Riding on the momentum or rushing to the top? Don't rush to judge new energy vehicles

By the end of 2021, the cumulative consumption of new energy vehicles will be about 1.6 trillion yuan, driving the output value of the upstream and downstream industrial chains to about 4.8 trillion yuan, and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by more than 100 million tons. Compared with the early stage of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of private consumption of new energy vehicles has increased from 47% to 78%, and the proportion of private consumption in non-restricted cities has increased from 40% to 70%. The picture shows the electric vehicles exhibited and sold in a shopping mall in Zhengzhou. Courtesy of Visual China

On the one hand, the price of the main raw materials of the power battery has risen across the board, and the new energy vehicles have "risen"; on the other hand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded 1 million, and the market share has reached 19.3%... In the first quarter of this year, China's new energy vehicles not only continued the momentum of rapid growth, but also appeared some development characteristics and trends that were completely different from the past, which aroused common concern inside and outside the industry.

Thanks to the technological progress and consumption upgrade of new energy vehicles, the rise of green travel modes and other reasons, the degree of marketization of new energy vehicles has increased year by year, and the characteristics of market and policy two-wheel drive have become more and more obvious. By the end of 2021, the cumulative consumption of new energy vehicles will be about 1.6 trillion yuan, driving the output value of the upstream and downstream industrial chains to about 4.8 trillion yuan, and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by more than 100 million tons.

However, the development of new energy vehicles is also facing some new problems, and even triggered a "controversy" between different views inside and outside the industry. For example, some models still have some deficiencies in terms of quality safety and low temperature adaptability, and the integration and development of electrification, intelligence and networking need to be continuously deepened. Especially since the beginning of this year, due to the superposition of factors such as subsidy decline and rising raw material prices, many companies have "queued" up the sales price of new energy vehicles, and at the same time, the delay in the delivery of new cars has occurred from time to time.

There is also a view that under the background that the new energy vehicle industry is optimistic about the capital market, many companies are rushing to the scene, which not only triggers disorderly competition in the market, but also may lead to overcapacity in the new energy automobile industry.

The electric car track is hot, and it is not advisable to kill and kill with sticks

"There will be a catastrophic overcapacity of new energy vehicles." Not long ago, at the performance conference, Tan Xuguang, chairman and CEO of Weichai Group, said bluntly, "In recent years, the new energy industry has been relatively lively, and enterprises have rushed to the top to lead to disorderly competition. There are many companies that dop private activities and inflate wealth through the capital market, resulting in the capital market's disorderly capital expansion of new energy. ”

This is not the first time that the topic of "overcapacity of new energy vehicles" has appeared in people's field of vision.

At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that problems such as blind investment and disorderly development of new energy vehicles exist to varying degrees, so it is necessary to rely on existing production capacity to develop new energy vehicles. Vehicle enterprises should highlight the key layout, and no longer add new production capacity layout before the existing base reaches a reasonable scale.

Lin Nianxiu proposed to guide the industry to gather in areas and entities with a good development foundation and sufficient utilization of production capacity, focusing on the Yangtze River Delta, pearl river delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and other regions to create an internationally competitive industrial cluster. According to reports, the next step will be to strengthen the cleaning up and rectification of illegal projects of new energy vehicles, investigate and deal with violations such as unapproved construction, batch zero construction, and construction while approving in accordance with laws and regulations, and at the same time standardize the merger and reorganization of vehicle enterprises, and vigorously promote the withdrawal of backward enterprises and ineffective production capacity.

According to the forecast of CCID Research Institute, by 2025, the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in mainland China is expected to reach 36.61 million units, while the market sales scale is about 5.3 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is less than 15%.

"To judge whether the new energy vehicle has excess capacity, we must not only look at the real demand of the market, but also look at whether the technology and resources behind the product are sufficient to support." Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, said that since last year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to rise, but a large part of it is because enterprises have overdrawn the sales of new energy vehicles in advance due to the tightening of industrial policies such as environmental protection.

