercharging stations can cover 90% of the mileage.
Rid Bartlett, global senior vice president of BP's future mobility business, said that in the future, BP will build a network of more than 100,000 electric vehicle charging stations by 2030 by creating a DC charging network that differentiates and integrates leading hardware (fast charging piles), develop charging network operation software and user interaction software, and digital solutions from the following aspects, and strive to build a network of more than 100,000 electric vehicle charging stations by 2030.
Yang Ye, co-founder and senior vice president of Aodong New Energy, said that the goal of Aodong Long-term Planning is to invest in the construction of 10,000 substations nationwide by 2025, forming a service capability to provide power replacement for 10 million new energy vehicles, focusing on extending battery life by providing power exchange services, and maximizing carbon emission benefits by providing power exchange services.
Wang Wen, deputy general manager of state grid electric vehicle service co., ltd., pointed out that under the current coal-power generation structure, when electric vehicles are charged in disorder, the carbon emissions may be higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and only through large-scale, large-scale, accurate and efficient vehicle network interaction, effective scheduling and control of electric vehicles can we achieve the full consumption of clean green electricity and give full play to the carbon emission reduction advantages of electric vehicles.