Presentations | Ding Yan
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On May 16, an in-depth discussion in the industry was held at the 2024 China Automotive Industry Supply Chain and New Energy Vehicle International Cooperation Conference, focusing on hot topics such as the new ecological construction of the automotive supply chain, the green transformation of the industrial chain, the international cooperation of new energy vehicles, and the evolution and evolution of the automobile export model.
In the keynote speech in the morning, Ding Yan, senior economist of the Department of Informatization and Industrial Development of the State Information Center, delivered a speech on the development of China's new energy vehicle market at home and abroad.
Ding Yan, Senior Economist of the Ministry of Informatization and Industrial Development of the State Information Center
The following is a transcript of the speech:
Distinguished leaders and guests, good morning!
It is a great honor to be invited to participate in today's event, and the theme I would like to share with you today is "Analysis of the Development of China's New Energy Vehicle Market at Home and Abroad". The overall content is divided into three parts:
The first part is an overview of the global new energy market.
Through this set of data, it can be seen that the total amount of new energy in the world is growing continuously and rapidly, with the total number exceeding 10 million in 2023, reaching a scale of 12.71 million vehicles, and the penetration rate has exceeded 15%, reaching 15.3%.
From the comparison of the penetration rates of various countries and regions in the world, it can be seen that the penetration rate is very different. The red dots in the picture on the left represent some countries in the European Union, such as Sweden and Norway, where the penetration rate has exceeded 50%, that is, one out of two cars sold is a new energy vehicle. In terms of the comparison of regions, one is that East Asia, where China is located, is the highest, with a penetration rate of more than 25%, followed by Western Europe, mainly some countries in the European Union with a penetration rate of nearly 20%, followed by North America, and now the best development is China, Western Europe, North America.
From the point of view of the difference in technical routes, the new energy between the regions, the route difference is still very large, from the structural point of view, the vast majority of regions are generally pure electric is the mainstay, but compared with China, North America, Europe The three markets with better development, the right market structure is not very stable, the amount is very small, the change is particularly large, the reference significance is relatively small, focusing on the comparison of China, North America and Europe, pure electric is the main body, but it can be seen that the difference in the hybrid route is still relatively large, China is the typical plug-in hybrid with the highest share, plug-in and range extender will be close to 10% in 2023, and it should be said that it will have exceeded 10% by 2024, but it can be seen that the proportion of unplugged hybrid HEVs in North America and Europe is still relatively high, which is the point of difference.
The above is some static data, from the dynamic trend change can also be seen some characteristics, some public opinion information on the network, recently represented by North America and Europe, the entire rhythm of overseas new energy has slowed down, specifically from the national point of view, the penetration rate of Germany and Italy has shown a downward trend, not only the penetration rate, including its volume, that is, its sales volume has also shown a downward trend, this decline is actually caused by policy changes, from Germany's pure electric and plug-in subsidies can be seenIn 2023, the subsidy for plug-in models below 40,000 yuan will be reduced from 4,500 euros to 0 at once, and the pure electric vehicle will also be reduced from the previous 6,000 euros to 4,500 euros.
Under the policy change, look at how the price of the car has changed, it can be seen that Tesla will set off a wave of price reductions around the world in 2023, and the price changes in China in 2023 will also be caused by Tesla's price cuts, and it will be the same in the European market, because Musk wants to benefit consumers, with the reduction of costs, the global price reduction in 2023 will reach an average of about 10%, whether it is the standard version, the long-range version or the performance version, and even the price of some cars will drop by more than 10%, Pure electric is a market led by Tesla, and the price reduction has covered the impact of the subsidy withdrawal, whether it is in Europe or China, the performance is still relatively good, but plug-in in Europe because many of them are oil-to-electric models, so companies can't make so much profit, so a result, the German plug-in penetration rate in 2023 is a phenomenon of halving, and the United States has recently slowed down the pace, in fact, the reason behind it is because of the continued poor profitability of the electric vehicle business, as well as the swing on the technical route, This includes the selection of a technical roadmap for hybridization. Like Ford's financial report, the profitability of fuel vehicles is actually very good, but the profitability of electric vehicles is very poor, but Tesla, although the absolute profitability is still good, but we can also see a downward trend, we can see that Tesla's global stock price is also fluctuating, behind which is the impact of declining profitability.
The slowdown in the West as a whole is more about the needs of elections and political elections, as well as the sustainable development of residents' jobs and enterprises, which is a good signal released by the government to traditional car companies and labor unions, and a compromise to slow down the development stage of electric vehicles. We believe that this is still a phased impact, and in the long run, it will not change such a general trend in the development of electric vehicles.
The second part will share with you the development of new energy vehicles in China.
First of all, a set of data can be seen that China's new energy has exceeded 7.8 million in 2023, an increase of nearly 2 million compared with 2022. In fact, our strong is also the withdrawal of subsidies, and we have achieved this good result in such a background, why can we achieve this good result? We said that although the subsidy will also be withdrawn in 2023, it will also achieve a 7% penetration rate increase in 2023, reaching 35%, and one out of every three cars sold is an electric car, and from the comparison of monthly data, the penetration rate even exceeded 40% in December, and 4 out of 10 cars bought are electric vehicles. Behind the achievements is also the route of electrification, dual strategy, pure electric and plug-in two forms of power, and we can see that not only the growth of pure electric is good, the current momentum of plug-in is very strong, even more than pure electric, because it can alleviate consumers' range anxiety, and at the same time can have a sense of experience of electric cars, in the entire increment of electric vehicles, the contribution of plug-in has exceeded that of pure electric.