Cao Guangping believes that the growth of production and sales should be based on technological progress. "For example, if the level of battery technology is increased by 100%, it is reasonable to double the sales of new energy vehicles." Soaring sales must be supported by good technology and good products, otherwise it may be a bubble-like prosperity. ”

"It is too early to conclude that 'new energy vehicles have a catastrophic overcapacity'." Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of the International United Business School of Zhejiang University, stressed that as an industry with certain technical barriers and access thresholds, new energy vehicles generally do not have overcapacity rapidly, not to mention that due to international emergencies, the prices of bulk commodities and chemical raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt have recently fluctuated sharply, which will restrict the production capacity of new energy vehicles.

In Pan and Lin's view, new energy vehicles have some unique advantages for consumers, such as vehicle use costs and vehicle intelligence levels, so it is an inevitable trend to replace traditional fuel vehicles. "Take the cost of use, a pure electric car runs four or five hundred kilometers, the cost of use is less than 100 yuan, and its cost in purchase tax and vehicle maintenance is also lower." Considering the high oil prices now, electric vehicles are obviously more economical and affordable. ”

A set of comparative data released by the National Development and Reform Commission is enough to verify this view. Compared with the early stage of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of private consumption of new energy vehicles has increased from 47% to 78%, and the proportion of private consumption in non-restricted cities has increased from 40% to 70%. "There is still a long way to go before new energy vehicles fully replace fuel vehicles, and the market is not yet saturated." Overall, it is too early to judge the overcapacity of new energy vehicles. Pan and Lin reminded.

Similar to traditional fuel vehicles, smart phones and other markets, the "Matthew effect" of the new energy automobile industry is becoming more and more obvious, and the phenomenon of "the strong are strong and the capacity is expanding; the weak are struggling and it is difficult to sustain" abound.

During the two sessions of the National People's Congress this year, Wang Fengying, deputy to the National People's Congress and president of Great Wall Motor, proposed in the "Proposal on Promoting the Utilization Rate of China's Automobile Industry" that first of all, it is necessary to give full play to the advantages of regional agglomeration to make full use of existing production capacity to enlarge and strengthen the national automobile industry; second, it is necessary to make overall plans for the development of idle production capacity, encourage mergers and acquisitions, and accelerate the construction of smart factories; again, we must strengthen supervision, establish an exit mechanism, and avoid waste of resources; finally, we must promote domestic and international double circulation and encourage Chinese car companies to "go out" Explore overseas markets.

"Market competition is the survival of the fittest, and the production capacity of enterprises that are eliminated or on the verge of elimination is vacant and cannot operate, which is also an inevitable phenomenon in the process of market development." Yang Xiaolin, a senior media person and automotive industry analyst, told reporters that it is precisely because of the boom in the production and sales of new energy vehicles in recent years, both in the policy field and the capital market have been tilted, and enterprises are optimistic about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and they all believe that they will be the last winner on this track.

Yang Xiaolin believes that from the blossoming of a hundred flowers in the initial stage of new energy vehicles to the defeat of some enterprises after entering the knockout stage, the market concentration has gradually increased, which is a normal phenomenon of industrial development and market competition.

In fact, it is in the fierce competition on the new energy vehicle track that many excellent Chinese brands have taken advantage of the momentum and made milestone new breakthroughs.

Don't let the price of raw materials rise in the way of battery technology innovation

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first quarter of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued the rapid growth momentum, both exceeding one million vehicles, and the market share reached 19.3%, and the strategic leading role of new energy vehicles was further highlighted. At the same time, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has increased significantly. Some forecasts say that in 2030, new energy vehicles are expected to account for 70% of the Chinese market, while the market share of Chinese car brands is expected to reach 60%.

"The development of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations last year, and the speed of industry change in the future may be faster than imagined." A few days ago, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., publicly stated that with the rapid iterative progress of technology and products, new energy vehicles have comprehensively surpassed traditional fuel vehicles in terms of performance, shape, noise, acceleration, smoothness, intelligence, and use costs, and the price has begun to have a certain competitiveness, and the endogenous driving force of the industry has continued to increase.

