Source | Zeping Macro (ID: ihejiayan)
Author | Ren Zeping
introduction:
With the continuous advancement of information technology, the concept of "software-defined automobile" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. From the long-term development direction, the development of new energy vehicles will adhere to people's pursuit of "new four modernizations" vehicles that are both environmentally friendly and have the ultimate driving experience.
The "new four modernizations" are electrification, networking, intelligence and sharing. Among them, electrification refers to the field of new energy power system; intelligence refers to intelligent driving or driver assistance related systems; networking refers to the internet of everything and the layout of the Internet of Vehicles; sharing refers to new travel modes, including car sharing and mobile travel. There are many subdivisions of the "new four modernizations" of automobiles, giving unlimited possibilities for the development of new energy vehicles. At present, the overall process of the "new four modernizations" of continental automobiles is relatively fast, the electrification is becoming more and more mature, and the development of intelligence and networking will hold the baton in hand and open the second half of the new energy vehicle revolution.
First, electrification revolves around the "three electricity" technology, that is, batteries, motors, and electronic controls. 1) The power battery is the "heart" of new energy vehicles, and the mainland power battery is in a global leading position, and the advantages of technology and production capacity are prominent. In the future, a development pattern of "one pillar, two major application scenarios, and diversified technology development routes" will be formed. 2) The motor is equivalent to the engine of the fuel vehicle, basically realizing domestic substitution, and the core components of the electronic control part have made domestic breakthroughs, but there are still parts such as IGBT that are still highly dependent on foreign countries. In 2025, the scale of domestic drive motors is expected to expand by 5 times, breaking through 100 billion, and accelerating the pace of domestic substitution. 3) Charging piles were included in the new infrastructure and written into the "14th Five-Year Plan". Mainland charging construction leads the world, but the gap is still large, and construction will be accelerated in the future to ensure public demand.
Second, in terms of intelligent networking, Mainland China proposed the "three vertical and three horizontal" technical architecture in 2017. The three horizontals emphasize technology, including: vehicle/facility technology, information interaction technology, and basic support technology; the three vertical emphasize scenarios, including: highway automatic driving, urban automatic driving, and shared automatic driving. Important areas of application are intelligent driving and intelligent cockpits.
According to the function, the intelligent driving system can be divided into three core modules: perception system (environmental perception and positioning), decision system (intelligent planning and decision-making), and execution system (control execution). At present, the mainland computing platform suppliers are still in the early stage of commercialization, and the intelligent driving system and the intelligent human-computer interaction system can be self-developed, but the intelligent driving chip is basically monopolized by Mobileye and NVIDIA. The scale of the mainland intelligent driving market is huge, and it is expected that the scale of intelligent driving will exceed 220 billion yuan in 2025 and reach 500 billion yuan in 2030, which is 4 times that of the current one. For the client, the further development of intelligent driving will rely on the strong purchase demand of users and its safer driving method for users. For car companies, through the sale of intelligent driving related software, it will become a new profit growth point for car companies. According to McKinsey's estimates, the proportion of software-driven revenue of car companies will increase from 7% in 2010 to 30% in 2030.
The intelligent cockpit is a relatively mature plate in intelligence. At present, the penetration rate of the intelligent cockpit of the new car is high, and the on-board penetration rate of the central control large screen, the streaming media central rearview mirror, the head-up display system HUD, and the full LCD instrument in 2020 is 80%, 7%, 10%, and 30%, respectively, and it is expected that in 2025, its penetration rate can reach 100%, 30%, 30%, and 70% respectively. Intelligent cockpit or will be the first to usher in the development trend, it is expected that by 2025, the penetration rate of smart cockpit configuration in new cars in the Chinese market can exceed 75%, the market size of smart cockpit is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, and the market size is expected to reach 150 billion yuan in 2030.
Third, sharing is a new economic concept that emerged in 2016, and it is essentially a new business model. At present, the application of sharing is mainly reflected in the two modes of time-sharing leasing and online car-hailing. The concept of sharing is actually more like the product of the "Internet ++" era, and the implementation of sharing needs to be based on the construction of a large and reasonable data system, that is, to strengthen the ability to configure information through platform construction. The outbreak period of sharing may lag behind, but it is undeniable that it has an important position and broad prospects in the development of new energy vehicles.
