On April 10th, the first phase of the 100 Electric Vehicles - Fosun Forum, jointly created by The China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and Fosun Group, was held through video, and many guests from enterprises, media and investment institutions elaborated their views on promoting the development of the intelligent driving industry and discussed the topic of "bicycle intelligence or vehicle-road collaboration".
Zhang Yongwei, deputy director and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that the electrification results in the first half of the automobile revolution were remarkable, and new and old automobile companies were deeply integrated with the green energy industry chain. In 2021, China's new energy vehicle production and sales are 2.8 million, 2022 is expected to reach 5 million, by 2025 new energy vehicle production and sales are expected to reach 10 million, the penetration rate of about 30%-40%. The intelligent east wind in the second half of the automobile revolution is rising, and intelligent players are entering the game. It is expected that the intelligent penetration rate of L2-based will reach 100% in 2025.
Based on this, Fosun and China Electric Vehicle 100 will hold a series of forums as a mechanism to promote the cross-border development of automotive intelligence, and contribute to drawing a map of the automotive industry chain, promoting the development of new technologies and models in the industry, and establishing a data platform.
Tang Bin, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Fosun International, said that Fosun, as a family life consumption group driven by intelligent manufacturing and science and technology, has happy, healthy and rich ecological scenes, as well as an international layout, and is expected to help the development of the industry in the future through investment, incubation, BD, overseas mergers and acquisitions, etc., with the genes of Fosun industry and operation two-wheel drive.
Wang Lipp, global partner of Fosun Group and chairman of Jiewei Power, said that Fosun absolutely does not make cars, and Fosun values the intelligent driving industry that is larger than cars. Fosun hopes to explore the new lifestyle brought about by the liberation of passengers through intelligent driving.
Fosun Group Chairman Guo Guangchang, Co-Chairman Wang Qunbin, Co-CEO Chen Qiyu and Co-CEO Xu Xiaoliang, as well as Fosun Group Management all attended the forum online.
Ding Qingfen, special assistant to the co-CEO of Fosun Group and general manager of the strategic investment and development department, said that the series of forums of the 100 Talents Club-Fosun will be divided into five themes from downstream to upstream, namely "autonomous driving and intelligent networking", "localization substitution (including chips, software, etc.)", "ecosystem and life scenarios from the end of the car", "card neck supply chain and new technology breakthroughs" and "going to sea".
Smart cars will become the new ecology
At the Fosun Forum, CheYun, as an authoritative media and consulting institution in the field of domestic intelligent vehicles, was invited to participate. Cheng Li, founder and CEO of Cheyun, gave insights on the development of smart electric vehicles at the forum.
Based on the interconnection and cooperation of multiple fields such as automobiles, energy, information and communications, and smart cities, intelligent vehicles will be integrated into a new ecosystem with updated technology, higher computing power and more sensors. Its ecological scale, influence and associated multiplier effect will surpass the smartphone ecology as a representative of the new industry and the real estate ecology as a representative of the traditional industry.
Cheng Li believes that the leading force of the intelligent automotive industry comes from four aspects: 1) Internet companies that are closer to users based on software and data advantages; 2) technology companies that have technology empowerment or subversion strength based on cloud-tube-terminal full-stack technology; 3) car companies that are the main body of To C based on integration capabilities and delivery capabilities; 4) Tier1, which supplies assemblies and modules and gradually begins to extend the electronic and software industry chain.
Among them, cross-border players represented by Internet and technology companies enter the supply chain and vehicles through the open model of "platform + ecology", which will further promote the maturity of the supply chain ecology of intelligent and connected vehicles.
China will rely on its comparative advantages in the Internet industry and technology industry, and rely on its core ecological integration capabilities to complete the external curve overtaking and may lead the global automobile development model change.
Liu Hailong, vice president of Cheyun Research, also made a keynote speech at the forum. He believes that smart car 2.0 will build a new interactive experience, which will give birth to two main tracks of intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit. For intelligent driving, three major upgrades need to be realized in the future: 1) the intelligent experience is more personalized and provides more value-added services; 2) the high computing power architecture that meets the higher level of intelligent requirements at the product architecture level; 3) the business model level moves from isolation to ecology, with the characteristics of application stores and developer platforms.
Smart driving faces three big mountains
The development of automotive intelligence has attracted wide attention, and intelligent driving technology and applications are the focus of attention inside and outside the industry.
The domestic intelligent driving industry has been developing for more than ten years, and the intelligent driving technology companies represented by Baidu have also made good progress in bicycle intelligence and other aspects. However, due to many factors such as cost, safety and industry ecology, the current intelligent driving industry still faces many difficulties in the "vehicle side".
At the forum, Xue Chunyu, CEO of Fosun Intelligent Mobility Group and CEO of Fosun Intelligent Mobility, expressed his many views on the bottleneck of intelligent driving development. He believes that the development of intelligent driving is first limited by the cost of bicycle intelligence.
"(In the intelligent driving industry), the common cost of more than 500T and peripheral supporting facilities reaches 15,000-17,000 yuan, and 10,000T reaches 25,000-30,000 yuan; and the total cost of sensors and lidar on smart cars is 10,000 yuan jumping." The overall cost of autonomous driving is difficult for consumers to bear if the mainstream car price in China is between 100,000 and 200,000. Xue Chunyu said.
