Editor's note: Time flies, the years are like shuttles, and in the blink of an eye, 2021 has come to an end. If the "black swan" with the greatest impact on the global auto market in 2020 is the new crown pneumonia epidemic, then in addition to the epidemic in 2021, it will be coupled with chip shortages and rising raw material prices, which will slow down the momentum of the recovery of the global auto market and make the automotive industry full of anxiety. However, the acceleration of the transformation of the "new four modernizations" has also brought opportunities and hopes for automobile manufacturers to break through.
In 2021, China's auto production and sales, the world's largest new car market, achieved year-on-year growth, ending a three-year decline since 2018. In the international market, the contradiction between the supply side and the demand side of the automobile is extremely prominent. Due to the shortage of chip supply seriously affecting the recovery of the market, car sales in the United States and Japan fell slightly, India, Brazil and other countries rose slightly, and major European countries were basically the same as last year, only Germany fell sharply. Overall, the "BRICS" auto market has performed better, especially china has become the backbone of the recovery of the global auto market. Although factors such as the epidemic and lack of core in 2022 will still plague the global auto industry, the global auto market is expected to continue to pick up as the contradiction between supply and demand gradually eases.
United States
The price of new cars soared, and Toyota won the sales title for the first time
According to data from the GoodCar BadCar car sales tracking website in the United States, in 2021, new passenger car sales in the United States were 14.98 million units, down 1.9% year-on-year. Usually, December is the peak sales season of the year in the US auto market, but due to the shortage of chips, the inventory of new cars in the United States is seriously insufficient, and the sales of most car companies have fallen sharply in the month.
If there is one word to sum up the U.S. car market in 2021, it is "in short supply." U.S. consumer demand for cars remains high, but car companies have had to cut production due to chip shortages and supply chain disruptions. In this way, the transaction price of new cars is constantly pushed up. Statistics from american automotive magazine Kelly Blue Book show that in December 2021, the average transaction price of new cars in the United States reached a record $47,077 due to strong luxury car sales, an increase of 14% year-on-year ($5,742) and a month-on-month increase of 1.7% ($808).
In this regard, Kayla Reynolds, an analyst at Cox Automotive Consulting, said: "December is usually the best month for luxury car sales, and 2021 also follows this trend, which also makes the overall average transaction price of new cars reach a new high." In fact, according to the Kelly Blue Book, from July to December 2021, the average price of new cars paid by U.S. consumers each month was higher than the manufacturer's suggested retail price. At present, the inventory level of new cars in the United States is still tight, and dealers are expected to continue to maintain prices above the manufacturer's suggested retail price.
In addition to soaring prices, the biggest news in the U.S. auto market in 2021 is that General Motors lost the title of sales champion in the U.S. market and replaced it with Toyota. This is the first time since 1931 that GM has failed to become the top seller in the U.S. market, and it is also the first time that a non-local car company has topped the list in the United States, and it is also the first time that Toyota has won this position. According to official figures released by the two companies, Toyota's light vehicle sales in the United States in 2021 were 2.332 million units, up 10.4% year-on-year; GM was down 13.1% year-on-year to 2.203 million units.
The reason for this is mainly because Toyota's supply chain management is relatively good, while GM has been hit harder by the lack of cores, the factory has cut production sharply, and the previously best-selling electric vehicle Chevrolet Bolt has been recalled and suspended due to the hidden danger of battery fire, which has affected sales to a certain extent. However, Steve Carlisle, president of GM North America, said that with the recovery of the U.S. economy and the gradual improvement of chip supply, GM's sales and market share in the United States will increase in 2022.
