In 2021, news of automakers ensuring battery supply abounds, and automakers are starting to bypass battery suppliers and choose to develop their own batteries and produce their own batteries. All automakers have realized that whoever has a battery can control the future of new energy vehicles. In the process, Chinese companies have become quite scary, and in 2021, 12 of the top 20 electric vehicle companies will be from China.
[1] The huge battery manufacturing plan of automobile manufacturers may not be realized!
Battery issues must be addressed to ensure future sales. Among the major manufacturers, Hyundai Motor Group predicts that Hyundai Motor will need 170GWh in 2030, Kia will need 289GWh, and 119GWh. Volkswagen plans to build six gigafactories with a capacity of 240 GWh by 2030. General Motors aims to reach 143GWh by 2023 and 286GWh by 2025, and Toyota aims to reach 200GWh per year by 2030.
For reference, the 200GWh battery production scale is enough to allow about 3 million electric vehicles to travel 400 kilometers on a single charge. Toyota believes that producing 3.5 million electric vehicles a year requires 280GWh of batteries and must steadily build and maintain 100 production lines.
The four companies have a target battery capacity of 1006 GWh for 2030. If global manufacturers are put together, it means that the whole world should become a battery factory.
[2] Batteries and semiconductor chips are too affected by other factors
It began with Sino-US trade frictions and the impact of the epidemic, leading to semiconductor supply chain problems, and battery raw material problems due to the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. As a result, there is a risk that automakers, battery manufacturers, and even if they are producing, they will not be able to purchase batteries.
South Korea has more than 1,800 raw materials that are absolutely dependent on China. Among them, 60% of the semiconductor raw material silicon is produced in China, and Chinese companies play a key role in the production of battery raw material nickel. In the case of lithium-ion batteries, attempts are being made to replace the negative electrode material from graphite to silicon and the positive electrode material from an expensive cobalt group to a high nickel group (lithium iron phosphate and lithium hydroxide).
In addition to nickel, Tesla has raised the price of new cars by 5% due to soaring prices of iron, aluminum and palladium. Russia accounts for about 40% of the world's palladium. If Russia's palladium supply stops, it will inevitably affect the production of many cars, including hybrids.
Even if automakers and battery manufacturers have advanced technology, if the problem of primary raw materials is not solved, the factory will inevitably stop operating.
If you look at the raw material problems caused by the recent Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, anyone can see that the transition to the era of electric vehicles is not easy. In particular, the problem of raw materials has become a more important issue than advanced technologies such as IT, making the situation in the future more difficult.
[3] The timing of commercialization of all-solid-state batteries for automobiles is uncertain
Volkswagen has said automakers that mass-produce cars using all-solid-state batteries will be in the lead. Volkswagen set the time period for 2025-2026.
As for timing, Nissan has set a target for trial production in 2024 and completion by 2028, but recently said it may be unlikely. Of course, it is difficult for car manufacturers to stand alone, and they need to cooperate with battery manufacturers the most.
Market research firm SNE Research expects the all-solid-state battery market size to expand from 2GWh in 2021 to 135GWh in 2030. Starting in 2035, all-solid-state batteries are expected to become mainstream.
Of course, there is a general consensus that such target figures are meaningless at the moment. But at the current level of technology, no company can specify when the all-solid-state batteries for use in cars will be commercialized.
[4] Technical characteristics of all-solid-state batteries
Although all-solid-state batteries are already in practical applications in small and medium-sized household appliances, they are another matter for cars. All-solid-state batteries are known to have higher energy density and higher safety than lithium-ion batteries currently in use.
However, existing all-solid-state batteries that use lithium metal as a negative electrode to increase energy density are sensitive to temperature, can only be charged above 60 degrees Celsius, and have been pointed out to have slow speed limitations. In addition, the performance of the electrolyte material is not strong enough, so the more it is used, the greater the internal resistance and the shorter the life.
The basic technology of all-solid-state batteries has manufacturing technology problems such as mass production in practical applications. One of them is the question of how much solid electrolyte should be used in the form of a battery. For large capacity and high output such as electric vehicles, it is necessary to make a module that integrates multiple cells.
Charge-discharge cycle life is also an important factor. There are not many development cases that can meet the requirements of maintaining a capacity of more than 80% after charging 2000 to 3000 times of pure electric vehicles.
[5] Solid-state batteries in the commercialization efforts
In the research and development of all-solid-state batteries, Toyota has more than 1,000 patents. China's NIO announced that it will achieve commercialization in 2022, and NIO has attracted people's attention, but it is still far from commercialization.
In January 2021, China NIO announced an investment of 800 million yuan to establish a joint venture with CATL to develop an all-solid-state battery that can travel 1,000 kilometers on a single charge. NIO announced that it will launch an all-solid-state battery in the fourth quarter of 2022, achieving an ultra-high energy density of 360Wh/kg. It will be available in 150 kWh packages and can be replaced and upgraded for existing models.
Through this, NIO's model ES8 can travel 850 km and the new ET7 can travel 1000 km (based on NEDC). However, it is said that 70 kWh and 100 kWh of battery packs will be available until the first quarter of 2022.
During the development of all-solid-state batteries, Toyota said it was able to confirm that all-solid-state batteries made from a new material called LGPS have three times the current of lithium-ion batteries. It was also confirmed that stable charging and discharging even above -30 degrees Celsius and 100 degrees Celsius were confirmed. The advantage of solid electrolytes is that they can work at low temperatures below freezing points, and even at the boiling point of water.
[6] Solid-state batteries are not the only solution
Nissan is also promoting the use of lithium, germanium, phosphorus, and sulfur (lithium, germanium, phosphorus, and sulfur) as solid electrolytes for all-solid-state batteries, with the goal of commercialization by 2028. It plans to install an all-solid-state battery pilot plant at its Yokohama plant by 2024.
In addition to all-solid-state batteries, next-generation battery technologies such as lithium-sulfur batteries, lithium metal batteries, and metal-air batteries, which are completely different from lithium-ion batteries in terms of materials and methods, are being developed. Among them, for lithium metal, the US SES announced commercialization in 2021 and 2025. Lithium metal batteries can be said to be intermediates between lithium-ion and all-solid-state batteries.
At this point, it can be confirmed that the timeline of the so-called next-generation battery technology cannot be calculated. It is impossible to assert which company leads.
To this end, the low-cost lithium iron phosphate battery that has been seized by Chinese companies such as NINGDE Times and BYD has attracted much attention. Tesla's Elon Musk said it's lithium iron phosphate, not all-solid, and many companies are joining in. CATL also introduced sodium-ion batteries in July 2021. The energy density of the first sodium-ion battery is said to be 160Wh/kg, which is currently the highest in the world. It can be charged to 80% for 15 minutes at room temperature, and the discharge retention rate in temperatures below -20 °C is more than 90%.
Therefore, who can innovate on the battery and commercialize to reduce costs, then who will be credited no less than winning the Nobel Prize in Chemistry.