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What is the "New Four Modernizations"?
The "new four modernizations" are electrification, networking, intelligence, and sharing.
Electrification refers to the field of new energy power systems, which is the best solution to achieve low-carbon travel at present, and is the basis for the current new generation of automobile transformation, and the mainland has a certain first-mover advantage;
Intelligent refers to intelligent driving or driver assistance related systems, the future will be on the basis of electrification, to achieve a real "human-vehicle" comprehensive interaction, to meet people's full assumptions for the ultimate driving experience, the current industry development focus is generally focused on intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit;
Networking refers to the internet of everything, the internet of vehicle layout, the car will be combined with the continuous development of information technology, will eventually help people to achieve the "people and vehicles" full integration, the real sense of the car from the original simple means of transportation into a fully intelligent mobile carrier;
Sharing refers to new modes of travel, including car sharing and mobility. There are many subdivisions of the "new four modernizations" of automobiles, giving unlimited possibilities for the development of new energy vehicles.
Electrification, intelligence, and networking are inherently complementary and complementary, and the development of intelligent networking will further promote the process of comprehensive electrification. Electric vehicles have a short response time (about 30 milliseconds for electric vehicles, about 500 milliseconds for fuel vehicles), and a large battery capacity (which can power the vehicle networking communication module for a long time when parking) is the best carrier for automobile intelligence and networking, and in turn, intelligence and networking can greatly improve the driving experience of electric vehicles and expand the differentiated competitive advantage of new energy vehicles.
In terms of policy, the mainland has paid more and more attention to the development of the "new four modernizations" of automobiles. On November 2, 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which specifically mentioned electrification, networking and intelligence in view of the future development trend of new energy vehicles, the overall idea deployment and the construction of talent teams, which pointed out the way for the development of new energy vehicles in the next fifteen years. For the lack of "sharing", Wang Bing, head of the expert group of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Project, said that sharing is still an important part of the development of new energy vehicles and one of the trends, but sharing focuses on business model operation, compared with the "Planning" is more focused on the industrial technology level.
The overall process of the "new four modernizations" of Continental Automobile is relatively fast, and the improvement of electrification and networking is particularly obvious. According to the new four passenger car index released by the association every month, as of November 2021, the new four index of passenger cars was 69.3, of which the intelligence index was 53.2, indicating that the proportion of models surveyed in the month that met the SAE standard L1 and above was 53.2%; the electrification index was 20.8, indicating that the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars such as pure electric and plug-in hybrids in that month was 20.8% (the data of the association was biased from the data of the China Automobile Association) The networking index was 41.3, indicating that the proportion of models with mobile communication modules and even higher level of networking functions reached 41.3% in that month. Looking back at December 2018, the new four index is only 50.3, of which the intelligence index is 42.5, the electrification index is 7.1, and the networking index is 19.5, and the process of the new four modernizations in the mainland has been significantly improved, especially electrification and networking.
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Electrification
Different from traditional automotive technology, there are three new areas of automotive electrification, namely batteries, motors, and electronic controls, commonly known as "three electricity" systems. The three-electric system is the core of the power system of pure electric vehicles, and its importance is like the engine of fuel vehicles, which is the foundation of electric vehicles. The "three electrics" system currently accounts for about 50-60% of the total vehicle cost. Specifically, the battery system mainly provides a source of power for the car, rather than simply providing the vehicle with lighting, air conditioning, etc. The power required; the motor system is a high-voltage motor that provides torque to the car, that is, to provide forward and backward forces for the car; the electronic control system can be understood as an on-board computer, which collects various driving information such as throttle, brake pedal, steering wheel steering and other driving information during driving and issues instructions for the next action of the car, just like the nerve center of the human body.
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Power battery
As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, the development of battery technology and the improvement of performance are the core driving forces that determine the long-term development of new energy vehicles. Power batteries account for more than 40% of the cost of new energy passenger vehicles. The power battery composition mainly includes cathode material, anode material, electrolyte and separator, of which the positive electrode material accounts for about 40% of the total cost of the battery, which determines the core performance of the battery such as capacity life. After years of accumulation, mainland battery companies have highlighted their technological and production capacity advantages, and the global share of domestic batteries has occupied an absolute advantage.
