In 2024, the first issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, how large will the treasury bonds be issued in the past 10 years?

Southern Metropolis Daily

2024-05-17 19:39Posted on the official account of Guangdong Southern Metropolis Daily

On May 17, the 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds ushered in the first issuance, with a maturity of 30 years, a total face value of 40 billion yuan, and interest payment in the form of semi-annual interest. This year's "Government Work Report" mentioned that in order to systematically solve the problem of funding for the construction of some major projects in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years this year, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year.

*2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance arrangement.

This year, 22 ultra-long-term special government bonds will be issued

On May 13, the official website of the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on announcing the relevant arrangements for the issuance of general treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2024.

It can be seen from the combing notice that the Ministry of Finance has issued a number of general treasury bonds, ultra-long-term treasury bonds and savings treasury bonds this year. The 1 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special treasury bonds planned to be issued this year are divided into three varieties: 20-year, 30-year and 50-year, of which 7 are 20-year, which will be issued as early as May 24; There are 12 30-year ones, which were released as early as May 17; There are 3 50-year ones, which were released as early as June 14; Interest is paid on a semi-annual basis. In addition, the next electronic savings bond will be issued on June 10, and the interest will be paid annually.

In terms of treasury bond yield, the tender for the issuance of 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (phase I) has been completed, with a weighted winning yield of 2.57%, a market multiple of 3.9, and a marginal multiple of 382.6. According to the analysis of market participants, judging from the normal operation of the market in recent years, 2.5% to 3% may be a reasonable range for long-term treasury bond yields.

The Nandu Big Data Research Institute found that the mainland had issued three special treasury bonds in 1998, 2007 and 2020, which had a positive impact on the stable and positive development of the economy and society. In 1998, the central bank issued 270 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to the four major banks, and the central bank cooperated with the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio to supplement the capital adequacy ratio of the four major banks, with a maturity of 30 years; In 2007, 1.55 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds were issued for the purchase of foreign exchange to make up the investment principal, with a term of 10-15 years, issued in 8 phases, of which 1.35 trillion yuan was issued in a directional manner, and the remaining 200 billion yuan was issued to the public, and it was renewed in 2017 and 2022 respectively; In 2020, a 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds were publicly issued in four tranches for public health and anti-epidemic expenditures with a maturity of 10 years.

The issuance of special treasury bonds by the mainland.

The issuance scale of government bonds increased by 663.9% in 10 years

Special government bonds are government bonds issued for a specific purpose and have a specific purpose. Previously, Li Nan, an associate professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said in an interview with the media that the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds is based on some objective situations currently existing in the mainland: first, during the period when the economic development model shifts to high-quality development, there are many long-term capital needs in some regions and fields in the mainland; Second, in the past, some local governments raised market-oriented funds, forming a large number of urban investment bonds; Third, banks need to find new ways to use their funds.

The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds can solve the source of funds for some key projects in key areas and build more funding channels for banks in the context of resolving the problem of urban investment bonds. In contrast to special government bonds, which are used for special purposes and earmarked funds, ordinary government bonds are used to cover fiscal deficits and are included in the general budget management. In 2015, the first year of the comprehensive launch of the local government debt management reform, the Ministry of Finance stepped up the issuance of government bonds, and the scale of treasury bond issuance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time.

In 2016, the Ministry of Finance deepened the market-oriented reform of treasury bond issuance, improved the maturity structure of treasury bonds, issued three-month treasury bonds on a weekly basis throughout the year, increased the scale of treasury bonds issued for less than two years, and appropriately increased the scale of 30-year treasury bonds. At the same time, we will improve the bidding and issuance mechanism for local bonds and treasury bonds, and reduce the bidding period from 5 working days to 3 working days. By 2023, the scale of the mainland bond market will grow steadily, with the issuance of 11 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, an increase of 663.9% compared with 2014.

The scale of treasury bond issuance over the years since 2014.

What is the impact of ultra-long-term special government bonds on the public?

According to expert analysis, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is beneficial to both the present and the long-term, which will help stimulate investment and consumption, promote the transformation of economic momentum, build a modern industrial system, and develop new quality productive forces. Helps to optimize the debt structure. Compared with local governments, the central government's issuance of bonds has a lower cost and longer cycle, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have formed high-quality assets, which also avoids the risks caused by excessive leverage by local governments, making room for local finances.

What is the impact of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on ordinary citizens? Some analysts say that for ordinary investors, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds provide a safe and stable investment option. These treasury bonds have relatively high yields, are guaranteed by national credit, and have low risks, making them a preferred choice for personal and family financial management. Economist Pan and Lin believe that at this stage, market interest rates are declining, and stable assets are too scarce, and the issuance of treasury bonds at this time is actually in line with the expectations of investors with low risk appetite.

In addition, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds also has a positive impact on the level of social consumption. When the government uses the funds raised to invest in infrastructure construction and public services, it will drive the development of related industries, create more employment opportunities, and improve the income level of residents. For example, by improving the transportation network and building more public facilities, the quality of life and convenience of residents will be significantly improved.

Producer: Nandu Big Data Research Institute

Data collection and analysis: Yuan Jiongxian Design: Zhang Bo

Data sources: the official website of the Ministry of Finance, China's economic annual report, and the operation of the financial market of the People's Bank of China over the years

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