In the past February, the sales of new power car companies have almost "cut their waists", but the delivery volume of the ideal ONE is still more than 8,000 vehicles, once again becoming the monthly sales champion of new force car companies. Ideal ONE has been a great success, single-handedly pushing range extender electric technology into the mainstream, which has made many car companies smell new business opportunities.
Landu FREE, AITO Q&I M5 and the recently unveiled Self-Traveling NV are all aimed at the range extender segment. More subdivided, they all focus on medium- or mid-size SUVs without exception.
While attracting "allies", it also attracts "opponents". On March 1, mocha DHT-PHEV was launched, and the new car was positioned as a medium-sized plug-in hybrid SUV, with a price of 300,000 yuan for its own model ceiling. Weipai CEO Li Ruifeng said at the scene, "Weipai DHT hybrid technology is the world's best new energy technology, which can achieve suspension of Wei Xiaoli. ”
Mocha DHT-PHEV pointed its gun at the range extender model, "Our DHT hybrid technology is much more advanced than the range extension technology. Li Ruifeng told Future Auto Daily that in the future, Weipai will also launch a six-seat flagship SUV similar to the ideal ONE.
The whole press conference was full of "gunpowder", in response to the confusion of Weilai founder Li Bin "does not understand why someone wants to buy a fuel car", Li Ruifeng believes that the new force car companies are "playing with their lives to be good for you (to) cover up the lack of technology".
Weipai CEO Li Ruifeng Source: Weipai
At a time when the anxiety of pure electric vehicle endurance is still widespread, hybrid and plug-in hybrid models have indeed better met the needs of consumers and are a shortcut to realize the transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.
However, there are also many doubts in the industry about interpolation and mixing technologies such as range extenders.
Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan once criticized that the ultimate goal of developing electric vehicles is to reduce carbon emissions, if you also have to burn fossil fuels to generate electricity, it is not necessary, and the range increase (technology) is the worst solution.
On the one hand, car companies are launching plug-in hybrid models one after another, and on the other hand, the technical route is controversial, how big is the market for extended range models? How much more advanced PHEV technology can be laid?
Traditional car companies push "plug-in", ideal danger?
"In 2021, the new energy vehicle market has achieved very large compound growth, and the PHEV market can reach a million-level scale in 2022." Li Ruifeng told Future Auto Daily that the industry predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 60% of the overall market in 2035, of which PHEV models will occupy 50%-60% of the new energy market.
The PHEV market is indeed picking up. Taking BYD as an example, in 2021, its DM-i hybrid series sold a total of 272,000 new cars, and in 2022, BYD's DM-i model sales reached 46,000 units in January, an increase of 760.6% year-on-year.
Seeing that BYD enjoys exclusive dividends, other traditional car companies can't sit still, Chery Kunpeng DHT and Changan Blue Whale iDD are trying to lay a foothold in the plug-in market.
In fact, PHEV models have a long history, and when the joint venture giants transform to electrification, in order to take into account cost and fuel economy, most of them will prefer plug-in hybrid technology. Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other car companies have delivered a number of PHEV models to the Chinese market.
According to the proportion of motor drive power to the power of the whole vehicle, there are many types of plug-in hybrid models. Betting on the ideal ONE of range-extended hybrid technology, more specifically the "series plug-in hybrid" model.
The engine of this model does not directly drive the car, the engine drives the generator and then drives the car, the energy transmission chain under this structure is long, the efficiency is not high, and the direct consequence is that the vehicle fuel consumption is higher.
Mocha DHT-PHEV Source: Weipai
According to official data, mocha DHT-PHEV in the case of power loss, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers is only 5.55L, and the comprehensive cruising range can exceed 1000 kilometers.
In contrast, the ideal ONE using the range extender technology route has a fuel consumption of 8.8 liters per 100 kilometers at the lowest charge.
Mocha DHT-PHEV adopts hybrid plug-in hybrid hybrid technology, which is a DEDICATED Hybrid Transmission hybrid system consisting of an engine, a two-speed transmission, two motors, a clutch and a power battery.