In the future, China's battery industry will form a development pattern of "one pillar, two application scenarios, and diversified technology development routes". First of all, in the next 5-10 years, we believe that the development of power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries will continue to be the first pillar of the new energy battery industry. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Alliance, it can be seen that the ratio of ternary materials to lithium iron phosphate installed capacity in 2018, 19 and 20 years is about 6:4, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate will rise in 2021, pulling the ratio to 1:1. In the future, the market route of new energy vehicle power batteries is relatively clear, and downstream car companies have basically determined the two routes of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Secondly, based on the cost advantages of existing power battery technology, we will accelerate the implementation of new energy passenger vehicle application scenarios, and enrich and expand new energy passenger and new energy commercial application scenarios with hydrogen fuel and other fuel cells as the entry point. Finally, many emerging battery technologies represented by solid state, sodium ion, high nickel diversification, aluminum air, etc., will supplement the diversified strategic pattern of enriching the development of the new energy battery market.
The system energy density of continental power batteries is expected to continue to rise in the future. According to the catalogue of new energy vehicle models exempted from vehicle purchase tax regularly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the average energy density of the battery systems of the pure electric passenger models selected in the catalogue continued to rise, from 140.7Wh/kg in 2018.12 (the 22nd batch) to 152.9Wh/kg in 2021.11 (the 49th batch), with an average energy density increase of 8.7%. On November 18, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document proposing higher requirements, and the single density of new power battery projects requires ≧180Wh/kg. At the same time, the mainland still pays attention to the research and development and manufacture of new batteries, such as BYD's blade battery, the sodium-ion battery in the Ningde era, and the manufacture of 4680 batteries in the active layout of Ewell Lithium.
The scale of the global power battery market is still expanding, and it is difficult to shake the dominant position of the mainland in the global market in the short term. From the perspective of global power battery demand, it is expected that by 2025, the installed capacity of global automotive power batteries may reach more than 1400GWh, and the installed capacity of China's automobile batteries alone will reach more than 600GWh; by 2030, the global installed capacity will reach more than 2900GWh. According to the "2021 Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Report" released by China Automobile Data, it is expected that the production capacity of automotive power batteries in mainland China is expected to reach 358GWh in 2022. Expansion is expected to be strong, by 2025, NINGDE times, BYD, Yiwei lithium energy, AVIC lithium battery, Guoxuan hi-tech production capacity will reach about 627GWh, 180GWh, 186GWh, 88GWh, 48GWh, the future incremental space of the market is significant. From the perspective of domestic installed capacity, the installed capacity of continental power batteries has increased by 160 times in 9 years. Specifically, the installed capacity of power batteries in mainland China was 0.8GWh in 2013, and 128.3GWh in January-November 2021, an increase of nearly 160 times. 2019, 2019 and 20 years experienced a period of stagnation, less than 10% for two consecutive years. This has a lot to do with the rush to install before the subsidy declines, and the impact of the epidemic on automobile production and sales. However, in 2021, with the surge in domestic new energy vehicle sales, the installed capacity of power batteries has also increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 153.1%. China, Japan and South Korea stand on three feet, and local power battery manufacturers are already in the world's first camp. According to SNE Research, the global power battery installed capacity in 2021.1-9 was 195.4Gwh, an increase of 226.2% year-on-year. Among them, the TOP10 manufacturers are CATL, LG New Energy, Panasonic, BYD, SKI, Samsung SDI, AVIC Lithium Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Envision AESC, PEVE, respectively, 32.1%, 23.7%, 13.0%, 9.0%, 5.3%, 3.2%, 2.8%, 2.3%, 1.1%, 1.0%; of which NINGDE Times accounted for 32.1%, and the installed capacity ranked first in the world for the fourth consecutive year. It is worth noting that its installed capacity is higher than that of the three major Korean companies combined (31.7%), occupying an absolute world dominance. At the same time, it can be seen that the market concentration of the power battery industry is relatively high, and the total market share of the top ten companies has reached 93.6%. The corresponding continental power battery installed capacity reached 92GWh, accounting for nearly half of the world.
