Author 丨 Zhang Zhidong
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
80% of car brands shut down? 50% of the component system reconstruction is more important.
"Starting in 2022, traditional fuel vehicles will peak and will continue to decline in the future."
On March 26, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, predicted at the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum that the inflection point of traditional fuel vehicles is coming, and new energy vehicles will also usher in a new period of growth.
At the same time, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, also put forward a similar view, even more radical: with the addition of new energy vehicles, the competition in China's fuel vehicle market will become more intense. In the next 3-5 years, it is expected that 80% of Chinese brand cars will be shut down and turned.
It is certain that the views of academician Ouyang Minggao and chairman Zhu Huarong, two representatives of the academic community and the industry, further corroborate the fact that new energy vehicles are about to "catch up later".
But it also has to admit that if you want to truly refine steel, China's new energy vehicle brands must also go through thousands of hammers in the battle of "blood and fire".
Just as the theme of this electric vehicle 100 people forum - "greeting a new stage of market-oriented development of new energy vehicles", with the impact of various internal and external factors, more and more variables are generated, and today's new energy vehicle market has officially entered the second half of the "melee".
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said: "The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 28% in March, the current market drive accounts for 70%, policies account for 30%, and the new energy penetration rate is expected to reach 35% by the end of this year." ”
The good news is that new energy vehicles are developing rapidly; the worry is that with the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the cost of power batteries has risen, the supply of chips is insufficient, and the problem of reconfiguration of new energy vehicle products has also emerged.
01
Power battery, the world three points
At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, power battery companies have become a force that cannot be ignored. According to the technology advocated by battery manufacturers, the current technical pattern of the domestic power battery market is becoming clearer.
First of all, it is the "technical iteration school" led by the Ningde era and BYD.
As a veteran player of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, battery manufacturers on this side are more willing to innovate and carry out technical iterations on the basis of the original battery technology.
At the Forum of the 100 Electric Vehicles Society, Wu Kai, chief scientist of the Ningde era, launched the third-generation CTP technology of the Ningde era - Kirin Battery.
According to reports, the weight, energy density and volume energy density of the Kirin battery system continue to lead the industry at the highest level. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared with the 4680 system (Tesla's).
At the same time, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu also spoke for his own blade battery: lithium iron phosphate as a key material, the cruising range of 500km, energy density is no longer important, more attention should be paid to safety, lithium iron phosphate does not contain precious metals, the material will not be stuck neck.
Secondly, it is a "large cylindrical battery pie" based on BAK power and Ewell lithium energy.
Perhaps seeing the forward-looking Tesla 4680 battery, or a deep understanding of the industry, Liu Jincheng, chairman of Ewell Lithium Energy, believes that the large cylinder has become the ultimate battery technology direction; and Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK Power, claims that the future of the large cylindrical power battery can be expected.
In BAK Power's estimates, the demand for power batteries will exceed 1,600 GWh in 2025, of which large cylindrical batteries will account for 30% and will exist as a luxury solution for electric vehicles, while square/blade batteries are economical solutions for electric vehicles.
In fact, although the large cylindrical battery has many advantages such as simple process, high standardization, few structural parts at the whole level, and simple groups, it should be noted that the difficulty of the large cylindrical battery is also obvious - its welding, roll pressing, slitting, winding and other aspects, the technology needs to be matured.
Finally, it is the "technological innovator" based on Weilan New Energy and SES. Although this faction is younger, it is unique in battery technology.
At this forum, Li Hong, chief scientist and founder of Weilan New Energy, revealed that Weilan New Energy is indeed cooperating with Weilai Automobile.
Based on the ET7 model, the two parties plan to launch a hybrid solid-liquid electrolyte battery with a single charge range of 1,000 kilometers, with a battery pack of 150 kWh and an energy density of 360Wh/kg, and will be mass-produced and delivered as soon as the end of this year.
SES's hybrid liquid lithium metal battery solution can also be improved, and the energy density is as high as 417Wh/kg.
It is understood that at present, SES is working with General Motors, Hyundai, honda for joint development of A samples, according to the plan, 2023 B samples, 2024 C samples, 2025 can officially achieve mass production.
It is true that there is no clear demarcation between the "three major factions", and even there will be a lot of overlap between them.
But it is worth thinking about that the huge power battery market cannot let a battery manufacturer dominate; at the same time, it is impossible to lose the ability to innovate because of the soaring price of upstream raw materials.
To be fair, it is precisely because of the ability to continuously innovate that it has been able to further solve the sudden increase in the cost of power trams and the subsequent development problems.
02
Domestic chips, how to revitalize?
So how to solve the problem of tight supply of on-board chips?
To figure out this problem, the first thing that needs to be clear is whether the current chip selection is decided by car companies or those Tier1s who are making up their minds.
