Affected by the epidemic and the international situation and other factors, the price of raw materials for power batteries such as lithium and nickel has continued to rise, as well as supply chain disruptions, resulting in domestic new energy vehicle prices rising by 2-3 rounds since the end of last year, directly driving up consumer car purchase costs. This is not good news for both supply and demand. If the increase is small, some consumers may still be able to accept it, but the increase is too large, consumers can not bear, may directly affect the purchase of new energy vehicles decision-making, and then affect the overall development of the new energy market.
To solve the problem of soaring prices of new energy vehicles, we must first solve the price fluctuation of power battery raw materials, but from the current point of view, this market supply and demand is difficult to change in a short period of time, in the long run, the best way to solve this problem is to adhere to the diversified development of battery technology and materials, get rid of the current bondage of lithium and other raw materials.
Recently, Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum to consolidate the advantages of lithium-ion battery technology and industry, accelerate the development of new battery technologies such as sodium ions, cobalt-free, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, etc., promote the diversification of battery technology and materials, and encourage Chinese and foreign enterprises to innovate cooperation models and effectively alleviate the contradiction between the supply of rare metals and scarce metal resources.
Zeng Yuqun, chairman of THE NINGDE times, also believes that "carbon neutrality" has spawned trillions of watt-hour battery demand, promoted the vigorous development of the new energy industry, and continuously produced new application scenarios, giving a stage for different technologies to be displayed. Diversified technical routes will also help the long-term and stable development of the industry.
In fact, the power battery used in the new energy models in the current market is basically composed of lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries. In the first two months of this year, the loading volume of continental power batteries accumulated 29.9GWh, an increase of 109.7% year-on-year. Among them, the total installed volume of ternary batteries was 13.1GWh, accounting for 43.8% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 50.6% year-on-year; the cumulative loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 16.7GWh, accounting for 55.9% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 203.1% year-on-year, showing a rapid growth momentum. It is worth noting that the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary batteries for the first time in February.
In addition to the above two mainstream batteries, sodium-ion batteries, cobalt-free batteries, solid-state batteries and fuel cells have also developed.
On July 29 last year, CATL released its first generation of sodium-ion batteries, and at the same time, lithium-sodium mix-and-match battery packs also made their debut at the press conference. This is based on the "double carbon" economy and the new energy industry has entered a multi-level, multi-type, diversified development stage, and the new energy vehicle market has put forward differentiated demand for batteries.
Sodium-ion batteries have a similar working principle to lithium-ion batteries, mainly through the embedding and shedding of sodium ions between the positive and negative electrodes to achieve charge transfer, but the sodium ion volume is large, and the requirements in terms of material structural stability and kinetic performance are more stringent, which has also become a bottleneck for sodium-ion batteries to be difficult to commercialize.
Based on the breakthrough of material system, the first generation of sodium-ion batteries developed by CATL has the advantages of high energy density, high rate charging, excellent thermal stability, good low temperature performance and high integration efficiency. Its cell monomer energy density is as high as 160Wh/kg (the planning of the Ningde era, the next generation of sodium-ion battery energy density research and development target is more than 200Wh/kg); charging at room temperature for 15 minutes, the power can reach more than 80%; in the low temperature environment of -20 °C, it also has more than 90% discharge retention rate; the system integration efficiency can reach more than 80%; thermal stability is far beyond national security standards.
In terms of manufacturing process, sodium-ion batteries can achieve perfect compatibility with lithium-ion battery production equipment and processes, and the production line can be quickly switched to complete the rapid layout of production capacity. At present, CATL has started the industrialization layout of sodium-ion batteries, and will form a basic industrial chain in 2023.
At present, the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries used in the industry is low, but on the other hand, the energy density is usually 170-180Wh/kg; while the energy density of the ternary system can reach more than 250wh/kg, but the ternary material uses cobalt, subject to the reserves and mining, the international market price of cobalt is extremely unstable, and remains at a high level for a long time.
Cobalt-free technical route, mainly to balance the user's balanced pursuit of long endurance, high safety, high fast charging, low cost characteristics, based on the NMX-free route derived from the ternary system, cobalt-free materials can achieve high energy density cell product design.
