"The overall supply chain situation this year is not optimistic." At the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Conference, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, talked about the current supply chain situation of Xiaopeng Motors, and said that he was full of bitterness of car companies with a sentence of "not optimistic".
While the development momentum of new energy vehicles is strong, the chip shortage, battery supply shortage and upstream raw material prices that began last year have become more and more intense, and the uncertainty caused by the automotive industry chain has not decreased but increased, and creating a safe, autonomous and controllable industrial chain and supply chain has become the key.
Multi-party pressure on the supply chain of car companies
Recently, under the influence of factors such as lack of core and lack of electricity, many car companies have joined the army of price increases. On March 16, BYD announced that it will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Network and Ocean Network, ranging from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan. Subsequently, Tesla's official website shows that the price of Tesla's Model Y rear-wheel drive version increased to 316,900 yuan, an increase of 15,000 yuan. This is the third price increase for Tesla in 8 days. Previously, new energy vehicle companies such as Xiaopeng, Weima, Zero Run, and Geometry have also taken price increase measures.
He Xiaopeng said that the tight supply of batteries last year was largely due to the rapid growth of demand for both new energy vehicles and energy storage. In addition, he pointed out that at present, the power battery will supply a large number of batteries to overseas markets, causing greater pressure on independent brands.
In 2022, the chip and raw material problems did not improve as expected, and the price of power batteries rose far beyond imagination. The sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has further aggravated the deterioration of the global trade environment, and the prices of raw materials such as nickel, aluminum and copper have also fluctuated greatly, and the supply of raw materials is still very serious. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the repeated new crown epidemic has also caused huge setbacks to the automotive industry chain. He Xiaopeng said frankly that under the influence of the current domestic epidemic, some areas of some cities have been closed, and domestic car companies cannot persist for a long time in such an environment. Therefore, this year's new energy vehicle manufacturers are suffering from three major challenges at the same time: materials (mainly batteries), chips and the epidemic, and the pressure is quite large.
In response to this round of raw material prices soaring, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association, said that there are four main reasons. First of all, the rapid development of global electric vehicle sales last year, driving the rapid rise in lithium demand; secondly, the demand amplification effect, the expectation is rising, the industrial chain enterprises to enhance demand expectations, expand production capacity, increase reserves; third, the long production cycle of battery raw materials caused a delay in supply; in addition, under the repeated impact of the global epidemic, the supply of raw materials, transportation and other mitigations have been greatly affected.
"Lack of core and lack of electricity" is a short-term phenomenon
Car companies trapped by the shortage of parts supply have either reduced allocations, increased prices, or repeatedly postponed delivery time, just to alleviate the pressure on the supply chain to a greater extent. However, these operations inevitably make many consumers dissatisfied. Euler, Xiaopeng, Zero Run and other car companies have been criticized for this.
However, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, pointed out that there is a general price increase in power battery companies, and vehicle companies have also begun to show a price increase trend, which cannot be avoided. "The price affordability of the new car-making forces is relatively strong, and the traditional enterprises that develop towards new energy are moving from the low end of the value chain to the middle and high end, and the price affordability is a little poor." If the price of upstream raw materials cannot be controlled, it will inevitably be transmitted and transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. Enterprises with higher pricing will be more affordable, and the pressure on enterprises that compete at low prices will be greater. Miao Wei said.
Ouyang Minggao pointed out that the mismatch between supply and demand of battery raw materials will be short-term, and the balance of supply and demand of lithium resources will take 2 to 3 years to return to normal. In his view, the driving force for the growth of electric vehicle sales will exist for a long time, but the demand amplification brought about by factors such as panic inventory reserves is a temporary factor. Therefore, with the improvement of supply capacity and the continuous release of production capacity, demand will return to fundamentals. From the supply side, lithium ore mining work has accelerated, is expected to reach the demand side level within 1 to 2 years, the problem of supply and demand imbalance will be alleviated. In addition, in Ouyang Minggao's view, the recycling of batteries can also create a considerable scale of recycling resources to solve some needs.
Similarly, He Xiaopeng believes that starting in the second or third quarter of next year, China's battery supply problem will be alleviated to a large extent. In his view, there is no shortage of power battery raw materials such as lithium mines. "Lithium ore resources are very much in the world, but the original production capacity has not been enlarged at present, which has led to lithium ore soaring from 20,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to the current 500,000 yuan / ton." He said.
Autonomous controllability is a prerequisite
Although "lack of core and lack of electricity" is a common problem facing the current global automotive industry, it has to be reflected that the mainland's autonomy and control in the industrial chain and supply chain are still a big problem. Shao Yuanjun, research director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Venture Capital Management Co., Ltd., previously told reporters that there are still some major battery raw materials in the mainland that rely on imports, such as lithium ore exports are mainly concentrated in South American countries such as Chile and Bolivia, which are highly susceptible to the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics.
In terms of chips, Miao Wei stressed that chips and operating systems have always been the shortcomings and weaknesses of the mainland automobile industry, and if you want to change the dilemma of "lack of core and less soul", vehicle companies must take action and cannot "dry call". "In the past, auto companies basically handed over to first-tier suppliers to do, and foreign auto factories have begun to invest in TSMC to produce capacity." he said. From this point of view, the premise of industrial chain and supply chain security must be to enhance the ability to control independently and take the initiative in their own hands.
At present, the mainland automobile industry is already accelerating the pace of replenishing chains, strengthening chains and fixing chains. Shao Yuanjun said that at present, the mainland has been mining lithium mines in Tibet, Qinghai, Yunnan and other places, but it takes time for these lithium mines to be truly supplied. In terms of vehicle chips, Huawei, Horizon and other companies are accelerating the research and development of independent chips to enhance the strength of domestic alternatives.
When talking about the current localization rate of parts, He Xiaopeng said that although the domestic production rate of auto parts in the past was not high, the proportion of domestic parts applied to automobiles will grow rapidly in the next few years. In his view, in the field of intelligent electric vehicles, the mainland has made great progress in the chassis system, control system, transmission system and other aspects. In terms of the power of electric vehicles, the mainland is in the forefront. In terms of intelligent system, in addition to the mainstream car chip, it still needs to continue to study, and it has strong capabilities in terms of application system. Therefore, He Xiaopeng pointed out: "From 2025 to 2030, we will see that China's smart cars are gradually going global, and there is a technical gap of about two generations or a generation and a half of mainstream smart cars in other countries." ”
To create an independent and controllable industrial chain and supply chain, multi-party cooperation is also required. As Ouyang Minggao said, in order to cope with supply chain security, government departments should introduce relevant policies and take effective measures to combat hoarding and curb short-term large fluctuations, otherwise it will have a significant impact on the development of electric vehicles. Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, also pointed out at the scene of this year's Electric Vehicle 100 People's Meeting that it is necessary to strengthen the coordination of the industrial chain and supply chain, give play to the leading role of leading enterprises, strengthen the connection between supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and ensure the stable operation of the industry.