Zhu Lei, vice president of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Research Institute, has a similar view. It said at the forum that taking self-driving taxis as an example: at present, the cost of Robotaxi per kilometer has dropped to 1.83 US dollars / km, which has more advantages than traditional taxis in terms of operating costs. However, due to the cost of Robotaxi's bicycle transformation of up to 600,000 yuan, it is still difficult to popularize.
In addition, the difficulty in defining the right of way of the subject and the dispute over the division of accident liability are also important factors restricting the application of intelligent driving technology.
Xue Chunyu said that domestic intelligent driving car products are currently facing the difficulty of perception of the loss of computing power cost performance and superimposed complex road conditions, but also face the difficulty of making vehicle decisions on single point failure, dangerous road sections and other unexpected situations, and also face the restrictions brought about by supporting regulations and safety requirements.
In view of this, accelerating the reduction of the cost of intelligent driving applications, continuously improving the technical level of intelligent driving technology products, and providing products from the supply side to meet the needs of the industry are still the development essence of enterprises related to the intelligent driving industry. At the same time, all parties should work together to accelerate the definition of the main body's right of way and the division of accident responsibility, so as to pave the way for the large-scale application of intelligent driving.
Bicycle intelligence should be developed in parallel with the road
In addition to reducing costs and improving the level of bicycle intelligence, improving the level of coordinated development of vehicles and roads has also become a hot topic of discussion among the guests of this forum.
Zhao Xiaotong, general manager of Shougang Yipo Fund, believes that bicycle intelligence and vehicle-road coordination are not contradictory, and they have the same destination. Taking the parking lot as an example of a static complex scenario, cycling intelligence relies on vehicle-road collaboration as a better solution.
Xue Chunyu believes that in the face of the development bottleneck encountered by bicycle intelligence in the intelligent driving industry, vehicle-road collaboration should become the direction of attack in the field. "Vehicle-road collaboration as a national strategic direction has a certain trend, on the one hand, collaboration with bicycle intelligence can accelerate the landing of high-end intelligent driving, on the other hand, vehicle-road collaboration itself can be used as the foundation for the construction of intelligent digital transportation ecology."
However, compared with the dilemma faced by bicycle intelligence, there are not many problems faced by vehicle-road collaboration.
First of all, the path of vehicle-road collaborative commercialization is not clear, the main body is not clear, the industry participation is different and the application scenarios are restrictive; secondly, in terms of technology, the application scenarios and fusion algorithms are immature, the data and test systems are immature, the development of vehicles and road ends is not coordinated, the supply chain is immature and also faces security challenges. In addition, the overall regulations on vehicle-road coordination are not yet perfect, and the standards need to be improved.
Cheng Li believes that automatic driving to develop forward, first of all, in the bicycle intelligence to make a breakthrough, bicycle intelligence can basically solve the problem of information perception and collection and feedback within the visual distance, road end and vehicle road collaboration can solve the problem of information perception outside the visual distance, can form a good supplement, the two should be developed in parallel. But from the next five to ten years, the focus will still be on bicycle intelligence.
Not only that, at present, in the field of investment and financing, the current vehicle-road collaboration also has obvious disadvantages compared with bicycle intelligence.
Yang Anqi, executive general manager of Fosun Chuangfu Investment and CIO of Intelligent Mobility Group, said that from the perspective of investment, the investment of the car end and the road end is not binary, and both markets are large markets with extremely high ceilings. The current market maturity of the two is relatively different, and the investment strategy at different stages of development of the industry should be different - the competition in the field of bicycle intelligence is fierce and highly dynamic, and it has entered the three-dimensional all-round competition of technology, commercial landing, and capital operation ability, and it is necessary to find enterprises with high enough technical barriers and strong team resource integration ability to commercialize and land to cross the cycle; and there is still a problem of "chimney"-style construction with inconsistent technical standards and isolated data interfaces in terms of vehicle-road collaboration. There is still a long way to go from the manufacturer and the C-side to get operating profits.
In this regard, Cheng Li also gave evidence. Cheng Li said that Bicycle Intelligence has begun to form a wave of investment boom six or seven years ago, and there are still a large number of investment opportunities or industrial mergers and acquisitions opportunities in the future. In this context, there have been many tens of billions of dollars and hundreds of billions of dollars in the global scope of the birth of companies. There are fewer star companies in the field of vehicle-road collaboration, and only one Qianfang Technology is listed on A-shares, with a market value of less than 20 billion yuan. From the perspective of the number and scale of companies, the vehicle-road collaboration industry is obviously lagging behind.
Wu Sheng, founder of the scene lab, concluded that intelligent driving requires system solutions rather than a single technology, and the application of bicycle intelligence still depends on the scene. Intelligent transportation is an uncircumventable topic of the national carbon neutrality goal, and vehicle-road coordination is the key path for the country to change lanes and overtake, so there must be a consensus based on the protocol level for cost input efficiency and user acceptance.