【Viewpoint】Chen Qingtai: The competitive situation of automobiles in the future and the road to automobile power

◎ Chen Qingtai, Chairman of China Electric Vehicle 100 Association

【Introduction】:

Recently, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022) closed in Beijing, focusing on the theme of "Welcoming a New Stage of Market-oriented Development of New Energy Vehicles", a total of 14 conferences were held to focus on industry hotspots and explore development trends. At the high-level forum held on March 26, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that smart cars are subverting functional cars, and in this automotive revolution, China's auto industry has changed lanes first, achieved some first-mover effects, and provided opportunities for China to shift from a big automobile country to an automobile power, but the window of opportunity will not be too long. The following is the full text of the guest speech.

In 2012, the mainland took the lead in launching the industrialization of new energy vehicles in the world, and in the past ten years, it has experienced the incubation period and growth period, and has gone through the stage of electrification development at a high level, and has also become the most active country in the innovation of new energy vehicles.

I would like to make three comments on "the competitive situation of automobiles in the future and the road to automobile power".

Smart cars are disrupting functional cars. It has a greater impact than smart phones subverting feature phones, more profound changes to the economy and society, and more obvious effects on social benefits. In this automobile revolution, the mainland automobile industry has changed lanes first, achieved some first-mover effects, and provided opportunities for the mainland to change from a big automobile country to an automobile power. But the window of opportunity will not be too long.

First, grasp the direction of the automobile revolution.

This automobile revolution is not carried out in isolation, parallel and connected with it is the new energy revolution and a new generation of mobile communications, is the transportation revolution and smart city; supporting this automobile revolution is the rapid development of mobile Internet, digital economy and artificial intelligence technology, these factors and automobile transformation blend and interact, for the future of the car electrification, greening, networking, intelligence and sharing to provide a technical foundation and rich use scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to put the future car in a larger category, evaluate its development prospects with a broader vision, and deploy its future in order to stabilize the direction of progress.

The future car is a powerful carrier for absorbing intermittent renewable energy; it is a link that links green energy, smart grid, future travel, and a new generation of mobile communications; it is the basic unit of intelligent transportation and smart city; it is a pillar-type leading product that drives technological progress and industrial upgrading, and it has a strong ability to widely absorb new technologies such as informatization, networking, intelligence, big data, cloud computing, new materials, electronic power, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, etc. It is a large platform for the integration and innovation of many industries. It is leading and promoting the economic and social and many industries to digital and intelligent upgrading with strong strength.

Electrification is just the prelude to this automotive revolution. At present, people's concerns about charging difficulties, short battery life and other issues are gradually becoming a thing of the past. For the benefit of residents, what has deeply changed the economy and society is the electrification, greening, networking, intelligence and sharing of automobiles. Finally, the collaborative integration of smart cars, smart energy, smart transportation, and smart cities will be realized. This is the direction of the next step of efforts, and it is also the focus of the next step of competition.

Second, attach great importance to changes in the "definition" and "attributes" of automobiles.

With the in-depth development of the automobile revolution, more and more high-tech companies have joined in, the scientific and technological content of new energy vehicles has become higher and higher, and the service software has become more and more abundant. Compared with the traditional car, its "attributes" have changed, its "definition" has changed; its core has changed, and its boundaries have changed. It is being transformed from a typical mechanical product into a digital product based on electronic power products, Internet products, and electronic information high-tech products based on mechanical products; it is a mobile machine from A to B, and it is also a mobile intelligent terminal with data determining experience and software-defined products.

An important feature of software-defined cars is that they have the ability to evolve themselves. Transform it from a "dead thing" that "starts to fall behind when it is bought" into a "new species" that can continue to evolve.

What drives the evolution of car functionality is data, while it is software that ensures data acquisition, processing, and utilization. In this sense, it is not an exaggeration to say that "data determines the experience, software-defined car".

That is to say, the same car, the same chip, the same computing power, but the data is enriched, the software iteration progress, not only can continue to provide users with safe, warm, pleasant new services, new experiences; and according to the user's preferences, the car can also become a "thousand cars and thousands of faces" personalized products and systems.

In the era of software-defined cars, manufacturers and users will transform from a one-time buying and selling relationship into a life cycle partnership, forming a virtuous circle of "users continue to provide data and manufacturers continue to expand services". That is to say, the business model of manufacturers is changing from "manufacturing" to "manufacturing + service", and the proportion of revenue from services will gradually increase.

In China, some cross-border enterprises and investors have bravely entered the field of new energy vehicles, forming a "new force of car manufacturing". So far, no second country has seen such momentum. This is both a major feature and a major advantage of China. Importantly, these "new forces" do not have the shackles of traditional car-making concepts and the drag on the asset stock. Their entry has brought new ideas, new thinking, new technologies, broadened people's thinking, and accelerated the process of innovation iteration. In particular, some new car-making forces with Internet genes have integrated the concepts of Internet thinking, networking and intelligence into product definition and marketing models from the beginning, so that the mainland has grasped the direction of networking and intelligence earlier. After the screening of "one rush to rise" and "big waves of sand", a number of "roots" with Internet genes have been left behind, which is invaluable. Entering the stage of networked and intelligent in-depth competition, these enterprises are likely to show stronger competitiveness.

Third, we must attach great importance to the opportunities for the restructuring of the automotive value chain and supply chain.

From the history of the development of the automobile industry, every important breakthrough in automobile technology and products is the result of close cooperation between vehicle and parts companies. Generally speaking, vehicle companies contribute to technology integration, but most of the core technologies and key components are from parts companies, such as gasoline injection, turbocharging, anti-lock braking, airbags, radial tires and so on.

Prior to this, the Attention and Investment of China's Auto Industry in Parts and Components was insufficient, resulting in the mainland automotive industry suffering from the bitter fruit of the hollowing out of parts.

The bottom of the automobile power is the parts power. The subversiveness of future automobiles to traditional cars will make more than 50% of the traditional parts system face restructuring. The new species of future automobiles has greatly changed the concept and scope of auto parts, from batteries, motors, electronic controls, and power semiconductors of new energy vehicles, to chips, system software, computing platforms, video sensors, lidar, controllers, and execution devices involved in networking and intelligence, to on-board control systems, high-definition maps, Internet communications, cloud control platforms, AI algorithms and other software and hardware have become an important part of the industrial chain.

Electrification, networking and intelligence are the three major characteristics of future automobile development. To win this automotive revolution, we must pay more attention to the construction of electrification, networking, and intelligence. The goal is to be autonomous and controllable under open conditions.

At the same time, the value chain is changing rapidly. Software will be the foundation and core of future automotive intelligence and competitiveness.

At present, the technical barriers and system barriers of future auto parts have not yet been formed, some technical routes still have room for choice, and many new technologies are still under development, which has brought historic opportunities for the development of special technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises for Chinese parts and components enterprises. It is gratifying that the new industrial chain involves the fields of informatization, networking, and artificial intelligence, all of which have achieved better development in the mainland in recent years. It is necessary to seize the opportunity to make great efforts in view of those short boards and "card neck" links, and strive to make breakthroughs one by one to change the hollowing out of auto parts on the mainland.

At present, the window period for China to become an automobile power is still there, and it is entirely possible for us to become a winner if we grasp it well.

I'll just say that, thank you!

Source: Electric Vehicle 100