In 2021, by virtue of its blade battery, DM-i super hybrid, e-platform 3.0 and other technical achievements, BYD insisted on the "two legs" of pure electric and plug-in hybrid walking, making the annual sales of new energy vehicles exceed 600,000 units, an increase of 220% year-on-year, ranking first for 9 consecutive years. At the beginning of April this year, BYD became the first car company in the world to officially stop production of fuel vehicles.

"New things are changing faster and more efficiently in the Chinese market than abroad. This year is a key year for new energy vehicles to take advantage of the momentum and accelerate change. The more rapid the industry grows, the more it is necessary to think of danger in times of peace, seek progress in stability, take into account various complex factors, and adhere to the use of technological innovation to solve development problems. Wang Chuanfu said frankly that behind the explosive growth of the market, the new energy automobile industry is facing severe challenges such as the intensification of the epidemic, the soaring price of raw materials, and the instability of the supply chain.

"The soaring price of raw materials for power batteries is a challenge that the industry needs to overcome. We recommend comprehensively sorting out the layout and production capacity of lithium carbonate resources, increasing domestic mining and foreign imports, maintaining market supply and demand, stabilizing price expectations, and promoting the healthy and safe development of the industry. Wang Chuanfu said that China cannot change from the era of fuel vehicles to the neck of oil trucks to the neck of metal cobalt and metal nickel in the era of electric vehicles.

At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022), Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the main reason for the increase in the price of raw materials for power batteries this year is the growth of vehicle demand and the expected rise in batteries, so enterprises expand production capacity and increase reserves. In addition, the delay in supply, the impact of the epidemic on the production of lithium resources, and the lack of transportation capacity have also magnified the contradiction between supply and demand.

He analyzed that the reasons for the current round of price increases are basically the same as the rise in lithium resources in 2016-2018. "At that time, the mainland new energy vehicles from the incubation period to the growth period also led to the lithium price increase process, and now from the growth period to the rapid growth period, it is such a process." Only this time it is stronger than the last time, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, so the price increase of raw materials is even greater. ”

Ouyang Minggao judged that the demand amplification brought about by panic inventory reserves is temporary, and with the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, it will gradually return to the basic demand side. "It is expected that a complete balance of supply and demand may be restored in two or three years." At the same time, he suggested that in order to ensure the security of supply, strong measures should be taken to combat hoarding and curb the sharp short-term fluctuations in nickel prices, so as not to affect the sales of new energy vehicles this year.

Based on industrial investment information forecasts, mainland battery production capacity may reach 1.5 billion kWh (1500GWh) in 2023, 3 billion kWh in 2025, battery shipments are expected to reach 1200GWh in 2025, of which about 70% or 80% will be used in the domestic market, and the rest will be exported to overseas markets.

Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that the current problem of sharp price increases in power battery raw materials needs to be paid great attention to and carefully studied and solved. He said that it is necessary to moderately accelerate the progress of domestic resource development, resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as speculation and speculation, guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen cooperation and common development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.

As an important pillar of the national economy, the steady growth of the automobile industry last year provided strong support for boosting the mainland's industrial economy. In particular, new breakthroughs have been made in the development of new energy vehicles in the mainland, which has become a new highlight of the high-quality development of the automobile industry.

Statistics show that as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the cumulative promotion of new energy vehicles in the mainland is expected to exceed 10 million. In addition, new progress has been made in key technologies for new energy vehicles, and Chinese enterprises will obtain more than 30,000 patents related to new energy vehicles in 2021, accounting for 70% of the world's total. Of course, these achievements are not a one-day achievement, nor does it mean that the relevant companies can lie on the merit book, but the "long-term doctrine" that requires the goal to be firm.

Since 2012, when it took the lead in pressing the start button for the industrialization of new energy vehicles, China has become a recognized new energy vehicle power in the world, and it is also one of the most active countries in technological innovation. Today, the shortage of automotive chips and the price increase of raw materials have risen in waves, but China's window towards an automobile power with the help of the new energy vehicle track still exists for a long time, and the market and consumers are quietly waiting for the next winner.

China Youth Daily, China Youth Network reporter Xu Yajie Source: China Youth Daily

Source: China Youth Daily Travel Weekly