Brazil
Inflation hit a six-year high Production recovered faster than consumption
As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil's auto industry has been in the spotlight. Statistics from the Brazilian Federation of Car Dealers (Fenabrave) show that new car sales in the country will be 2.1196 million units in 2021, an increase of 3% year-on-year, but far below the agency's forecast of 16% year-on-year growth at the beginning of 2021. Specifically, sales growth was mainly driven by trucks and light commercial vehicles, while passenger car sales fell slightly. Sales volumes grew positively, in part because of a low base in the previous year. Affected by the epidemic, new car sales in Brazil plummeted by 26.16% in 2020, the first decline since 2016.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, many automobile factories have cut or stopped production, high raw material prices, and the shortage of chips and electronic products have caused a lot of blows to the automobile industry. Fuel, energy and food prices are also rising, and data released by Brazil's National Statistical Office shows that Brazil's inflation rate in 2021 is 10.06%, the highest since 2015. Inflation coupled with the decline in income caused by the epidemic has directly impacted the purchasing power of the people, and the consumption of bulk products such as automobiles has been squeezed.
Relatively speaking, the production situation is better. At present, Brazil's automobile manufacturing industry has gradually shaken off the impact of the epidemic and shown a recovery trend. According to the Brazilian Automobile Manufacturers Association (Anfavea), Brazilian automobile production in 2021 was 2.248 million units, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. Production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles increased by 8.7% y/y to 2.07 million units, truck production was 159,000 units, up 74.6% y/y, and passenger car production was 19,000 units, up 2.6% year-on-year. In addition, Brazil's automobile exports showed a good trend. In 2021, Brazil's automobile exports were 376,300 units, an increase of 16% year-on-year.
Luis Moras, president of Anfavea, said that since 2021, the Brazilian automobile manufacturing sector has gradually shaken off the impact of the epidemic and comprehensively promoted the resumption of work and production, which has promoted the recovery of Brazil's automobile manufacturing industry. The country's auto export market is also gradually recovering, with Brazilian car production expected to reach 2.46 million units in 2022, an increase of 9.4%.
Brazil is the largest and most populous country in Latin America, ranking first in economic strength in South America and has great potential in the automobile market. But Brazil's economic growth has been sluggish in recent years, and the country's car market has been languishing. For the Brazilian market, some car companies choose to shrink or retreat, and some choose to go further. In early 2021, Ford announced the closure of all plants in Brazil and the cessation of local production of cars. In August of the same year, Great Wall Motors signed an agreement with Mercedes-Benz to acquire the latter's Plant in Iracemapolis, Brazil.
Europe
Lack of core affects recovery The overall market is weak
Due to the shortage of chip supply and the repeated epidemics, new car sales in Germany, Europe's largest car market, fell to their lowest level since 1990 in 2021. Statistics from the German Motor Vehicle Agency (KBA) show that new car sales in Germany in 2021 will be 2.62 million units, down another 10% from an already bad 2020. Among them, the monthly sales in December fell by 27% year-on-year, and the sales volume fell for six consecutive months. "The performance of the German car market in 2021 surprised everyone." Rhinehard Hilpel, president of the German Automobile Importers Association (VDIK), said.
Insufficient chip supply is the most important reason for the decline in sales, and major car companies originally hoped that the lack of cores would gradually be alleviated in 2022, but many European car companies have realized that at least in the first half of this year, chip supply may continue to be tight. The Mercedes-Benz brand recently said that in 2022 it will continue to retain a dedicated working group to solve any supply bottlenecks that may affect production. It is also due to the lack of cores that the global sales of the Mercedes-Benz brand in 2021 fell by 5% year-on-year to 2.055 million units, and the BMW brand, which sold 2.21 million cars in the same period, took the global luxury car sales championship.
The decline in german car sales is in line with the performance of weak markets across Europe. In addition, new car sales in the UK in 2021 will be about 1.65 million units, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, but it will fall by nearly 30% compared with 2019 before the epidemic. "For the UK auto industry, 2021 is another disappointing year, the epidemic continues to cast a shadow on the recovery of the market, and car companies are still struggling to cope with a large number of challenges. What's more, the global semiconductor shortage has seriously affected the supply of automobiles. Mike Hoth, chief executive of the British Automobile Manufacturers Association (SMMT), said.