The field of terminal battery recycling will give the power battery industry new room for development. The maximum service life of the power battery is generally 5-8 years, of which the battery attenuation is within 20% for the effective power battery, and the effective service life is about 4-6 years. Since 2016, the installed capacity of global power batteries has entered an accelerated stage, corresponding to the accelerated "retirement" of existing power batteries after 2021. According to Trend Force research, China's power battery scrap is expected to reach 91GWh in 2025. According to Markets and Markets forecast, it is expected that the global power battery recycling industry will reach $12.2 billion in 2025 and $18.1 billion by 2030, and the market space in the fields of cascade utilization and other fields such as power battery recycling and energy storage is vast.
Motor electronic control
Motor drive system is the main execution structure of new energy vehicles, equivalent to the engine of fuel vehicles, its performance determines the acceleration, climbing ability and maximum speed of the car, etc., the main parameters are peak efficiency (%), power density (kW/kg), peak power (kW), maximum speed (rpm) and so on. According to the working principle, there are mainly DC motors, induction motors, permanent magnet motors, switched reluctance motors, of which permanent magnet motors have become the mainstream of the market with their high power density and high peak efficiency.
In recent years, among the new energy vehicle motor suppliers in mainland China, independent brands have always occupied an absolute share. From the perspective of the proportion of autonomy, in 2018, according to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the proportion of independent supporting motors in the mainland reached more than 95%, and the fields of new energy buses, pure electric trucks, and pure electric logistics vehicles were all localized. From the perspective of installed capacity, according to the data of the Gaz Automobile Research Institute, the cumulative installed number of new energy passenger vehicle electric drive systems in mainland China from January to October 2021 reached 2.592 million sets, nearly double that of 2020. From the perspective of motor supporting manufacturers, the top 10 manufacturers of motor supporting numbers in 2021 are: Tesla, Fordy Power, Founder Motor, Azure Power, Ningbo Shuanglin, Nidec, Shanghai Electric Drive, Huichuan Technology, United Automotive Electronics, And Jingjin Electric, corresponding to the proportion of installed sets of 13.8%, 13.6%, 9.0%, 6.1%, 5.1%, 4.4%, 4.2%, 3.3%, 3.0%, 3.0%, a total of 65.5% The top 10 local manufacturers occupied 7 seats, accounting for 44.3% in total.
Motor controller as a new energy vehicle in the connection of battery and motor energy conversion unit, in the electric vehicle driving process, the motor controller will provide the power battery of direct current, inverse into the power of the motor required ac, drive the electric vehicle forward. It is mainly composed of hardware parts such as IGBT power semiconductor modules and their associated circuits, as well as software parts such as motor control algorithms and logic protection. Among them, IGBT accounts for more than 40% of the cost of the electronic control system, equivalent to about 5% of the total cost of the whole vehicle, if you add IGBT in the charging system, the cost proportion is higher. The cost of IGBT in pure electric new energy vehicles accounts for about 7-10%.
From the perspective of electronic control supporting manufacturers, the top 10 manufacturers of electronic control supporting number in 2021 are: Tesla, Fordy Power, Huichuan Technology, Azure Power, United Automotive Electronics, Sunshine Electric Power, Nidec, Shanghai Electric Drive, Yangteng Electronics, Intel, corresponding to the number of installed sets accounted for 13.8%, 13.6%, 8.7%, 6.6%, 6.2%, 6.2%, 4.4%, 3.5%, 3.4%, 3.2%, a total of 69.6% The top 10 local manufacturers occupied 6 seats, accounting for 42.0% in total.
Looking forward to the future, although the mainland motor controller is relatively backward, and more than 90% of the core components IGBT rely on imports, high-quality enterprises such as BYD, Star Semiconductor, and CRRC Times Electric have begun to work hard to catch up, and it is believed that the pace of domestic substitution will accelerate. Although the global IGBT market is still occupied by Infineon, Mitsubishi Electric, Fuji Electric, ON Semiconductor and ABB, the total market share of the five major manufacturers exceeds 70%. It is worth noting that at present, local manufacturers in the mainland, such as BYD, still have a certain breakthrough in IGBT research and development, and at the end of 2021, BYD said that IGBT 5.0 technology based on high-density Trench FS has achieved mass production. With automotive-grade semiconductors as the core, BYD Semiconductor simultaneously promotes the development of semiconductor business in the fields of industry, home appliances, new energy, and consumer electronics, and continues to mass-produce IGBT, SiC, IPM, MCU and other products. BYD Semiconductor is the world's first and only power semiconductor company in China to realize the large-scale loading of SiC three-phase full-bridge modules in the motor drive controller of new energy vehicles.
