Author丨Zhang Zhidong
Responsible editor丨Cui Liwen
Editor丨Chic
Will there be smart trams without lidar?
New energy vehicles are unstoppable, and the concept of intelligence and electrification is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. In such a large environment, in order to position the high-end products, car companies urgently need "plug-ins" to improve their image in the minds of consumers. As a result, LiDAR, which is the core perception sensor of intelligent driving, has been played by major car companies.
In the front, there is the Great Wall mecha dragon "less than 4, please don't talk", and then there is a three-way debate between Li Xiang, He Xiaopeng, and Xia Yinan, arguing about the configuration of lidar. Whether the lidar is redundant or not, whether the location is appropriate, the public is reasonable, and the mother-in-law is reasonable, can always arouse the widespread attention of the melon-eating masses in the industry.
Obviously, the same point behind this is that in the hearts of major domestic automakers, lidar has become a label to highlight product intelligence.
Up to now, including NIO ET5, ET7, ES7, Xpeng P5, G9, Revised P7, Ideal L9, L8, L7, Avita 11, Extreme Fox Alpha S Huawei HI Edition, Feifan R7, etc., several high-end new energy vehicles have put lidar on the car as one of the necessary means to participate in market competition.
The vastness of its market is evident.
Simply put, the role of lidar is not complicated, mainly used to solve the problem of forward and long-distance detection in the process of intelligent driving. What's more, it can accurately identify stationary obstacles ahead regardless of harsh weather conditions.
In order to cover a wider perception area, car companies either put it on the roof of the car when designing the location of the lidar to "see the mountains and small mountains"; Or placed on both sides of the front of the car, through the composite perception of 2 lidars, to obtain a wider and more suitable longitudinal and horizontal perspective.
It is no exaggeration to say that in the current domestic new energy vehicle market, lidar and intelligent driving safety are basically equated. The intelligence that consumers can see and accept is also a multi-sensor fusion intelligent driving solution based on lidar.
01
From mass production, jump capitalization
Tesla, the "crazy devil" of price reduction, can be described as a loyal fan of intelligent driving, but it is also a pioneer against lidar.
Different intelligent driving solutions have different pros and cons. or more conservative, with security at its core; Or it is more cost-effective, cost first. Therefore, unlike Musk's "deep hatred", the attitude of the domestic market to lidar is more positive.
If it is profitable, there will be a market; If there is a market, there will be people who choose to "swim against the current".
In 2022, Yole Intelligence released the 2022 Automotive and Industrial LiDAR Application Report. According to its content, in the global automotive lidar field, Hesai Technology ranks first in total revenue, and Sagitar Juchuang ranks second, followed by Velodyne and Outster.
Not only that, with the arrival of the wave of domestic lidar mass production on the car, the large-scale commercial application of lidar has reached an unprecedented state. Hesai Technology, Sagitar Juchuang, and Tudatong, which stands behind NIO, have become high-profile and hot suppliers of new energy vehicle parts.
You know, they are not just "nest horizontal", in the global market, their style is still the same.
At the recent CES International Consumer Electronics Show, LiDAR manufacturers such as Hesai Technology, Sagitar Juchuang, and Tudatong have made an appearance, including blinding LiDAR, long-range LiDAR, mechanical LiDAR, etc. And going abroad to "show" muscles also seems to have become a conventional development strategy.
In fact, when capital measures the strength of a lidar manufacturer, key elements such as technical strength, fixed-point scale, and mass production capacity are indispensable. The active overseas of lidar manufacturers, in addition to marketing publicity, actually want to attract the attention of the capital market.
It is reported that Hesai Technology has begun preparations for a U.S. stock IPO and will submit an application as early as this week, planning to raise $150 million. In addition, Louis Xie, a well-known US stock financial tycoon and former CFO of New Oriental and NIO, has been in place to escort Hesai's listing.
Based on the world's largest market for new energy vehicles, LiDAR manufacturers such as Hesai Technology, Sagitar Juchuang, and Tudatong will have unlimited quantities in the future. But the power of capital should never be underestimated. Use it well, overcome difficulties, and achieve twice the result with half the effort; If it is not used well, it is a talisman, a life-killing knife.