The same is true of France, Italy and Spain. New car sales in France in 2021 were 1.66 million units, up 0.5% year-on-year, but down 25.5% from 2019 and continuing to maintain a historical low; Italy increased by 5.5% to 1.457 million units, but still down 23% compared with 2019; Spain was 860,000 units, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, but down 32% from 2019. Dataforce Market Research predicts that Italian sales will reach 1.55 million units in 2022, up 6% from 2021, but still 20% lower than in 2019.
Like the Chinese market, electric vehicles are a highlight of the European car market. Among them, in 2021, German electric vehicle sales rose by 83% year-on-year, exceeding 350,000 units; the market share of electric vehicles in the United Kingdom exceeded 10% for the first time; and the sales of electric vehicles in Italy doubled.
India
The car market grew slightly, and the haze of inflation shrouded him
In 2021, the Indian auto market will be greatly affected by the epidemic and high inflation. In fact, India has been under inflationary pressure since the second half of 2020. As inflation continues to worsen, India recently halted trading in seven agricultural futures. Residents' consumer confidence has been greatly hit by rising prices, coupled with the rise in the price of raw materials such as steel, car companies have raised their prices in India, which has caused a certain impact on the consumer side. According to the Federation of Indian Automobile Dealers (FADA), passenger car sales in India in December 2021 were 245,000 units, down 11% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales were 58,847 units, up 13.7% year-on-year.
"December is usually the peak sales season, and OEMs generally offer higher discounts to clear inventory. This time, though, this was not the case, ending an unsatisfactory 2021 with disappointing sales. Although the previous chip shortage hit the car market, the order volume was large, and the sales of passenger cars in India fell in December. At present, the tension in India's car supply has eased, and dealers have seen some hope for improvement. "As for the commercial vehicle sector, as the government continues to increase spending on infrastructure, especially road infrastructure, coupled with higher freight prices and a low base in the same period last year, the Indian commercial vehicle market 'crossed' with double-digit positive growth in December." ”
In view of the fact that the fiscal year system used by FADA is different from the calendar year, the reporter added up the monthly sales announced by FADA from January to December 2021 one by one, and finally concluded that India's passenger car sales in 2021 will be 2.756 million units. In 2020, which was hit by the epidemic, Passenger Car Sales in India was 2.7176 million units, which means that passenger car sales in India increased by 1.4% year-on-year in 2021.
Looking at the performance of car companies, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Mahengda, Hyundai Motor, Toyota, Honda, Kia Motors and other car companies ranked high in sales. In December 2021, for example, Maruti Suzuki sold 126,000 units, Tata 66,000 units, Mahinda 33,000 units, Hyundai 32,000 units, Toyota 11,000 units, honda and Kia nearly 0.8 million units. Notably, Ford has decided to stop producing cars in India. Senior government officials in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu recently said that a number of foreign car companies have expressed interest in acquiring Ford's factories in the state.
Looking ahead, FADA said that india's third wave of the epidemic is menacing, and many regions have announced restrictions again, and Indian residents may be more cautious about buying a car in the short term as Indian residents are worried about the rise in related medical costs.
Japan
Sales hit a 10-year low The penetration rate of electric vehicles is low
According to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) and the Japan National Federation of Light Vehicle Associations, new car sales in Japan in 2021 were 4.448 million units, down 3.3% year-on-year and the lowest level in 10 years since the 2011 earthquake in Japan. Among them, the sales of new vehicles with registered ordinary car license plates were 2.796 million units, down 2.9% year-on-year; the sales of mini vehicles were 1.652 million units, down 3.8% year-on-year.
In fact, due to the increased downward pressure on the economy and the impact of the epidemic, since 2018, Japan's overall new car sales have shown a downward trend, and the sales volume from 2018 to 2021 are: 5.27 million units, 5.195 million units, 4.6 million units, and 4.448 million units.
