We have been stressing earlier that we should pay attention to the three main factors that suppress the market.
In terms of Fed interest rate hikes, boots have landed. In the early hours of the morning, the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. At the same time, the Fed's balance sheet reduction plan has also been relaxed, starting in June, from $9 trillion per month to reduce the balance sheet by $47.5 billion, and three months later, it will reduce $95 billion per month.
In addition, fed Powell directly ruled out the option of a subsequent 75 basis point rate hike, and believes that the US economy can make a smooth soft landing.
Under this statement that exceeded expectations, the US stock market also rose sharply. I have to say that the Fed also played a good hand, originally the interest rate hike was bearish, and the result was that the interest rate hike also landed, and the stock market also rose.
In terms of the epidemic, Shanghai's data is very good, which makes people see hope.
Under the landing of the above two factors, the A-share market has maintained a certain degree of heat. The short-term market is also developing in a good direction, and continuous shock repair will be a tone behind.
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Tesla said on May 1 that it plans to build a new factory near the current Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory to produce the Model 3 and Model Y, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 450,000 vehicles and become Tesla's "largest car export center" in the world.
This is also the second factory of Tesla, which has been rumored to be boiling, and it has officially confirmed that it has landed and is still in Shanghai. presently
The production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai factory is about 550,000 vehicles, and with the new capacity of 450,000 vehicles added by the second factory, the total production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai factory can reach 1 million vehicles in 2023, because the factory production cycle is about one year.
In addition, data on May 5 showed that the upstream price of some lithium battery materials began to decline, lithium hexafluorophosphate fell by 20,000 yuan / ton; lithium metal fell by 10,000 yuan / ton; lithium cobalt oxide fell by 10,000 yuan / ton, cobalt carbonate fell by 7,500 yuan / ton; cobalt oxide, tricobalt tetroxide fell by 5,000 yuan / ton.
Therefore, the upstream cost pressure began to ease, the downstream demand broke out, and the midstream expansion was accelerating. Among them, the most beneficial are midstream auto parts manufacturers.
Because from the perspective of the industrial chain, upstream raw material enterprises are facing the profit suppression of price decline; the cost pressure of midstream battery companies has not been alleviated, such as the Ningde era; downstream vehicle manufacturing is facing the cost transmission pressure of battery price increases, which can be seen from the recent price increase of the whole vehicle.
The midstream auto parts industry is facing the double advantages of downstream demand expansion and upstream material cost reduction.
At the same time, in the long run, local auto suppliers have the following advantages compared with foreign suppliers
First, lower labor costs and higher labor efficiency.
Second, the self-research and self-production rate is high, the company's own industrial chain is highly perfect, and the low purchase rate makes the cost control ability increase significantly.
Third, the ability to respond quickly is strong.
Fourth, backed by the world's largest local car parent market, the scale effect is more significant.
Among them, the benefits of suppliers who can be deeply involved in the trend of the new three modernizations of automobiles and automobiles will be more obvious.
One is under the trend of automobile electrification, which is a major trend in the industry and a goal promoted by global policies. Whether from a global or domestic point of view, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase rapidly.
One is the application of automotive intelligence, automatic driving technology, lidar, navigation systems, etc. as important hardware equipment, driving the release of demand for related industrial chains such as lidar optical components. Related industrial chains such as smart cockpits and upstream chips have ushered in rapid growth, especially in automotive semiconductors and IGBTs.
Another is the networking of automobiles, the continuous penetration of the Internet of Vehicles has led to the release of demand for on-board communication modules, OBU/RSU, etc., and UWB technology has gradually been applied in car keys and live radar.
Here is a subdivision direction under the trend of automobile electrification, that is, automobile lightweight, which is also the future development trend of the industry.
The lightweight of the car is to reduce the curb weight of the car as much as possible under the premise of ensuring the strength and safety performance of the car, thereby improving the power of the car, reducing fuel consumption, and reducing exhaust pollution.
In the case of a 10% and 15% reduction in vehicle weight, gasoline passenger cars reduce fuel consumption by 3.30% and 5.00%, respectively, and diesel vehicles reduce fuel consumption by 3.60% and 5.40%, respectively.
For new energy vehicles, the impact of car weight reduction on power is more obvious. To know that the quality of the power battery in electric vehicles accounts for a large part, it is particularly important to reduce the weight of other vehicles. In the case of a 10% and 15% reduction in vehicle weight, pure electric passenger cars reduce power consumption by 6.30% and 9.50%, respectively.
Among them, from the perspective of automotive components, there are the following three main lightweight places.
Three-electric system housing: The amount of aluminum alloy brought by the three-electric system housing is increased.
Lightweight body: Some structural parts (anti-collision beams, sill beams, etc.), four doors and two covers, etc. are made of aluminum alloy.
Chassis lightweight: mainly subframe, control arm, etc.
Among them, the typical representative enterprise is Tuopu Group. The company's lightweight business has cooperated with Tesla since 2016 and began to gradually deepen the development of supporting components, and with the increase in Tesla's sales, the lightweight business has become an important incremental business of the company. At the same time, with the help of platform advantages, the company has developed intelligent brake IBS system, thermal management system business, air suspension business, etc., and has the advantages of large platform enterprises.
In fact, around Tesla and even new car-making forces, there are many auto parts industry chains, and many companies have the advantage of subdivision technology and market share with early accumulation.
In terms of investment, you can do what you can understand.
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Source: Flying Whale Research