Very simple logic, if it is decided by Tier1, then suppliers like Bosch must have a small probability of using domestic cores. As a result, it is difficult to carry out domestic substitution. As for the lack of market verification, why is the domestic core rising?
"The chip and operating system of the car regulation level are our shortcomings and weaknesses, the lack of core and soul, and the car regulation level is even more so."
Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, highlighted the lack of cores at this forum: "In the past, automobile factories basically ignored these things, and basically handed over to Tier1 to do this. ”
Therefore, it is conceivable that in order to realize the replacement of localization chips and then solve the supply problem of the core, a single chip breakthrough may not be able to play a role, and it needs to open up the chain of the entire automotive chip supply chain.
In the words of Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, "The bottom of the automobile power is the parts power." The subversiveness of future automobiles to traditional cars will make more than 50% of the traditional parts system face restructuring. ”
The good news is that the rapid development of domestic new energy vehicles provides this valuable opportunity for the restructuring of the automotive chip supply chain.
Of course, in addition to the top-down force, if you want to achieve the rise of domestic chips, you also need to have excellent product quality.
To be sure, the degree of intelligence of cars in the future is bound to be more thorough than it is now. Intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, intelligent network connection, are indispensable to the chip's computing power support.
From this point of view, The founder and CEO of Black Sesame Intelligence, Shan Jizhang, said that "2022 will be the year of mass production of domestic large-scale car rules chips", which coincides with the meeting. However, it is worth thinking that the intelligent core can not only be "computing power theory".
As Yu Kai, founder and chief scientist of Horizon, proposed, the chip and OS are the innovative digital base of the intelligent car era, a good chip, indispensable to the "combination of soft and hard". The benefits of the combination of soft and hard are obvious, on the one hand, it is conducive to the iterative update of the chip itself, on the other hand, it is easier to share and commercialize.
It is gratifying that there are already many chip companies in the industry such as Horizon and Black Sesame, contributing their own strength to The Chinese core.
But it also has to admit the fact that taking smart driving chips as an example, Most of China's self-driving companies, as well as head car companies, have been "kidnapped" by international giants such as NVIDIA.
It is true that choosing a foreign supplier is the easiest and fastest way to achieve results. But I still want to say, if you can, please pay more attention to the domestic core, in fact, they can do better, but lack of an opportunity.
03
Hold your own "destiny"
Bai Li, global executive vice president of General Motors and president of General Motors China, proposed at the Electric Vehicle 100 Forum:
By 2025, GM will launch more than 30 electric vehicles worldwide, of which more than 20 will be available in China, with the ultimate goal of electrifying all new models by 2035.
BYD also did not show weakness, Wang Chuanfu pointed out that more than 60% of China's current families are still carless families, if pure electric vehicles focus on solving the need for additional purchases, then plug-in hybrid effectively solves more family first purchase and replacement needs.
In Wang Chuanfu's view, plug-in hybrid is an important path to achieve the goal of double carbon, and the change is relatively mild, which is conducive to the stability of the industrial chain supply chain and the smooth transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.
To sum up, the so-called hybrid and pure electricity dispute does not necessarily have to be "you die and I live", the relationship between the two is more like complementary, filling each other's user needs and promoting each other. In this way, it will be the main theme of the industry.
Another very interesting point, regarding the polishing of automotive products, Li would like to make a suggestion on the forum: AEB should be used as a standard function.
Automatic braking systems (AEB) can significantly reduce the likelihood of accidents caused by drivers' inattention, and road traffic safety can be further guaranteed as a result. Therefore, for Li Xiang's suggestion, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee, particularly agreed.
However, it is also worth noting that the current AEB function still has the problems of false alarms and inconsistent braking and stopping judgment standards.
In this way, the application experience effect of the terminal may not be satisfactory, or the car company has "reduced the allocation" of AEB functions for cost control reasons, but it may be self-defeating and increase the occurrence of accidents.
Looking at the entire market, affected by the "lack of core and less electricity", the new energy automobile industry has been repeatedly frustrated.
According to academician Ouyang Minggao's prediction, the balance of supply and demand of lithium resources will return to normal after 2-3 years; and in 2025, according to the existing planned production capacity, there may be overcapacity.
As for the supply of cores, due to the recent epidemic and war, core suppliers led by STMicroelectronics have once again ushered in a new wave of price increases.
On the whole, the new energy automobile industry will deal with a long-term battle.
However, in addition to the need to solve the problem of "lack of core and less electricity", new energy vehicles want to hold their own "destiny", but also should continue to polish their own product strength, with practical product quality, to cope with the upcoming "melee".
On the other hand, if the key node of the "market reversal" is in 2022, are you ready to meet the arrival of the era of new energy vehicles?
Zhang Zhidong
What a great writer,
It's just writing
One-sidedness of their own.
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