Introduction
As a major carbon emitter in the mainland and the main force in transportation, commercial vehicles are a powerful hand to promote the automotive industry to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System", proposing to actively promote the application of new energy vehicles in urban buses and other fields, and by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for about 20%.
Under the impetus of policies, the pace of implementing carbon peak carbon neutrality in the commercial vehicle industry will be further accelerated, and the rapid growth of new energy, the increase in penetration rate, intelligent development and full coverage of models have become a new trend in the development of the commercial vehicle market.
1
The growth rate is high but the penetration rate is still low
At the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held recently, Yutong Bus's self-driving hydrogen fuel bus appeared in the exhibition area, attracting the attention of the guests.
"This new product, which has undergone three generations of iterative research and development, can fully meet the operation needs of diverse environments such as plains, mountains and plateaus." Li Gaopeng, president of The New Energy Research Institute of Yutong Group, introduced.
Promoting the application of new energy vehicles is considered by the industry to be an important way for commercial vehicles to promote "double carbon". Commercial vehicle sales have continued to decline, but new energy commercial vehicles are thriving, production and sales are booming, showing a good situation of both market scale and development quality. In 2021, new energy commercial vehicles sold 197,000 units, up 51.4% year-on-year and a penetration rate of 4.2%.
Many car companies are scrambling to lay out and deepen the new energy commercial vehicle market. BYD delivered more than 85,000 pure electric commercial vehicles worldwide in 2021. In 2014, Geely Holding Group established Geely Commercial Vehicles, and in 2016, it officially established a commercial vehicle brand focusing on the field of new energy - remote vehicles.
Liu Hanru, chief scientist of Geely Commercial Vehicle Group, introduced that long-range vehicles quickly seized the market in 2021, and quickly established the leading position in the new energy commercial vehicle industry through product and business model innovation, and the overall sales volume of the whole year increased by 288% year-on-year.
Xu Honglei, vice president of the Planning research institute of the Ministry of Transport, said that the penetration rate of new energy models in the field of commercial vehicles is lower than that of passenger cars. Pure electric commercial vehicles have become the mainstream models of new energy commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid models sales have declined year by year, there are three main reasons: one is the technical bottleneck, the existing battery energy density can not meet the actual needs of commercial vehicles long-distance heavy-duty transportation; the second is the cost bottleneck, the current pure electric, hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in the purchase cost are significantly higher than diesel trucks, hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles the use cost is generally higher than diesel trucks; third, there is no carbon emission standards, Carbon reduction in commercial vehicles cannot yet be controlled at the source.
There is still a certain gap between the development of new energy commercial vehicles and passenger cars, but it also indicates potential and future. Cai Tuanjie, director of the Department of Transport Services of the Ministry of Transport, said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the new promotion targets of new energy vehicles will be further clarified, and by the end of 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the field of urban buses, taxis, logistics and distribution will reach 72%, 35% and 20% respectively.
2
Heavy goods vehicles are key to reducing emissions
Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have been continuously raised, driving the rapid growth of sales of new energy commercial vehicles, especially new energy heavy trucks. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks were 3223 units, an increase of 1076% year-on-year, of which pure electric heavy-duty trucks accounted for more than 99%. It is understood that the supply of new energy heavy trucks is currently in short supply, and the orders of some enterprises have been scheduled to May.
Heavy goods vehicles are the key to reducing emissions from commercial vehicles. Xu Honglei introduced that in the carbon emission calculation of commercial vehicles, the carbon emissions of all commercial vehicles account for nearly 65% of the carbon emissions of all vehicles, of which the carbon emissions of heavy trucks account for 83.5%, which is the key model of all vehicles with carbon emission reduction.
The hot sales of new energy heavy trucks began with the "Notice on the Confirmation of National VI Emission Products of Heavy-duty Diesel Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The Notice requires that from July 1, 2021, all enterprises will stop producing and selling heavy-duty diesel vehicle products that do not meet the requirements of China VI standards. This means that emissions have become an important limiting indicator for the production of heavy trucks. Two months later, the new energy heavy truck ushered in the inflection point of development.
Liang Linhe, director of Sany Group and chairman of Sany Heavy Truck, introduced that for many years, the concentration of the domestic heavy truck market has been high, and the five state-owned automobile companies at the head occupy more than 80% of the market share. New energy has changed the original pattern, in 2021, the sales of new energy heavy trucks of the traditional top five OEM OEMs will only be 17%, and 83% of the share will be dominated by new energy forces. He expects that the new energy heavy trucks will maintain high growth in the next few years.
"With the gradual improvement of the new energy product system and the continuous maturity of the three electric technology, more and more users will choose new energy models." Ma Xinlei, a heavy-duty truck dealer in Beijing, believes that in the context of the continuous acceleration of the process of new energy for commercial vehicles, dealers should seize the opportunity, change their business ideas, and actively explore the new energy truck market.
3
Promote carbon reduction in the entire industrial chain
To achieve carbon reduction in commercial vehicles, it is necessary to build an energy-saving and carbon-reduction ecosystem based on green energy. Only by realizing the carbon reduction of the whole industrial chain can we truly achieve the goal of "double carbon".
Wu Xibin, general manager of Beiqi Foton Automobile Co., Ltd., said that commercial vehicles are different from passenger cars, and the technical routes for carbon reduction under different use scenarios are different. At present, Foton Motor can promote the energy-saving and carbon-saving development of the commercial vehicle industry through different technical routes - pure electric, fuel cell, hybrid, etc. based on the customer's usage scenarios and working conditions, combined with the product functions and characteristics of commercial vehicles.
To build a green ecosystem in the whole value chain of commercial vehicles, parts remanufacturing is an indispensable part. Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out that compared with the original manufacturing, the remanufacturing of auto parts can save more than 70% of materials and energy consumption, reduce manufacturing costs by 30% to 50%; compared with the manufacture of new products, the adverse impact on the environment is significantly reduced. Vigorously developing the parts remanufacturing industry is of great significance to the automotive industry to reduce emissions and carbon, energy conservation and cost reduction, as well as to promote the realization of the "double carbon" goal.
However, at present, there are problems in the remanufacturing industry of auto parts in mainland China that are small, scattered and weak. Ye Shengji suggested that relevant departments should not only continuously cultivate and tap market demand, but also promote the establishment and improvement of policies and regulations, and relevant areas should promote the construction of industrial bases to form an industrial agglomeration effect. From the perspective of enterprises, we should further strengthen the scientific and technological innovation of the auto parts remanufacturing industry, improve the equipment and production capacity of dismantling, cleaning, manufacturing, assembly, etc., and at the same time, further standardize the evaluation and certification system of remanufactured products, and actively promote the digital transformation of remanufacturing technology and equipment.
"In addition to deep electrification, there is also intelligent efficiency." Xu Honglei said that the efficiency of wisdom refers to the use of smart technology to realize the automatic driving of commercial vehicles and the interaction between vehicle networks in the future development of commercial vehicles, and further improve energy utilization efficiency.
"The opportunity for a reshuffle of the supply chain has arrived." Liang Linhe believes that energy change, technological change and industry change have flattened the starting line of the brand, and traditional brands no longer have inherent advantages. The new energy commercial vehicle brand has also ushered in a reshuffle, and a new head enterprise will be born.