In 2025, the scale of domestic drive motors is expected to expand by 5 times and break through 100 billion. According to public information collation, 2016-2020 mainland new energy vehicle drive motor market size from 7.4 billion yuan to nearly 22 billion yuan, an increase of nearly twice, with the mainland new energy vehicle penetration rate and domestic motor replacement rate further improved, the scale of motor electronic control is expected to continue to climb, it is expected that in 2025 China's new energy vehicle drive motor market size will exceed 100 billion yuan. According to EVTank's forecast, the installed capacity of new energy vehicle drive motors in mainland China is expected to exceed 10 million units in 2025, which is 3-4 times the current installed capacity, and the CAGR in the next 4 years is 35.1%, with greater market potential.
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Charging pile
In order to better support the development of new energy vehicles, the development of the charging pile industry in the mainland has also been paid much attention. As early as the 13th Five-Year Plan in 2016, it was mentioned that "in accordance with the principle of local suitability and moderate advancement, priority should be given to the construction of charging infrastructure in public service areas in urban development, and actively promote the construction of charging piles for parking in residential areas and units". In 2020, charging piles were included in the new infrastructure and written into the government work report for the first time. Later, in the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2021, it was mentioned again, requiring the acceleration of the expansion of charging piles.
Benefiting from national policy incentives and downstream demand, the construction of public charging infrastructure in mainland China has been rapid. According to the China Charging Alliance, the number of charging piles in the mainland increased from 66,000 units in 2015 to 2.617 million units in 2021, an increase of more than 33 times; of which the number of public piles and private piles was 1.147 million and 1.470 million units, respectively. According to the Ministry of Public Security, the number of new energy vehicles in the mainland increased from 420,000 in 2015 to 7.84 million in 2021, a cumulative increase of more than 18 times. The corresponding vehicle-to-pile ratio decreased from 6.4:1 in 2015 to 3:1 in 2021.
However, there is still a big gap in the 1:1 ratio from the car to the pile, and construction will be accelerated in the future to ensure public demand. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2020, it is estimated that by 2030, the number of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 64.2 million. According to the construction target of 1:1 vehicle-to-pile ratio, there will be a gap of 63 million yuan in the construction of charging piles in the mainland in the next decade, and it is expected to form a 1.02 trillion yuan charging pile infrastructure construction market. Obviously, the construction of charging infrastructure will also become a top priority.
3
Intelligent and networked
Intelligent networked vehicle refers to the organic combination of vehicle networking and intelligent vehicle, which is equipped with advanced on-board sensors, controllers, actuators and other devices, and integrates modern communication and network technology to realize the intelligent information exchange and sharing between vehicles and people, roads, backgrounds, etc., to achieve safe, comfortable, energy-saving, efficient driving, and ultimately a new generation of cars that can replace people to operate.
In 2016, the Strategic Advisory Committee of the Energy Conservation and New Energy Technology Roadmap and the Society of Automotive Engineers of China proposed the "three horizontal and two vertical" technical framework for intelligent and connected vehicles in the release of the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap", which was later revised to the "three vertical and three horizontal" new technology architecture in 2017. The three horizontals emphasize technology, including: vehicle/facility technology, information interaction technology, and basic support technology; the three vertical emphasize scenarios, corresponding to: highway automatic driving, urban automatic driving, and shared automatic driving.
The upstream of the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain is mainly:
1) Perception system, which involves cameras, lidar, millimeter wave radar, high-precision maps, positioning systems, etc.;
2) Control system, which involves algorithm chips, operating systems, etc.;
3) Communication system, including electronic and electrical architecture and cloud platform;
The midstream of the industrial chain is mainly divided into:
1) Execution system, such as ASAS execution, intelligent central control, voice interaction, etc.;
2) Vehicle manufacturing; finally, the downstream is maintenance and operation and other services, including development and testing, travel services, logistics services, etc.
According to Ieraserch's data, the scale of the mainland's intelligent and connected vehicle industry has increased from 79.2 billion yuan in 2016 to 255.6 billion yuan in 2020, 3 times in 5 years. According to the Calculation of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, the new output value of intelligent and connected vehicles will be about 800 billion yuan in 2025. From the perspective of the overall industry of intelligent networking, at present, domestic enterprises in the mainland have completed the layout in many links of the industrial chain. In the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain, the more representative companies are Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, NavInfo, iFLYTEK, Neusoft Group, etc.
