Behind the release of the three children: 11% of the single stick rate after 10 years, or the emergence of 12 million rural leftover men?
In some remote mountainous areas of China, the concept of "son preference" was still retained in the past, and the gender ratio was also due to the problem of backward concepts, resulting in an imbalance in the sex ratio, a series of chain reactions, and the problem of marriage and love has also become a social problem worried by many young men.
Combined with the results of the census, some experts have analyzed that after 10 years, there will be about ten million more men than women on the mainland, and the singleton rate of adult men (that is, over 18 years old) will reach 11%, and the gap between economically developed areas will be relatively small.
In rural areas where the economy is backward and the concept is relatively old, 12 million young men of school age will have difficulties in marriage and become a group of "leftover men". On May 31, 2021, after the two-child policy in the mainland, it gained very little, so it announced the termination of the two-child policy and approved that couples of appropriate age can have a third child.
This measure can be said to have completely overturned the "family planning" policy that was once strictly enforced, and It is a measure that China is seeking to reverse the aging situation.
Ideally, the "three-child policy" can undoubtedly effectively improve the population structure of the mainland. However, under the current situation, the post-90s generation has gradually become the main force of the mainland's labor resources, and they are most seriously affected by the one-child policy.
An only child, often have to take care of at least two elderly people, and after the two only children get married, there is even a situation of taking care of eight elderly people, for which countless only children have expressed their views on social networks, wage income, fertility costs, care for the elderly and other countless pressures, they have to choose to "lie flat" in terms of fertility.
Since the founding of New China, there has been a sharp surge in the growth of the mainland's newborn population. In response to the world's birth plan, the mainland began to implement the "one-child policy" in the 1980s, ideally to ease the excessive growth rate of the newborn population and support the fledgling Chinese economy.
As one of the basic national policies, it has given full play to this role. The slow growth of the new population fully prepared for the mainland's economic take-off and, to a certain extent, improved the employment problem of the labor force at that time. At the same time, the slowdown of the country's newborn population has also given the country a chance to breathe in education and begin to accumulate high-quality cultural talents.
The family planning policy, whether economically, politically or educationally, greatly alleviated the problem of unbalanced distribution of resources on the mainland at that time.
However, everything has two sides, and there are advantages and disadvantages. The growth rate of the newborn population is slow, the sex ratio of the population is gradually out of balance, and in the face of the gradual deepening of the aging problem, the government has made policy adjustments to end the one-child policy and open the two-child policy in 2016.
The opening up of the two-child policy has not been very obvious, and by 2020, China's birth rate will be 1.3, far below the ideal birth rate, and even continue to decline. To this end, mainland experts have put forward the "three-child policy" to encourage young couples to have children and increase the total fertility rate on the mainland.
It is just that among the talents who have received higher education today, the willingness to have children is not as high as ideal, and the Chinese dividend is gradually shrinking.
In recent censuses, in addition to the reduction of the total fertility rate, the sex ratio has also become a major problem, and if the "three-child policy" is implemented, whether the ideal state can be achieved is also a dynamic that the world is concerned about.
In fact, many developed countries in the world have already entered the process of negative population growth. However, what is slightly different from other countries is the imbalance in the sex ratio of the mainland population, with men far more than 30 million more than women.
Some experts have shown that since the implementation of the family planning policy, China has long had a gender imbalance, and with the differentiation of the gap between the rich and the poor, the "single stick problem" has become more and more serious.
Ten years from now, in China, without policy intervention, the single stick rate is likely to reach 11 percent, and in the more economically backward rural areas, there will be nearly 12 million "male single sticks".
According to the current public data, there are 17.52 million more marriageable-age men than women aged 20 to 40 on the mainland, with a sex ratio of 108.9:100.
According to the international average standard, the sex ratio between 103 and 107:100 belongs to the reasonable range, and although the mainland is closer to the international average standard than the last century, it still belongs to the state of exceeding the reasonable standard.
The reason for this is that we must first see that the traditional thinking of the older generation, the old idea of "son preference", has greatly affected the problem of gender ratio. In the past era, men often had more physical abilities than women and had indelible contributions in agricultural development, which also led to the formation and wide dissemination of traditional ideas.
Nowadays, we preach "equality between men and women", and in areas where economic conditions are relatively backward, the old ideas have not yet been erased, so that the phenomenon of more men and fewer women still exists in some rural areas.
The imbalance between men and women is a problem that has always existed in the mainland, and under the opening up of the "three-child policy", the non-disclosure of children's gender, equality ideology and other measures, the proportion gap may be gradually narrowed in the future.
There is another reason to start from the mainland youth group. The group of young people receiving higher education has long ceased to be the traditional concept of "having many children and many blessings" in the past, and the group of people who do not marry and do not have children has gradually grown on the mainland.
Women are arguably industry leaders in many fields, with more choices, broader horizons, and farther paths... More young women are changing their destiny, improving their lives, and moving forward on their ideals.
In the relatively backward rural areas, no one often wants to give up their dreams, come to the countryside to settle down and work, and become a rural housewife.
Young men in the countryside will go to the big cities to work hard, while the rest will become "leftover men". They can't afford to get married today, they can't change their status quo.
Therefore, in areas with backward thinking, not only is the ratio of men and women out of balance, there are more men and fewer women, and there are no conditions to attract women, and it is also expected that a large number of "leftover men" will appear in the countryside after ten years.
Can the "three-child policy" play its part? We still have to look at the problem through a long-term perspective and wait and see what happens.