Judging from the growth rate, it can also be clearly seen that the red one is plug-in with extended range, and the growth rate also exceeds that of pure electricity, which is very good. The reason behind China's plug-in performance is also because our plug-in and some of the international plug-in are completely different, we are the plug-in of large batteries, represented by BYD and ideal, and the plug-in power in Europe and the United States in the world is more of the oil to electric models of traditional enterprises, so it is very difficult to subvert yourself by selling both oil cars and plug-ins, including how to dislocate the competition in price, how to position, it is very difficult, but we are different, although BYD has also sold oil cars in previous years, But now all the oil trucks have been stopped, and the whole is pushing the tram, and the low electricity ratio of oil means that it is lower than other brands of oil trucks, so its competitiveness is fully reflected. The performance of some new forces is also very good, like ideal. At the same time, traditional enterprises are following up, such as Geely and Chang'an are in the second echelon, and the plug-in route is also following up quickly.
In addition to the power route is a driving factor, the change in price, which is beneficial to consumers, is also a great driving force, because consumers buy cars mainly to see whether the economy is cost-effective, in contrast, from 2023 onwards, with the rapid advancement of new energy, new energy has mastered the entire pricing power, in 2023 it was Tesla initiated, and at the beginning of 2024 it was BYD that initiated it, which is already leading the price and has pricing power. From the perspective of specific brands, leading enterprises lead the price reduction, the left is the independent brand, BYD is the lead in the price reduction, the right is the foreign brand, Tesla leads the price reduction, and has the pricing power.
In recent years, the continuous trend of changes, and even some tram brands have fallen by more than 20%, giving us an understanding, saying that traditional fuel as a century-old industry, in fact, it is very limited in technological progress, including the space for concessions, but the electric vehicle industry is still a new industry after all, it is from the scale of technological progress, with such a development, the future price reduction is expected to be stronger, so in the future we believe that it will be more and more competitive compared with oil vehicles.
And in addition to the actual price reduction, from the perspective of the profitability of the leading enterprises, whether it is Tesla or BYD, it still has the ability to continue to lead the price reduction, so it is now entering a round of elimination, although it is still a preliminary round, and whether you can get the ticket to the final finals or not. So everyone is also trying their best, some are active and some are passive, to get a ticket to participate in the final competition.
Finally, I would like to share with you the development of China's new energy in overseas markets.
This data can see that the global car sales are 88 million units, new energy more than 15%, if excluding China, the overseas car market has a cake of 58 million, Chinese cars can be fully involved, but there may be fuel vehicles in this, what kind of competition pattern is the future? What kind of competition pattern is the cake of new energy? Chinese companies will certainly put themselves in the competition in the future.
Although Europe and the United States have a slowdown in the short term, the short-term purpose is to change the passive to the active, grasp the pricing power, and in the long run, the global electrification strategy will not change, for example, in Europe, the carbon assessment target remains unchanged, so electrification is the best path to carbon reduction. The carbon assessment target previously proposed to ban the sale of fuel vehicles by 2035, although it is not said that the sale of fuel vehicles is not said now, but the engine is maintained and carbon reduction is reduced through biofuels. Electrification is still one of the best ways to reduce carbon emissions, but why is Norway's average carbon emissions per kilometre so low? It is because the strategy of electrification is very thorough, and this is the best path, so we believe that the development trend of electrification will not change from a global perspective.
Due to the overall trend of electrification, there are encouraging policies for new energy in various places, and the subsidy policies in various places are different, such as Europe is still relatively thorough, although the subsidy has a tendency to decline, but the strength is still relatively large. Including Europe, Asia-Pacific, like Thailand's strength, Thailand's policy is equivalent to a copy of China's new energy, its entire policy, our Chinese enterprises participate in the formulation of standards and various policies, so the performance is also very good, this is our opportunity market.
Judging from the vehicles exported by China to the world, the penetration rate of new energy is getting higher and higher, exceeding 25% in 2023, but it is still less than 30%. In terms of the penetration rate of Chinese automobiles in various forms of energy, the penetration rate of electric vehicles is more advantageous, that is, from the perspective of global exports, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in overseas markets is also more than 9%, so the great development of global new energy is an opportunity for China's new energy enterprises. From the perspective of differences in different regions, the highest BEV is in ASEAN and Latin America, but the volume of ASEAN is okay, and Latin America does not need to be considered, because its own volume is relatively small, but we can see that the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in Western Europe has been close to 10% in the past in terms of Chinese car exports, so this is a big opportunity market.
With the introduction of Chinese trams, it will be able to bring down the price of electric vehicles in the international and overseas markets, here is a collection of some models of overseas prices are converted to RMB, we can see that the general are more than 150,000, many places are 300,000 prices, Chinese cars, now trams are even very competitive below 100,000, it should be said that it is competitive for export overseas, of course, there are some trade barriers, recently the Biden administration has also increased tariffs on Chinese trams from 25% to 100%, Of course, we believe that since the volume of exports to the U.S. itself is only 10,000 units, it may be more symbolic than practical.
In general, the difference in domestic selling prices means that it will be very competitive if it is exported overseas in the future. In addition, the price of oil and electricity directly determines the economy of consumer use. We have made a comparison here with the average annual mileage of consumers in various countries, and we can see that in some countries you can save 10,000 yuan a year, which is the average mileage. In addition, from the perspective of convenience, although it is currently a constraint point, considering that there are some countries with very low population density, very good living conditions, and charging conditions at home, and some countries have two cars, one oil car, and the other tram, and the tram runs short distances, it should be said that this is also a great potential.
Finally, to summarize today's theme, China's automobile has entered a new stage of necessity, feasibility, opportunity and strategy. The Tang Dynasty poet Luo Yin has a poem called when the world is the same force, China's new energy vehicles have reached this stage, everything is ready, only the east wind is owed, what is the east wind, is the determination and action of our enterprise. That's all for sharing with you today, thank you.