Jack Ma returns to China, Ali amplifies the move! Splitting is on the line, how is the valuation of independent businesses

"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" on April 2 (Reporter Chen Mei) Three days after Ma Yun returned to China, it was reported that Alibaba's logistics business department was preparing for the Hong Kong IPO.

Although the rookie responded that night: there is no clear plan and timetable yet. However, Alibaba's "1+6+N" organizational change plan is already on the line.

According to the letter issued by Daniel Zhang, chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, Alibaba will carry out "1+6+N" organizational changes, and one huge Alibaba Group will be split into 6 major business groups and N business companies, so that qualified business groups and companies have the possibility of independent listing.

However, a senior investment banker told the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter that the full staff letter only released structural adjustments, and there is still some time before the split. "At most, Ali listed the specific plans and directions for the split, but it has not yet reached the decision-making and execution stage."

Cainiao IPO, Hong Kong stock or A-share?

As the first sub-business sector to be rumored to be listed, the news of Cainiao's Hong Kong IPO has attracted the attention of many investors and investment bankers.

On the night the news came out, an investor in Beijing who paid attention to the TMT field called out to the reporter of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily": "I don't understand".

"It is clear that you can be listed on A-shares, but you have to choose Hong Kong stocks, why is Cainiao so anxious?" The investor noted. However, Cainiao's subsequent response dispelled investors' doubts.

In the investor's view, compared with JD Logistics, Cainiao is an asset-light model and plays the "logistics technology" card. "At present, ChiNext can be listed on the ChiNext as long as the valuation is large enough and not profitable. What's more, Cainiao's revenue has grown year-on-year, and it is almost not losing money. ”

The investor told the reporter of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" that although Cainiao is a franchise model, it is a logistics service network platform, and the integration of main information and traffic is not different from the general milk tea shop and other brands and management output joining. ”

"Simply put, the former relies on information technology, and the latter relies on traditional marketing. By definition, Cainiao is logistics technology, not logistics in the traditional sense. More importantly, compared with JD Logistics, the latter was listed earlier and was an asset-heavy model, and the A-share policy had not been adjusted at that time, so JD Logistics went to the Hong Kong stock listing. The investor said.

However, Wang Jiyue, a veteran investment banker, believes that there is nothing inappropriate for rookies to list on Hong Kong stocks.

"On the one hand, JD Logistics is also a Hong Kong stock; On the other hand, A-shares have stricter requirements on the standardization of related party transactions, and the shareholding structure may also be questioned. Wang Jiyue said.

Wang Jiyue believes that Ali is an international company, and do not use the market value and liquidity of ordinary companies to consider and think about problems. "Although Hong Kong stocks have been illiquid in the past year, platforms like Alibaba, no matter where they are listed, will have high valuations."

"The recent liquidity problems of Hong Kong stocks are mainly affected by the US interest rate hike; In normal years, Hong Kong stocks are still liquid, especially star companies. ”

The conditions and foundation for splitting are already in place

From the perspective of time, the split plan announced by Ali this week coincides with the time when Jack Ma returns to China. Some people in the industry even said that Ma Yun's return to China was a "variation" played in advance for Ali to "change formations".

But Wang Jiyue believes that the timing of the announcement of the split plan is only Ali's own choice. "Outsiders' opinions are meaningless, so don't speculate too much."

From the perspective of Alibaba's own business, Wang Jiyue said that Alibaba's structural adjustment is not only a goal, but also has a considerable foundation for the splitting plan. "In the case of Cainiao, the scale of the business is already large. Although there is still a dependence on Tmall Taobao, it is gradually decreasing. Not only rookies, but also cloud computing, local life, international business and other sectors are also mature, and the organizational structure adjustment of the split will be born. ”

Judging from the results of the adjustment, Alibaba will evolve from a company with commodity trading platform as the core to a group operating company. "Originally, other businesses served Tmall Taobao, but now they have been raised to the same level. While serving Tmall Taobao, it is also necessary to independently face the market in the future and open up more space. ”

A significant signal is that Daniel Zhang has personally taken charge of Alibaba Cloud's intelligent business. In the future, Alibaba Cloud will further consolidate and strengthen its market position in five aspects, including building its own pre-trained large model.

Another private equity source told the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter that Ali's split is completely different from other Internet giants.

Like Wang Jiyue's view, he also believes that Alibaba's six major business segments, cloud intelligence, Taobao Tmall business, local life, rookie, international digital business, and big cultural entertainment, have matured, and there is almost no need for Ali to invest any more money. "For example, Hema Xiansheng, a local lifestyle business, has achieved profitability; Cainiao's performance in Alibaba's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 (2022Q4) was a year-on-year increase in revenue of 27%, continuing to rank first in the group; Under the leadership of Jiang Fan, the international business sector continued to improve in the third quarter of 2022, with revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year. “

"The split of Ali this time is to find more room for expansion, and the purpose of independent listing is not to raise blood transfusion." The private equity source told reporters that it is to further release the valuation potential of Alibaba's independent business. This has been reflected in the stock price after Ali announced the split plan. ”

The reporter of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" noted that after the announcement of this split plan, Ali's stock price has continued to rise. As of Friday, the U.S. stock market was trading at $102.18, with a market capitalization of $264.1 billion.

As for the shareholders behind Alibaba, the person said that SoftBank basically has no particularly big impact. "The split listing is to go public as a subsidiary of Alibaba, to introduce new investors and incentives at the subsidiary level, Alibaba's shareholders are still original shareholders, will continue to control the spin-off subsidiary company, Ali's market value will also be increased by the spin-off and listing of the holding subsidiary, and the original shareholders will enjoy profits."

According to the latest earnings report, SoftBank still holds more than 20% of Alibaba's shares, followed by Vanguard Group and BlackRock (BlackRock) with 7.61% and 4.18% respectively.