2021 is definitely unexpected.
This year not only had the covid-19 pandemic, but also the chip shortage that began at the beginning of the year, almost throughout the year, resulting in a global car production cut of more than 10 million vehicles. It should be noted that these are real orders, because there is no chip that has led to forced production cuts, and the entire industry has suffered huge losses as a result.
He Xiaopeng, the head of Xiaopeng Motors, said that he drank a lot of wine and wanted to get more chips.
But in any case, the magical year of 2021 is finally over. The next question is – what exactly will happen in 2022?
Officially bid farewell to the "lack of core"
Whether it is from the feedback of major car companies, or the judgment of industry institutions, or the news from the supply chain, it clearly shows a fact that as early as the second half of 2022, the dilemma of chip shortage will be effectively alleviated, and car companies will no longer have to worry about chip problems. Obviously, this will significantly increase the sales performance of global cars. Cutting production by more than 10 million cars in 2021 due to a lack of chips will never happen again. Authoritative forecasts show that in 2022, China's car sales will increase by 5% year-on-year to about 27.6 million units, and the growth rate of passenger cars will be even higher by 8%, which is expected to reach about 23 million units.
Achieved the sales promotion target of new energy vehicles three years ahead of schedule
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales achieved a big explosion, increasing by about 1.6 times in the whole year, and sales exceeded 3.52 million units, ranking first in the world for the seventh consecutive year. This staggering increase means that in 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles will maintain a strong posture, and sales will break out again. It is conservatively estimated that China's new energy vehicle sales will exceed 5 million in 2022 - if this figure is successfully reached, it will make the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" set out in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" target of reaching 20% of the total sales of new vehicles by 2025, achieved three years ahead of schedule, and China will once again consolidate the position of the world's largest automobile market and the world's largest new energy vehicle market.
Car prices have stabilized and fallen and returned to normal
In 2021, the price of cars has actually risen for consumers. Of course, the reasons for the rise are complex and diverse – both the factors that rise in upstream raw materials (such as soaring commodity prices) and the reasons for the rise in car prices caused by chip shortages. But in 2022, these factors will be alleviated to a certain extent, commodities will not rise forever, it is bound to go through an adjustment process, and after the chip farewell to the shortage era, there is no reason for dealers to increase the price of the car. The most obvious is the second-hand car, which also rose sharply last year because of the epidemic, but in 2022, whether it is a new car or a second-hand car, it will face a stable and declining process of returning to normal.
Toyota will be one of the biggest winners
Toyota is almost the biggest winner in the unfavorable market in 2021, with its two joint ventures in China, GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota, selling 840,000 units (up 11% year-on-year) and 860,000 vehicles (up 8% year-on-year) respectively, and both achieved growth far exceeding the average growth rate of the market. This provides a key guideline – if the sales trend in 2021 is followed, Guangfeng and Yifeng will both touch the historic threshold of annual sales of one million vehicles. This is a major milestone event in Toyota's China strategy and could accelerate Toyota's move toward electrification. It is worth mentioning that Toyota's hybrid sales in China have accounted for 25% of total sales.
The share of independent brands continues to soar
2021 is also a big year for China's own brand cars. In other words, in the Chinese auto market, independent brands have never fought such a rich battle – the market share exceeded 44%, a record high. What's going on in between? In fact, it is mainly related to the early and large action of China's independent brands in electrification. And what is even more gratifying is that Chinese brand cars not only play a key role in new energy vehicles, but also become stronger and stronger in the hybrid market, including BYD, Great Wall, Chery, etc. have released relevant technologies, which means that in 2022, The market share of Chinese independent brands will continue to increase significantly.
Driverless taxis are on the rise
One of the biggest manifestations of technological advances in the automotive industry in 2021 is the explosive news like Baidu's driverless taxis being put into use — needless to say, a complete subversion of the business model — that you just need to summon a driverless car and then you can go anywhere. But 2021 is just the beginning, belongs to the "first year", in 2022, with the further maturity of autonomous driving technology, driverless taxis will enter the commercial operation landing stage, similar to Baidu's "car robots" will emerge in an endless stream, more people have the opportunity to feel the novel experience of driverless taxis.
The "new car-making forces" entered the knockout rounds
In 2021, there will be a typical polarization phenomenon of "new car-making forces". On the one hand, Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng and Ideal Automobile have successively celebrated the important threshold of their cumulative sales of more than 100,000 vehicles and are accelerating their horse racing; on the other hand, the third and fourth-line "new car-making forces" such as Byton and Bo county have fallen into bankruptcy. After entering 2022, the rise in the industry concentration of "new car-making forces" will be a high probability event, showing the typical characteristics of the strong Hengqiang, and the number of sales will change frequently - Weima has been significantly left behind, and Nezha and Zero Run have achieved overtaking, and it is expected that this trend will continue in 2022.
The luxury brand market continues to expand
From the decline in China's auto market in 2018 to the re-increase in sales in 2021, a main line running through the middle is consumption upgrading, the most obvious sign of which is the continuous expansion of the market share of luxury cars. In 2021, luxury brand passenger car sales reached 3.472 million units, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year, up to 14 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of passenger cars, and the proportion of passenger car sales reached a record high of 16.2%. This situation is related to the consumption upgrade of users after the Chinese market enters the stock era, and it is also related to the fact that most luxury brands have lowered the price of entry-level models. By 2022, with increasingly fierce competition, it is expected that the luxury brand market will continue to show an expansion trend.
Independent brands "upward" to achieve a breakthrough
In the past few years, China's own brands have not only achieved major breakthroughs in sales and market share, but also gained a lot in high-end brands. For example, Hongqi, as a representative of domestic luxury brands, has sold more than 300,000 vehicles in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%, which is a performance that is difficult for all traditional luxury brands to achieve. In addition, Dongfeng's Lantu, SAIC's Zhiji, Changan Avita, etc., have either been put into production or have been established, which means that in 2022, China's independent luxury brands will usher in a new page.
The new energy market segment has developed greatly
In the past 2021, the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has attracted attention from all over the world, including being taken by traditional automobile powerhouse Japan for research. The emergence of this car typically reflects the huge imagination brought by the new energy segment under the tide of new energy. Wuling Hongguang MNI EV sold more than 400,000 vehicles in 2021, becoming a phenomenon-level hit, so in 2022, will other segments that understand consumers emerge more explosive products? The answer is clearly yes. It is expected that the sales of new energy will exceed 5 million units last year, and under this huge market, everything is possible.
The people evaluate the car
Since it first became the world's largest auto market in 2009, China has never let that laurel go. When the new energy era was brought, China became the world's largest new energy vehicle market for 7 consecutive years. This absolute volume of suppression is transforming China's auto industry from the past "big but not strong" to leading industrial chain innovation, and a number of new energy automobile enterprises and local battery giants have emerged. This is a victory for the market, but also a victory for strategy. I believe that in 2022, we will witness more of the rapid development of China's automotive industry.