The price increase tide of new energy vehicles still does not have any signal of "ebb tide". Car companies that continue to join the price increase camp have made the price increase tide "higher than a wave".
Recently, GAC Aean, Chery New Energy and other car companies opened the second round of price increases, and Weilai, which had previously insisted on not increasing prices, could not hold back, and the official announcement of the starting price of its main models was raised by 10,000 yuan.
The core reason for the collective price increase of new energy vehicle companies is the soaring price of raw materials for upstream power batteries, which is a common problem faced by the global automobile industry.
Recently, the Securities Times reporter exclusively interviewed Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM"), analyzed in detail the reasons for the soaring prices of raw materials, and conducted an in-depth analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the current new energy automobile industry.
Ye Shengji said that in recent years, the scale of the new energy vehicle market has expanded rapidly, and the continuously high sales volume has exceeded industrial expectations, resulting in a mismatch in production capacity between new energy vehicles and power batteries, and there is also a certain time difference between the expansion cycle of power batteries and the expansion cycle of various key materials, which in turn has led to an unbalanced and uncoordinated phenomenon in many links of the entire new energy vehicle industry chain.
In his view, the irrational price increase of power battery raw materials will fall back sooner or later, but from the current observation, it will take at least half a year or longer for the price fluctuations of key materials for this wave of new energy vehicles to gradually stabilize.
1
Pressure from the supply chain
On April 11, caucus announced the latest data on domestic automobile production and sales. According to the data, in the first quarter of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.293 million units and 1.257 million units, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 19.3%.
While the sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, the collective price increase of the main products has added a "cloud of doubt" to the further heating up of the industry. Recently, multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic, chip shortage, rising raw material prices, and logistics obstruction have added to the pressure on the production and operation of many car companies.
In the recent monthly information communication meeting, the China Automobile Association revealed that looking forward to the situation throughout the year, affected by the macro-economy, the development of the automotive industry is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, and the task of stabilizing growth is very arduous.
Ye Shengji told reporters that at present, the pressure of car companies at the supply chain level is relatively large, and the rise in raw material prices has adversely affected the development of the new energy automobile industry, on the one hand, to a certain extent, it will curb market demand; on the other hand, it may seriously affect the sustainable development of the industry.
Ye Shengji analyzed that the reasons for the rise in the price of key materials for continental power batteries are threefold. First, there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand in the market; the second is that the mainland's battery raw materials are overly dependent on imports and have no control over pricing; the third is the price increase and speculation in the intermediate links.
"In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China will grow rapidly, reaching 3.5 million units, and the sales growth rate will far exceed industry expectations." At the same time, the size of the new energy vehicle market in various countries in the world is also rising, further exacerbating the demand for raw materials, which in turn has brought about irrational price increases upstream. Ye Shengji said that the current uncoordinated phenomenon in the new energy vehicle industry chain can be said to be inevitable in the process of rapid industrial development. It is recommended that the competent departments of the industry plan scientifically, actively stabilize all aspects of the industrial chain, make their development beat as consistent as possible, and promote the high-quality development of the industry.
In his view, the current irrational price increase of power battery raw materials will be alleviated sooner or later, and the pressure from the supply chain level that car companies bear in the short term, driven by the market, cannot hinder and seriously affect the electrification process of enterprises.
Ye Shengji believes that "car companies should accept the 'double integral' assessment and seize the time to carry out technological upgrading and product iteration." The current pressure will not seriously affect the pace of electrification and transformation of car companies, but the pressure on car companies is indeed too great, and it is necessary to think of ways to reduce pressure.
02
The parts remanufacturing industry needs attention
Relevant data show that as of the beginning of 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide has soared by about 8 times; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, spodumene, lithium iron phosphate materials, etc. has also increased amazingly.
It is worth noting that with the rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries, the power battery recycling industry has also heated up. The sharp rise in the prices of cobalt, lithium, nickel and other metals has made the battery recycling industry more economically efficient, and it is predicted that the global battery recycling market space will exceed 150 billion yuan in 2027.
Ye Shengji told reporters that the recycling of power batteries should be basically synchronized with the production and sales of new energy vehicles, and should not lag too far. The recycling and reuse of power batteries is a system project, which requires multi-party coordination efforts to achieve jointly.
"The recycling, dismantling and purification of raw materials for power batteries is a very professional thing, and it requires a lot of technical reserves and production reserves." Ye Shengji said that in the context of the sharp rise in raw material prices, the industry needs to pay more attention to the reuse of power batteries, on the one hand, to avoid the waste of resources, on the other hand, to alleviate the shortage of raw materials.
In this regard, he also put forward specific suggestions, hoping that the competent government departments will set up a special fund to support the recycling and reprocessing of power batteries, which will have a substantial effect on making up for the gap in key materials of lithium batteries.
In his view, whether it is a car company, or a power battery company, or a third-party capital and company, it is necessary to participate in the recycling and remanufacturing of power batteries. At the same time, Ye Shengji also suggested that the power battery is only a part of the core components of the vehicle, and it is necessary for car companies to pay attention to the overall remanufacturing and recycling of auto parts.
Relevant analysis shows that parts and components remanufactured recyclable scrap products contain about 70% of the added value, compared with the original manufacturing, can save materials, energy consumption of more than 70%, reduce manufacturing costs by 30% to 50%; compared with the manufacture of new products, the adverse impact on the environment is significantly reduced.
Ye Shengji believes that vigorously developing the parts remanufacturing industry is of great significance to the automotive industry to reduce emissions and carbon, energy conservation and cost reduction, as well as to promote the implementation of the "double carbon" strategic goal. It is recommended that the relevant departments establish and improve the relevant policies and regulations system, solve the problem of import channels and raw material shortages of old parts, establish an insurance rate adjustment mechanism, and encourage and guide consumers to use remanufactured products in the process of automobile maintenance.
At the same time, the clustered parts remanufacturing industry is also particularly worthy of encouragement and promotion. Ye Shengji believes that taking the industrial park in Shanghai Lingang as an example, the base has successfully attracted a number of auto parts remanufacturing enterprises to settle in, and has initially formed the advantages of industrial agglomeration and development, and these successful cases are worthy of reference in the industry.