Smart driving
According to the "Automobile Driving Automation Classification" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in March 2020, domestic autopilot is divided into 6 levels from 0 to 5. It is mainly necessary to understand that level 0-2 is an auxiliary system, and level 3-5 can be called an automatic driving system. With the assistance of the level 0-2 system, the detection and response to targets and events still needs to be completed by the driver and the system, and the system is responsible for level 3 and above. At present, most of the cars sold in the market are equipped with level 2 or below driver assistance systems, familiar with parallel assist, active brake assist, adaptive cruise, automatic parking and so on. Autonomous driving such as Level 3 and Level 4 is still mainly used in heavy truck transportation in closed scenarios such as ports and mines, and there are few passenger cars.
The most core incremental part of the intelligent car that distinguishes it from the traditional car is the intelligent driving system, and the automatic driving can be divided into three core modules according to the function: the perception system (environmental perception and positioning), the decision system (intelligent planning and decision-making), and the execution system (control execution). The automatic driving system is ultimately to replace people, if it is analogous to people, as shown in the following figure: the perceptual layer is equivalent to the human five senses, perceiving the surrounding environment, collecting data to the decision-making layer; the decision-making layer is equivalent to the human brain, processing the data transmitted by the perception layer, and outputting the corresponding execution instructions to the execution layer; the execution layer is equivalent to the human limbs, executing the instructions given by the brain. Among them, the perception layer mainly includes three parts, environmental perception, position perception and other perceptions such as speed and pressure.
The core technology of the perception system is in the sensor, and the main technical solutions are: camera, lidar, ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar, among which the lidar scheme has significant advantages over other sensors in terms of accuracy, resolution, detection distance, three-dimensional modeling, and anti-jamming ability. As shown in the following table, the current autonomous driving perception scheme of some mainstream car companies is mainly composed of, "1 front-view camera + 4 surround view cameras + 12 ultrasonic radar + 3-5 millimeter wave radar"; lidar is not used, the core reason is that lidar technology is not mature enough, and the cost is extremely expensive.
The core of the autonomous driving decision-making layer is in the computing platform. The computing platform consists of software and hardware; the core of the software is in the algorithm (dedicated algorithm, matched with the chip), and the core of the hardware is in the chip. A computing platform can include a variety of chips, such as Huawei's MDC300 computing platform consists of 1 CPU chip (Kunpeng) + 4 Ai chips (Ascend). At present, there are two well-known suppliers of intelligent driving computing platforms in China: Huawei and Horizon; among them, Huawei's representative computing platforms are MDC300 and MDC600, and the corresponding chips are CPU Kunpeng chips and Ai Shengteng chips; Horizon representative computing platforms are Matrix, and the corresponding chips have Journey 2 Ai chips.
At present, the mainland computing platform suppliers are still in the early stage of commercialization, and their actual application effects still need to be verified by customers; therefore, the current domestic autonomous driving chips are basically completely purchased. Taking some of the new car-making forces as an example, as shown in the following table, the intelligent driving system and the intelligent human-computer interaction system can be self-developed, but the intelligent driving chip is basically monopolized by Mobileye and NVIDIA.
It is estimated that the intelligent driving space in mainland China is expected to exceed 220 billion yuan in 2025 and reach 500 billion yuan in 2030. McKinsey's research report, "12 Disruptive Technologies Shaping the Future economy in 2025," ranks autonomous driving as the sixth of the twelve disruptive technologies. The current market predicts that the global autonomous driving market size will reach $500 billion in 2030, which is four times more than the $113.8 billion in 2020. Mainland China's intelligent driving space is expected to exceed 220 billion yuan in 2025 and reach 500 billion yuan in 2030. On the subdivision track, the growth of computing platforms and lidar is more certain, and the compound growth rate in the next 10 years may exceed 30%. It will lead the mainland to a great extent in the continuous development of chips, sensors, software algorithms and other fields. In terms of investment and financing, the field related to automatic driving is the hot direction of investment and financing at present and even in the next few years. According to enterprise investigation data, there have been 376 investment and financing incidents in autonomous driving projects in the past decade, with a total financing amount of nearly 237.75 billion yuan. In 2020, the total amount of disclosed financing reached 43.63 billion yuan, an increase of 136.9% year-on-year. In 2020, WM Motors, Xiaopeng Motors, Faraday Future (Faraday Future), Didi Autonomous Driving, etc. have all made financing progress, and Xiaopeng Motors has obtained 4 financings during the year, with a total financing amount of 9.95 billion yuan.