DhT system has the characteristics of full speed domain high efficiency, when the engine direct drive to add a two-stage transmission, directly broaden the engine working range, allowing the vehicle to achieve EV driving, hybrid drive, series drive and other working modes. Compared with the tandem structure that relies only on the engine as a range extender, the mocha DHT-PHEV's multiple drive methods make its fuel consumption significantly lower than that of the extender structure.
On the plug-in hybrid route, Weipai DHT tries to balance power performance with low energy consumption, but it also leads to increased costs. Compared with Weipai DHT, BYD's DM-i hybrid system is based on pure electric drive, using a series parallel structure, consisting of dual motors, dual electronic controls, direct drive clutches, etc. Different from the Great Wall using two-speed transmissions, BYD DM-i uses a single-speed transmission, and the cost will be lower.
Because DM-i relies on pure electric drive, the fuel consumption is not high, taking BYD Qin PLUS DM-i as an example, its fuel consumption of 100 kilometers in the lowest charged state is only 3.8L.
In the view of Zhu Yulong, a practitioner in the automotive electronics industry, the traditional car companies develop hybrid engines, which have more advantages than purchasing small displacement power generation engines, and the various working modes of pure electricity, hybrid connection and series connection are more effective than simple series modes. "Plug-in hybrid models can easily intersect with the segmentation of extended-range models, and if car companies such as the Great Wall fill the plug-in (market), the market for extended-range models may also be diverted."
How far can the plug-in go?
Ping An Securities released a research report that it expects domestic plug-in hybrid model sales to reach more than 1 million units in 2022. However, plug-in hybrid models are hot, provided that the pure electric vehicle market is not mature, but the latter's shortcomings can be made up by time.
With the continuous iteration of battery technology, the endurance level of pure electric vehicles will be rapidly improved. For example, the NIO ET7 equipped with a 150kWh solid-state battery has a NEDC range of more than 1,000 kilometers, and gac AION LX PLUS is equipped with a silicon anode battery, and its NEDC mileage has also reached 1,000 kilometers.
On the other hand, it is also true that the cost of pure electric vehicles is constantly falling. Data released by consultancy Oliver Wyman shows that the total cost of production of a zero-emission compact car will fall by more than 20% in 2030.
Anxin Securities also released a research report that with the continuous decline in the cost of pure electric vehicles, the introduction of 600-kilometer endurance models and the gradual solution of charging anxiety, pure electric vehicles of 100,000-200,000 yuan will accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles.
Ideal ONE Source: Ideal Official Website
"Range-extender hybrids are a flash in the pan, and in two years the technology will disappear." Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Innovation Center of North China University of Technology, said that the business model of range extender hybrid is based on the fact that batteries are very expensive.
"Once the cost of batteries falls, one more engine system will become more complex and lead to increased costs." Ping An Securities also analyzed that the range extender is not the mainstream technology for future development, with the decline in battery costs and the improvement of infrastructure construction, the range extender car compared to pure electric vehicles and cost advantages or will no longer exist, the industry growth space is limited.
In Zhang Xiang's view, plug-in hybrid technology will not go too far, with the subsidy completely declining, plug-in hybrid models and ordinary hybrid models have no (price) advantage, "the range increase will be the earliest to withdraw from the market, followed by plug-in hybrids, they will be replaced by ordinary hybrid technology." ”
The policy direction also revealed some signals, Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Municipal Implementation Measures to Encourage the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles", according to the plan, from January 1, 2023, consumers buy plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles, Shanghai will no longer issue new energy special license quotas.
After Beijing, Shanghai became another city to abolish the preferential license for plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Under the safety of the danger, the ideal car that made a fortune by extending the range is increasing its efforts to develop pure electric technology. In February 2021, Ideal announced the establishment of a R&D center in Shanghai, focusing on high-voltage platforms and ultra-fast charging technologies. According to the plan, by 2023, Ideal will launch two high-voltage ultra-fast charging pure models. As a special product of the transition period, plug-in hybrid models will complete the transition mission for the foreseeable future.
The author | Qin Zhangyong
Edit the | Li Huanhuan