At this moment, Hesai Technology chose to launch the IPO charge again, which is not only a "daredevil" game, but also a strong signal that the domestic lidar industry has developed to a new stage - after the mass production of lidar, market capitalization is coming.
It is not ignored that as an auxiliary industry of intelligent driving of new energy vehicles, the challenges faced by lidar are just beginning, and they are very tricky.
02
Cross-border giants are coming, and hundreds of schools of thought are contending
Looking back, intelligent driving has been in people's doubts, walking alone. At the end of 2022, with the collapse of Argo AI, problems arose with autonomous driving companies such as Tucson Future and Pony.ai, which once again pushed the "cold wave" of intelligent driving to the table.
As an important part of the intelligent driving industry chain, whether it is the bankruptcy of the German ibeo, the originator of LiDAR, or the invincible Velodyne being forced to merge with Ouster, coupled with the capital environment in which the stock price of LiDAR companies has fallen by more than 80%, all suggest that this reshuffle belonging to the LiDAR industry is coming.
"BYD has a technical 'fish pond', which has all kinds of technologies, and when the market needs it, we will fish one out. Key core technologies must be self-reliant if they are not coming, bought, or bargaining. ”
As Wang Chuanfu said, the key core technology is the first competitiveness. At this time, BYD, which has tasted the sweetness of the layout parts supply chain, will certainly not easily let go of the bright dividends in the lidar market.
According to people familiar with the matter, in order to independently control the core devices and ensure the safety and reliability of the supply chain, BYD is comprehensively increasing investment in self-research and development of lidar. Moreover, BYD's senior management is very determined to develop self-developed lidar, and multiple technical routes are laid out, and the next generation of lidar technology is also in the planning.
In addition, people familiar with the matter also said that BYD not only has a horse racing mechanism, but also the investment of lidar-related resources has entered the "volume" stage, and it is expected to usher in a major breakthrough soon.
There is no doubt that entering the lidar market is not as simple as imagined.
At present, lidar manufacturers have difficulties in the capital chain, high costs, unclear technical routes, etc., and various problems abound. But seeing this cake getting bigger and bigger, the "smoke" of the giants in pursuit of profit is also restless.
Previously, Huawei had made a high-profile announcement that it planned to reduce the cost of lidar to $200 (about 1276 yuan) or even $100 (about 638 yuan) in the future.
As a recognized disruptor in the industry, Huawei's strong arrival will inevitably bring many variables to the lidar market. If nothing else, Huawei lidar + Huawei intelligent driving chip + Huawei intelligent driving software, the whole family bucket Hongmeng package, no competitor can afford it.
Although there is news that Huawei's lidar cannot be mass-produced due to production capacity and technical reasons. But one thing is for sure, Huawei's impact on major lidar manufacturers has become inevitable.
Similar to Huawei, DJI, which is also a crossover, is also trying its best to continue the story of LiDAR.
Xpeng P5 lidar mass production debut, DJI Livox name, fame. But because of various problems such as technical routes and mass production capabilities, he not only plagued Xiaopeng, but also lost his reputation in the car circle.
No, also during CES, DJI Lanwo released a 3999 yuan, 65×65×60mm in length, width and height, which is said to be the smallest 3D lidar on the market. However, as if there is a psychological shadow, the lidar avoids the application scenarios of vehicle regulations and is oriented to the field of industrial and unmanned logistics.
On the one hand, there are interests that cannot be let go, and on the other hand, there are market barriers that are difficult to cross. Under the tide of the times, the development of the lidar industry will always usher in variables inadvertently. Even the intelligent driving industry and the new energy automobile industry must go through various tribulations and challenges.
However, under the subtle influence of China's special market environment, the examples of Huawei, DJI and BYD also show that even if the road ahead is unknown and the good or bad is unknown, the entire lidar industry will still move in the right direction and make great strides.
Taking a step back, even if Musk is resolutely not optimistic about lidar, in China, lidar has begun to take root. When the green onions are full, someone will have the last laugh.