In the future, the development of intelligent driving will rely on the two-way stimulation of the car company and the client. On the one hand, for the client, the further development of intelligent driving will rely on the strong purchase demand of users and its safer driving method for users. According to PwC's 2017 survey data, in the mainland, 85% of buyers hope that the car they buy has a mature autonomous driving function, and they hope that they can eat, entertain, rest and so on freely in the driving process in the future. At the same time, another selling point of intelligent driving is that after its development and maturity, it is expected to effectively reduce the occurrence of major traffic accidents. According to a study by the IIHS of the National Association for Highway Safety and Insurance, the study counted more than 5,000 traffic accidents in the past, of which nearly 30% could be avoided by self-driving technology. On the other hand, for car companies, through the sale of intelligent driving related software, it will become a new profit growth point for car companies. According to McKinsey's estimates, the proportion of software-driven revenue of car companies will increase from 7% in 2010 to 30% in 2030. And drive the rapid growth of the value of bicycles, of which pure electric models will grow from 0.23 million US dollars in 2025 to 18,200 US dollars in 2030, an increase of about 7 times; there is a market space of 50 billion US dollars in the next decade. Taking Tesla as an example, in October 2016, Tesla began to configure Autopilot hardware on its factory models, and users can choose whether to pay to turn on EAP (Enhanced Automatic Assisted Driving) and FSD (Full AutoPilot). FSD history has undergone four price increases, doubling from the initial $6,000 to $12,000 in 2022. According to Tesla's 2021 Q3 earnings report, Tesla's services revenue including FSD in the third quarter was $894 million, accounting for 6.5% of the quarterly revenue of $13.757 billion.
Smart cockpit
The intelligent cockpit is another key track for the development of automobiles in addition to intelligent driving, which is mainly aimed at the user side, that is, "human intelligence" and "human-vehicle interaction". Compared with automatic driving, "vehicle-to-road interaction", the intelligent cockpit is now a relatively mature plate in intelligence. The intelligent cockpit is composed of different cockpit electrons into a complete system, gradually integrating advanced technologies in the field of electronics and artificial intelligence, with human-computer interaction as the ultimate goal, so that consumers can change the cognition of the car from "single means of transportation" to "third space", and the entertainment and functionality of the car cockpit are continuously enhanced.
At present, there are many types of intelligent cockpits, and their basic functions include: navigation, audio-visual entertainment, communication, vehicle information query, vehicle control and so on. The main hardware can be summarized into four parts: central control large screen (including car infotainment system), streaming media central rearview mirror, head-up display system HUD, and full LCD instrument. According to statistics, in 2020, the on-board penetration rate of the central control large screen, the streaming media central rearview mirror, the head-up display system HUD, and the full LCD instrument are 80%, 7%, 10%, and 30%, respectively, and it is expected that in 2025, its penetration rate can reach 100%, 30%, 30%, and 70%, respectively.
In the past, the development of car cockpits has gone from simplistic to today' increasingly intelligent and technological. Its development has gone through three stages: the first stage (before 2000), about the 1930s, Chevrolet, Cadillac began to carry car radios; in 1965 Ford equipped with tape players; 1986 Buick introduced a touchable central control screen. At this stage, the cockpit is less electronic, and only the relatively simple in-vehicle infotainment function can be provided. In the second stage (2001-2015), the car cockpit was gradually electronically realized in this stage, and the on-board screen became a liquid crystal display, and gradually equipped with Functions such as Bluetooth and navigation. However, the screen is generally smaller, the service content is relatively simple, the sense of entertainment is not enough, and more is still based on functionality. In the third stage (2016-present), the current car cockpit has become the mainstream of large screen and multi-screen, integrating many advanced technologies, HUD, streaming media rearview mirrors, etc. have developed rapidly, and truly entered the era of intelligent cockpit. The vehicle gradually realized voice interaction, 360-degree panoramic camera, car wifi, car video and other functions. For example, in recent years, Tesla has launched a central control large screen; Huawei's first Hongmeng automobile was officially released, using a range extender power, named AITO Q&A M5.
