Recently, a friend suddenly asked me about the zero run brand and asked how about this brand? The quality of its models is not passable, is it worth buying?
Embarrassingly, I was still speechless at the time, and I didn't know where to start. In fact, I personally still prefer the zero run brand, especially the popular zero run T03, which is highly respected by me. But pulling it apart, the zero-run brand is not optimistic in my opinion. Moreover, my friend is considering zero-run C11, and ultimately giving wait-and-see advice.
It is not that the zero-run brand is not good, but in the recent March sales report, the delivery volume of zero-running cars in March exceeded the 10,000 mark (10,059 units delivered in March), ranking among the first echelon of the "10,000-car club" for the first time.
But why is it that behind the rise in sales, it will give a "jailed" evaluation? Or rather, what is it that cannot be figured out, allowing us to make bad speculations about its future situation?
The brand influence is insufficient, and the main "volume" products are trapped in the low end
Just like my friend, many prospective owners of new energy vehicles may be familiar with new car-making forces such as "Wei Xiaoli", but they are relatively unfamiliar with zero running, presumably, this is the lack of brand influence. So why?
If you only look at the delivery data in March, the delivery volume in March of Zero Run increased by 193% month-on-month, which is not inferior to Xiaopeng, Nezha and Ideal in the front, and even better than Weilai's 9985 vehicles. However, in the eyes of most media agencies, the excellent results of zero running are indeed a bit mixed with "moisture".
According to the data disclosed by Zero Run, in 2020, Zero Run T03 delivered a total of 10,266 vehicles, crossing the 10,000 mark; in 2021, Zero Run T03 delivered 38,463 vehicles, accounting for about 90% of the total sales of Zero Run, which is its absolute sales force. This is not difficult to understand, that is to say, most of the current sales of zero-run cars are contributed by zero-run T03.
Obviously, for the zero-run T03, compared with its zero-run S01 and zero-run C11 is successful, this micro pure electric car that shoulders the mission of "walking volume", whether from the price or in the configuration, has shown zero-run full sincerity, and indeed alleviated the passive situation of the zero-run car to a certain extent.
However, Chengye Xiao He also lost Xiao He, because the positioning of the zero-run T03 mini car is like a "double-edged sword", while saving zero-run, but let the zero-run car is now buckled on the "low-end" label, it seems that its competitors are in the mini car market has made great achievements in Chery, Euler, Wuling Hongguang and other traditional new energy vehicle brands. The A0-level new energy market over there is already a red sea.
So that the current zero-run C11, although it has a good cost performance, but it is still not recognized by the market. Of course, there are other reasons, such as delivery disputes, product quality complaints, etc., which have also indirectly led to the collapse of the reputation of zero-run cars. Perhaps, some people say that the upcoming zero-run C01 is highly expected, but combined with the dismal market performance of today's zero-run C11, is it really an unknown?
In the past three consecutive years, whether it is "circle money" to seek listing
However, what is more noteworthy is the hidden danger of zero-running cars in the capital chain. According to the data of Tianyancha App, as of a few days ago, the amount of financing publicly disclosed by Zero-Run Cars has reached 12.06 billion yuan, but the losses of Zero-Run Cars in the past three years seem to be gradually expanding.
This point is also confirmed in the "China Economic Network", in the "Zero-run Car Sprint IPO, can the glory of the pin crown T03 continue?" In the article, according to the statistics of Zhongxin Jingwei, the revenue of zero-running cars from 2019 to 2021 was 117 million yuan, 631.37 million yuan and 3.132 billion yuan, and the adjusted net losses were 810 million yuan, 935 million yuan and 2.629 billion yuan, respectively, so the total loss in the past three years was 4.374 billion yuan. According to the zero-run car, in 2022, the loss trend will continue.
In addition, it is worth noting that for the new car-making forces, losses are not new, only stable cash flow, is the long-term. According to the prospectus data, as of December 31, 2021, the total current assets of Zero Run Auto were about 8.955 billion yuan, and the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year were about 4.338 billion yuan. In contrast, the cash reserves of Xiaopeng Automobile, NIO Automobile and Ideal Automobile at the end of 2021 were 43.544 billion yuan, 55.4 billion yuan and 50.160 billion yuan respectively. Therefore, for zero-run cars without stable cash flow, there is not much advantage over other first-tier car-making forces.
Another noteworthy data is that for every car sold by the company in 2021, the average loss is about 65,000 yuan, compared with the ideal car, the ideal car has accumulated a net loss of 4.444 billion yuan in the past three years, and the rough calculation is a loss of 35,800 yuan per car sold. It seems that it is possible to conclude that a zero-run car is sold to lose one, and the price is not as expensive as the ideal, and the loss of each car is more than the ideal.
Therefore, zero-running cars urgently need to continue their lives through IPOs, and the recent zero-running cars are also sprinting for the IPO, and if the IPO goes well, the zero-running cars will become the fourth new car-making force to land in the capital market after Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal. Therefore, the success of the listing of the zero-run car will be directly related to whether it can highlight the siege and lead the second echelon.
Of course, behind the beautiful vision, the fact that zero runs is still impossible to turn losses into profits. Of course, some people in the industry pointed out that zero running this time to seek listing is "circle money". So why is the IPO of Zero Run Car at that time called "circle money"?
In fact, for the new car-making forces, it is understandable to seek IPO to gain the favor of market capital. According to Zero Run in the prospectus, 40% of the IPO will be used to expand the smart electric vehicle portfolio, expand the team and intelligent technology development including automatic driving systems and intelligent cockpit systems, and improve electrification technologies; about 25% will be used to increase production capacity; about 25% will be used to expand business and enhance brand awareness.
However, what is intriguing is that we also found from its published prospectus that the zero-run car, which has always been known for its "global self-development", is not on the same order of magnitude as other new car-making forces in research and development.
According to the data, from 2019 to 2021, the research and development expenses of zero-run vehicles will be 358 million yuan, 319 million yuan and 740 million yuan, respectively, totaling 1.417 billion yuan. In contrast, Weilai's automobile research and development expenses in the first three quarters of 2021 were 2.073 billion yuan. Xiaopeng Automobile has invested 2.663 billion yuan in research and development. And Tesla is even more so, in 2021 alone, Tesla's research and development expenditure exceeded $2.5 billion, accounting for 5% of revenue.
Obviously, for the new car-making forces, R&D investment is a criterion for evaluating their future development potential. The low investment in research and development is one of the main reasons why the industry is mainly questioning zero-run cars. In this way, the previous "autopilot three-year super Tesla" is more like boasting about Haikou. In the actual experience, compared with Tesla, zero-run automatic driving is naturally much inferior. This point, in the previous CHINA Automobile Evaluation CCTR intelligent special project, the poor results of zero run C11 may be supported.
Auto Network Review: Can Seeking Listing Really Change Zero Run?
At present, zero-run cars are seeking to list on Hong Kong stocks, and combined with its losses, many people believe that the main purpose of its listing is to "circle money". However, whether it is "boasting about Haikou" or self-confidence and optimism, what we really want to see is a different zero run, a zero run that can lead the new forces of car manufacturing.
Perhaps, for zero-run cars, if you want to win this race in the future, you still need a lot of financial support, and a successful IPO may be an opportunity. But what is more noteworthy is whether zero running has the determination to comprehensively enhance its own strength. Therefore, I will analyze the strategic layout and product positioning in the next issue to see if the zero-running car value is worthy of the favor of this market capital.