There is not much time left for traditional car companies
Photo: Deep Sea
Edit: Mei Mei
The volume and price have risen together, which is probably the adjective that can best describe the current new energy automobile industry.
After the collective price increase of many car companies in January, since March, many car companies have been forced to announce a new round of new energy vehicle price increases.
Due to the impact of factors such as the rise in raw materials, various new energy vehicle companies began to raise their cars, and the price increase ranged from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan. According to the incomplete combing of various media, including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Weima and other 20 new energy vehicle companies, more than 40 models of the price increase, and Tesla even increased the price twice in a week.
However, on the other hand, the terminal performance of the new energy vehicle market does not seem to be affected in any way, from January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland completed 820,000 and 765,000 units respectively, of which the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 652,000 units and 605,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year, and continued to maintain the momentum of rapid development. Even exports exceeded 100,000 vehicles.
The momentum of new energy vehicles is unstoppable. It is showing a deep strategic logic and conclusion: perhaps as the just held electric vehicle 100 people meeting, including the government, scholars and various companies jointly stated, there is no way back, leaving little time for traditional car companies.
01
Price increases have never been a short-term factor, and the rapid switching of new and old tracks is fundamental
The new energy vehicles invariably continue to rise in price, the fundamental reason is that the upstream raw material prices rose "city gate fire", after the transmission of the industrial chain, it eventually affected the "pond fish" of the vehicle enterprise.
On the one hand, the pace of electrification of mainstream car companies has accelerated, the power battery industry has expanded madly, on the other hand, the epidemic has been repeated, the global trade environment driven by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has deteriorated, and the nickel price speculation has been triggered. The price of key raw materials that lead to power batteries continues to rise, and new energy vehicles are forced to raise prices.
But from a strategic point of view, what is important is not a consensus on price increases, but a deep signal based on the future: the switching between old and new tracks is accelerating.
As Academician Ouyang Minggao mentioned, although the driving force for the growth of new energy vehicle sales will exist for a long time, the amplification of lithium resource demand brought about by panic inventory reserves is temporary. With the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity and mining capacity, the battery recycling industry has gradually grown, and it is expected that after 2-3 years, lithium resources will return to the balance of supply and demand. Mainland battery production capacity is expected to reach 1.5TWh in 2023, 3TWh in 2025, it can be optimistically estimated that by 2025, the annual demand for domestic batteries / annual shipments will be about 1.2TWh, when there will be a high probability of periodic overcapacity.
Obviously, when the power battery ushers in a new balance of supply and demand, the automobile industry will usher in a completely different pattern: the old pattern is completely gone, and only new players will be placed in the new pattern.
02
The window period left by new energy is only the next two years or so
The complexity of the automotive industry is destined not to repeat the consumer electronics industry revolution represented by mobile phones exactly the same. But once it comes out, it is also unstoppable.
At the meeting of 100 electric vehicles, Academician Ouyang Minggao also said that after repeated calculations, it is expected that the sales of traditional fuel vehicles will be basically close to the peak in 2022, and the sales performance of subsequent fuel vehicles may decline rapidly, and new energy vehicles will enter a period of rapid growth, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will be the same as that of fuel vehicles around 2030.
Zhu Huarong of Changan Automobile also said at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum that in the next three to five years, the development space of traditional car companies will be more narrow. In 2021, there are 85 brands in the traditional fuel vehicle market, of which 34 brands have monthly sales of less than 1,000 units; 9 brands have disappeared. In the next 3-5 years, 80% of Chinese fuel vehicle brands will be 'shut down and turned'.
This window of opportunity, if you want to take into account the integration of electrification and intelligence, may even be further reduced.
After all, in the face of this round of profound scientific and technological revolution, it is necessary to put the future car in a larger category of thinking, electrification opens the prelude to this automobile revolution, intelligent plugs in the wings of rapid development, and finally realizes the collaborative integration of intelligent vehicles, smart energy, intelligent transportation, and smart cities.
This rapid development process will not give the old players much time.
03
The next step for traditional car companies is that it is both stable and fast
At first listen, stability and speed are almost a natural contradiction, how can they have both at the same time.
However, for traditional automobile companies on the road of transformation, we must do a good job in this kind of consideration.
The first important thing is to both strategy and operation to achieve benign sustainable development. A business model that continues to lose money is doomed to have no way out.
Wuling, as the creator of the god car, is already reminding all players. On March 23, Wuling Motors posted an explanation on the price adjustment of new energy models on its official Weibo. It is proposed to raise the official guidance price of its Hongguang MINIEV, Wuling NanoEV, Baojun KiWiEV and other models, ranging from 4,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan, which will take effect at 0:00 on March 24.
Whether such a market competition strategy of extreme cost, price reduction and small profits and quick sales can be done once and for all, and whether it can truly bring sustainable development.
Secondly, there is also the choice of technical routes, no more than Tesla, Wei Xiaoli, traditional car companies still need to develop a balanced road. In addition to EVs, there are also a variety of routes such as HEV, PHEV, and REV. Compared with EV models, these technical routes also have their own advantages, such as relatively low cost, long endurance, convenient energy replenishment and other advantages, no mileage anxiety, in line with the current energy reality, and with the dual needs of the market and the environment electrification path.
How to respond to the needs of many consumers and find a breakthrough path suitable for themselves is an important issue facing traditional car companies.
Write at the end
Although no one knows what the future holds, there is no doubt that the old times are no longer there. In the face of new forces, traditional automobile companies may not have no way out. It's just that as far as the entire industry development trend and competition pattern are concerned, as written at the beginning, there is not much time left for traditional car companies.