Looking forward to the future, the smart cockpit may be the first to usher in the development trend, mainly because of consumer demand and technical support. On the one hand, from the perspective of consumer demand, drivers and passengers have higher living needs in the car, for drivers, more convenient cockpit active assistance will bring them a more intelligent driving experience; for passengers, their expectations for car intelligence will take the initiative to benchmark the development of mobile phone intelligence, hoping that the vehicle entertainment information system can meet their own personalized needs. According to the "Smart Cockpit Development Trend White Paper" jointly released by Roland Berger and Horizon, the user's demand trend for cars has changed from safety-oriented - > active intelligence + content + service, according to IHS Markit's market survey, 61.3% of users believe that smart cockpit configuration will greatly improve their willingness to buy a car, 17.4% of users believe that smart cockpit related functions are necessary for buying a car. On the other hand, the technical barriers of the intelligent cockpit are lower than intelligent driving, and there is a development path of smart phones as a reference, and because it does not involve chassis control, it will basically not affect the driving safety of the vehicle, and it will not be easily affected by laws and regulations, the overall realization is less difficult, and the commercialization process will be smoother.
At present, the penetration rate of smart cockpit configuration in new vehicles in the Chinese market is close to 50%, and it is expected to exceed 75% by 2025. In the future, by 2025, the market size of smart cockpits is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, the annual compound rate will reach 12.7%, and the market size is expected to reach 150 billion yuan in 2030.
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Sharing
Sharing is a new economic concept that emerged in 2016, and it is essentially a new business model. In the automotive space, car sharing refers to the fact that many people share a car, and people use this new mode of travel to increase travel efficiency and reduce air pollution. The concept of sharing is actually more like the product of the "Internet ++" era, because if you really want to achieve sharing in the future, you actually need to establish a large and reasonable data system, that is, strengthen the ability to configure information through platform construction.
At the policy level, in April 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology proposed in the "Medium- and Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" to innovate travel and service models, expand the network ecosystem including transportation logistics, shared travel, user interaction, information utilization and other elements, and determine the strategic development direction of automobile sharing. In August of the same year, the Ministry of Communications and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Small and Micro Passenger Car Leasing", which proposed to encourage the development of time-sharing leasing, and clearly pointed out that the vehicle parking and charging infrastructure involved in sharing cars should be supported, affirming the positive significance of shared cars.
At present, there are two main models of car sharing, one is the time-sharing rental model in the field of car rental, which refers to the enterprise to provide the car with hours or days of on-demand rental services, consumers can book car rental hours according to personal car needs and car time, and their charges will be calculated by the hour. This model is already very common abroad, but the domestic popularity is low. The second is the online ride-hailing model formed in the field of travel services, such as the well-known Didi and Shouqi ride-hailing. From the perspective of the ride-hailing market, according to the "Statistical Report on the Development of China's Internet Network" released by the China Internet Network Information Center, as of June 2021, the scale of online ride-hailing users in the mainland reached 397 million, accounting for 39.2% of the total number of netizens. Overall, the development of ride-hailing has successfully accumulated a good user base.
At present, the development of sharing has slowed down, which needs the support of top-level design and the development of digital economy, so the explosive period of sharing development should be after the relative maturity of intelligence and networking. On the one hand, we have seen that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, many cities have stopped the operation of car time-sharing and online car-hailing services during special periods, which has made the development of sharing in the past two years stagnate for a while, and it has not yet recovered to the highest level in 2018. On the other hand, there are still many problems in car sharing in industry management and vehicle management. For the enterprise side, the current business model of sharing, whether it is time-sharing leasing or hitchhiking, is still unclear. Looking back at history, in terms of time-sharing leasing, represented by two-wheelers, OFO small yellow cars have failed due to excessive competition in the industry, malicious destruction of vehicles, blind expansion of their own production, and many other internal and external factors; in terms of hitchhiking, taking the AMERICAN listed companies Uber and lyft as an example, the two companies have not turned losses into wins so far. Looking at Didi, whether it is customer security or national data security, it has always been a problem that remains to be solved.