It is understood that the cobalt-free material of Hive Energy has achieved zero cobalt, so that it is completely unaffected by the cobalt market and achieves low cost, while its energy density can be equal to that of ternary materials. Therefore, in the long run, cobalt-free batteries have a huge competitive advantage compared with lithium iron phosphate technology and ternary battery technology, which is an irreplaceable trend in the development of the industry.
The battery products made of cobalt-free cathode materials of the Hive Energy H platform can have a cycle life of more than 2500 cobalt-free batteries at room temperature. In terms of energy density, cobalt-free batteries can currently achieve 240~245Wh/kg, which is much higher than the 170~180Wh/kg level of mainstream lithium iron phosphate batteries, and is also very close to the 240~250Wh/kg level of ternary lithium batteries in the 811 system.
It is worth mentioning that the Euler Cherry Cat equipped with the Honeycomb Energy cobalt-free lithium-ion battery has been unveiled at the Chengdu Auto Show last year, using an 82.5kWh cobalt-free battery pack, NEDC has a range of 600km, which is also the world's first new energy vehicle equipped with a cobalt-free battery, which is expected to be listed within this year.
It should be noted that Yusuke Nanmi, president of Panasonic, recently said that Panasonic will strive to achieve mass production of cobalt-free batteries within three years. This is to think that there is a certain market demand for cobalt-free batteries, but it will take time to test whether they will be loaded in large quantities.
Solid-state batteries are batteries with solids as electrolytes and conductive media, and such batteries are hugely different from the liquid electrolyte batteries currently used in terms of raw materials and production paths. Solid-state batteries can be divided into semi-solid, quasi-solid and all-solid-state batteries according to the degree of curing.
Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that 2025 is a critical period for the transition from liquid batteries to solid-state batteries, and the goal of continental power battery industrialization is that by 2025, the energy density of liquid system batteries will reach 350Wh/kg; in 2030, the energy density of solid-liquid hybrid system batteries in the transition from liquid batteries to solid-state batteries will be 400Wh/kg; in 2035, the energy density of quasi-/all-solid system batteries will reach 500Wh/kg. kg。 In 2030, it is expected that the proportion of domestic all-solid-state batteries will not exceed 1%.
From the current point of view, solid-state batteries are only developed in the semi-solid-state battery stage, and the earliest installed car is the WEILAI ET7. According to the recently exposed news, WEILAI ET7 uses a mixed solid-liquid electrolyte battery with a single charge endurance of 1000km provided by Weilan New Energy. Mass production of the battery is expected to begin at the end of this year or the first half of next year.
In terms of energy density, solid-state batteries can reduce their volume by 40% and by 25% by weight through chemical composition. Taking the patented solid-state battery technology of the Ningde era as an example, it is eventually expected to break through the energy density of 500Wh/kg.
In terms of safety, solid-state batteries have the advantages of non-flammability, non-volatile, non-corrosive and non-leakage compared to current liquid electrolyte batteries, and even in high-temperature environments, there will be no side reactions. In addition, solid-state batteries have stronger temperature adaptability in structure and have a longer service life than liquid batteries.
Theoretically, solid-state batteries can solve the headache problem of most current liquid electrolyte batteries, and there are still certain difficulties in mass production and commercialization.
On March 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035)", which proposes to support the development of hydrogen fuel cell technology, and plans to have about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025. In addition, the plan also clarifies for the first time that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system, and renewable energy hydrogen production is the main development direction.
Japanese and Korean car companies have been laying out in the field of hydrogen fuel cells for a long time, and their products are relatively more mature. In China, SAIC Motor invested earlier in the field of FCEV, investing in hydrogen jet technology specializing in the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell systems, and SAIC Maxus also released fuel cell MPV - EUNIQ 7.
Written in the end: From the current stage, the best way to solve the problem of rising prices of new energy vehicles is to ensure supply and stabilize prices, strengthen the construction of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other resource security systems, accelerate the construction of a diversified supply system of development and procurement, domestic and international mutual assistance, and maintain market supply and demand. In the long run, it is necessary to continuously break through battery technology and find raw materials that are more in line with market demand.