Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
On April 19, ningde times, the leader of the ChiNext board, fell more than 7% intraday, closing at 407 yuan. Since december 3 last year, the closing price of catheter times reached a record high of 687 yuan, and has fallen by more than 40% all the way, and the market value has fallen below one trillion yuan.
Under the background of rising sales of new energy vehicles and increasing demand for power batteries, why does the stock price of ningde times, which was once favored by northbound funds, continue to fall? An important reason is that the Fed's interest rate hike has caused global capital to flow back to the United States.
Not only that, but multi-party sources show that the Fed's large-scale "tightening" in May is a high-probability event, but analysts have different attitudes.
Some people believe: "For the global capital market, this is a major bearish that will not go away." Some people also believe: "Even if this harvest is achieved globally, the effect is not as good as expected." How much impact will the Fed's "tightening" have?
Capital outflows
Last month, A-shares underwent a sharp correction, and an important reason was the outflow of funds.
In early April, the Institute of International Finance ("IIF") released a report showing that "in March, the global emerging market portfolio recorded a net outflow of US$9.8 billion, including a net outflow of US$6.7 billion from the equity markets of developing countries and a net outflow of US$3.1 billion from the bond markets of emerging countries." By comparison, emerging market portfolios recorded net inflows of $13.3 billion in February. ”
"China is the single emerging market with the largest outflows, with a total of US$11.2 billion and US$6.3 billion net outflows from Chinese bonds and Chinese equity assets, respectively, the first net outflow of capital outflows from China's stock market since September 2020," the report reflects. More alarmingly, the report shows that "emerging market bond markets other than China received a net inflow of $8.2 billion in the same period; while emerging market stocks outside China recorded a small net outflow of $400 million." ”
Some experts believe that "the Russian-Ukrainian war brings geopolitical risks, so that some investors are worried that the war risk will spill over to China, and the relevant departments have stated that there is no upper limit to Sino-Russian cooperation, which has caused some foreign investors to worry." ”
Hike and shrink the table
Recently, another important reason for the decline of the Asia-Pacific stock market across the board is that the Federal Reserve may sacrifice a double-kill combination of "interest rate hikes + balance sheet reduction".
On April 5, Fed Governor Brainard said: "Reducing the level of inflation is a 'vital' task at present. He also said the Fed could quickly shrink its balance sheet as soon as May and would continue to tighten policy 'methodically'. ”
On April 6, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting. "Officials at the meeting agreed that the Fed has made 'substantial progress' in its discussions on balance sheet reduction, with the Fed may be able to start a balance sheet reduction as early as after the May interest rate meeting; there is a 'general agreement' that the monthly balance sheet reduction can be capped at $95 billion," the minutes said. ”
"21st Century Business Herald" said: "The $95 billion balance sheet reduction ceiling is almost twice the monthly maximum size of the Fed's last tightening cycle (2017-2019)." Previously, the Fed's balance sheet reduction cap reached a maximum of only $50 billion, and it took a year to gradually increase the size to this level. ”
In this regard, some experts believe that "whether it is the minutes of the meeting or the statements of Fed officials, it shows that the next monetary policy will be very aggressive, and the Fed's policy trend can basically be seen as a step in place to tighten to the end." Some research institutions estimate that the Fed will recover about $1 trillion in liquidity every year. This tightening is a major negative for global capital markets. ”
In the view of the above-mentioned people, individual investors should be doubly careful this year.
Too pessimistic?
Compared with the above pessimistic tone, some professionals pointed out: "The recent return of the US dollar has not been as expected. ”
The person pointed out: "Although the United States has successfully arched the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, continuously raised interest rate hikes, and even the balance sheet reduction killer has been moved out, but in the past half a year, short-term US Treasuries are being sold wildly by the market, and the yield has shown explosive growth, directly from the lowest 0.2 in May last year, all the way soaring to 2.5054, and the US Treasury yield reflects that the tide of selling in the market is still far greater than the return of international safe-haven funds." ”
Some professionals wrote: "Under normal circumstances, the specific operation method of the United States is to attract stranded overseas funds to return to the United States based on the consideration of hedging risks through interest rate hikes and balance sheets, as well as to provoke trouble in specific areas overseas, and to take over the US stocks and US bonds at the same time; to pierce the asset bubbles that have been speculated by other countries due to the previous large-scale release of the US dollar, so that their asset prices have plummeted, and after achieving this purpose, they will restart the release of water, so that Wall Street and multinational companies can rush out with cheap dollars to bottom out, so that they can achieve the exploitation of other people's meat. The purpose of mending one's own sores. ”
But this time, the Wishful Thinking of the United States seems to have failed. The above-mentioned person believes that "the first thing is China's non-cooperation." This time, China not only did not cooperate with the United States to expand production capacity and buy US debt, but also actively deployed counter-harvesting, and second, Russia unexpectedly lifted the table. The Russo-Ukrainian War significantly raised commodity prices and suddenly stimulated rising inflation. In addition, the attitude of a group of little brothers who were attached to the United States in the past also wavered this time. ”
So the conclusion given by the above-mentioned person is: "The United States can still harvest the world." However, the effect may be greatly reduced. ”
In the view of the above-mentioned people, there is no need to panic excessively about the Fed's "double kill".
Overall, the Fed in May or will sacrifice the combination of "interest rate hikes + balance sheet reduction" is a high probability event, because the Fed's monetary policy orientation is the vane of global capital flows, so will the outflow of A-share funds affected by the Russo-Ukrainian war continue? What will the mainland do to deal with it? And what impact will it have on the development of the automobile industry and automobile consumption? Further observation is needed.
(Image source: Internet)