The decline in new car sales in Japan in 2021 is partly caused by the shortage of chips and the stagnation of parts procurement caused by the rebound of the epidemic in Southeast Asia. From the perspective of monthly sales, from January to June 2021, the monthly sales of new cars in Japan have been increasing year-on-year, while July and December are all year-on-year declines, especially in September and October, with a decline of more than 30%. This is mainly because the epidemic in Southeast Asia was particularly serious in the third quarter, and lockdown measures were adopted in some areas, which led to a temporary stagnation in the procurement of parts by Japanese car companies, and local auto factories were also closed for a while.
Although the decline in Japanese car sales narrowed in November and December 2021, it remains to be seen whether the Japanese auto industry can rebound in 2022 given the rapid spread of the Omilon variant. JADA says it's not just supply chain issues that worry them, but also higher oil prices, which could lead consumers to delay car purchases.
Looking at the performance of the imported car market, the statistics released by the Japan Automobile Import Association (JAIA) a few days ago show that the sales of imported cars of foreign brands in Japan will be close to 260,000 units in 2021, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of luxury passenger cars of foreign brands priced at more than 10 million yen (about 550,000 yuan) were 27,928 units, an increase of 23% year-on-year. In the context of the continued spread of the epidemic, the willingness of wealthy people who cannot travel abroad is high. In addition, Japan's imported electric vehicle sales in 2021 will be 8610 units, up from 3238 in 2020.
Compared to other major automotive markets, the penetration of electric vehicles in Japan is currently very low. However, in 2021, the Japanese government put forward the goal of "by 2035, 100% of new cars sold are electrified vehicles" and passed the Carbon Neutrality Act of 2050, which increased support for electric vehicles, and it is expected that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in Japan will increase in 2022.
China
Production and sales double increased exports rose The new energy vehicle market is eye-catching
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM") show that in 2021, China's automobile production and sales reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year, ending the decline for three consecutive years since 2018.
The data shows that in the first quarter of 2021, due to the low base of the same period last year, the automobile market showed rapid growth; the growth rate in the second quarter fell; the third quarter was most affected by the lack of chip supply, and there was a sharp decline; the fourth quarter recovered significantly, better than expected, ensuring a good development trend of steady growth throughout the year. Caambiz predicts that in 2022, China's auto market will continue to grow, and production and sales may reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5% year-on-year.
Specifically, in 2021, passenger car production and sales reached 21.408 million units and 21.482 million units, up 7.1% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars reached 9.543 million units, with a market share of 44.43%, close to the highest level in history. Zhu Huarong, rotating chairman of the China Automobile Association and chairman of Changan Automobile, said that in the past few years, Chinese brands have made great progress, especially in the rapid advancement of new energy vehicles and intelligent networking. In the future, Chinese brands will need to continue to make breakthroughs in strategy, products and brands.
Relatively speaking, the commercial vehicle market performed poorly, with production and sales of commercial vehicles reaching 4.674 million units and 4.793 million units in 2021, down 10.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively. The China Automobile Association said that this is mainly due to the demand fluctuations caused by the switch of national VI emission regulations for heavy-duty diesel vehicles, and the consumption wait-and-see brought about by the "blue brand light truck" policy expectations, the colder real estate development industry and other factors have also exacerbated the downward pressure on the commercial vehicle market.
The new energy vehicle market has always been one of the highlights of China's auto market, with production and sales of 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units in 2021, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.4%. Among them, the market share in December 2021 is close to 20%. At the same time, new energy vehicles are also an important driving force for China's automobile exports. In 2021, China's automobile export volume was 2.015 million units, an increase of 1 times year-on-year, of which 310,000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 3 times. In this regard, Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that in 2021, China's automobile exports exceeded 2 million for the first time, breaking the situation that has been hovering around 1 million for many years, and the global development of China's automobiles has entered a new stage.
Text: Zhang Dongmei Editor: Wan Ying Layout: Wang Kun