In 1997, the world's first hybrid power production car Prius came out, this model equipped with Toyota THS hybrid technology, in just five years, more than 40 countries and regions around the world know what is called hybrid. In 2007, the world's first plug-in hybrid power production car BYD F3 DM came out, and now BYD's hybrid technology has become a household name in China.
Before 2021, plug-in hybrid is still a transitional technology that can only survive between traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles; until 2021, plug-in hybrid technology, which has experienced more than a decade of development, has overturned the traditional fuel vehicle and pure electric vehicle markets at the same time with a rapid and unconcealed trend.
In 2021, plug-in hybrids are emerging
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, from January to November 2021, the retail sales volume of passenger cars in the narrow sense in China was 18.041 million units, an increase of 6.1% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.514 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year.
Source: Multiplying Association
Although new energy vehicles account for only 13.2% of China's passenger car retail sales, the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strong differentiation characteristic. China's new energy vehicles not only achieved a replacement effect on the traditional fuel vehicle market in 2021, but also accelerated the pace of China's auto market transformation to new energy.
In China's definition of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles are divided into pure electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). Before 2021, pure electric vehicles are the absolute main sales force in new energy vehicles, and the plug-and-mix models appear to be some uncles who do not love their grandmothers, even for BYD, who has been working in the field of plug-and-mix for many years.
By 2021, the retail volume of plug-in hybrid models will almost closely follow the general growth trend of the development of new energy vehicles. Its cumulative retail sales from January to November this year reached 462,000 units, up 177.2% from 167,000 units in the same period last year.
Of the 462,000 units sold, BYD sold 44.18 percent of the country's plug-in hybrid vehicle market share with a sales record of 196,000 units. In Xiao Lei's view, the reason why BYD can swallow nearly half of the plug-in hybrid vehicle market is that it has contributed to the full layout of DM-i technology in 2021.
Among BYD's annual sales in 2021, dm-i models contributed 1/3 of sales. AFTER more than a decade of hard work in the field of plug-in hybrids, BYD finally showed its technical heritage and influence in the new energy vehicle market in 2021.
As the new car-making force that focuses most on the current situation, Ideal Automobile has won 17.98% of the market dividend of the automobile in the transition period of energy change with plug-in hybrid technology (extended range), and its market share in the field of plug-in hybrid is second only to BYD. Saic Motor (Roewe + MG), which is close behind the ideal, has a market share of only 6.23%, which is significantly behind BYD and ideal.
After BYD released the DM-i super hybrid system and caused a strong market reaction, China's independent brands seem to have smelled the fishy smell of the plug-in hybrid field for the first time, and have launched their own plug-in hybrid systems.
During the Shanghai International Auto Show in April, Chery unveiled its plug-in hybrid system, Chery Kunpeng Power. At the same time, the GAC Research Institute also released the "Green Engine" hybrid technology based on Toyota's fourth-generation THS system. In October, Geely released the Thor Intelligence Engine Hi.X Hybrid System.
From a technical point of view, bydir's DM-i super hybrid system with a first-mover advantage and the ideal range extender hybrid use a single-speed transmission scheme. According to the energy consumption data released by car companies, the fuel saving rate of such a design scheme is about 20%, which is slightly insufficient in terms of economy and power.
In terms of power and economy, there are indeed car owners who report that BYD Qin Plus DM-i has some poor power and fuel consumption performance at high speeds. Therefore, latecomers such as Great Wall, Geely and Chery have fully absorbed the experience of their predecessors and adopted a multi-gear design. Although their plug-in hybrid technology solution is more expensive, it can adapt to more car scenarios.
From the market level, BYD and Ideal Automobile do occupy half of the plug-in hybrid vehicle market through the first-mover advantage. However, there is an old saying in China called "there are talented people in the Jiangshan generation, each leading the way for hundreds of years", with BYD, ideal these plug-in hybrid field forerunners, the Great Wall, Geely, Chery and other latecomers directly stand on the shoulders of giants to develop plug-in hybrid technology, they have a latecomer advantage in technology. It can be seen that there will be a round of fierce competition in the future plug-in hybrid vehicle market.
The reason why cars need to be electrified, in addition to the general trend of environmental protection, is also because the internal combustion engine that has undergone hundreds of years of development has encountered a bottleneck that is difficult to break through, so the car urgently needs an energy revolution. Xiao Lei believes that the reason why plug-in hybrid vehicles will emerge in 2021 is because the current policy, technical route and general environment are conducive to the development of plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Policies support the development of plugs and mixed
In October 2020, the Society of Automotive Engineers of China released the "Technology Roadmap 2.0 for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as "Technology Roadmap 2.0"). The technology roadmap 2.0 emphasizes China's technical route of adhering to the development of pure electric drives, and clarifies the development goals of hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. In Xiao Lei's view, this technology roadmap 2.0 is the fuse that ignites the traditional car companies to develop plug-in hybrid technology.
Technology roadmap 2.0 proposes that by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China's total automobile sales will reach about 20%; by 2030, the proportion of new energy vehicles in total sales will increase to 40%; by 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of China's automobile market, accounting for more than 50% of total sales.
Compared with other countries that are often about to completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, the technology roadmap proposed by China is not radical. So the question is, new energy vehicles will account for more than half of China's total car sales in 2035, so what kind of power type of car will there be? The answer given by Technology Roadmap 2.0 is exactly the hybrid.
Compared with the development route of new energy vehicles that is not radical, China's development route of hybrid models is more radical. The technology roadmap points out that in 2025, hybrid new vehicles will account for more than 50% of traditional energy passenger cars; in 2030, hybrid new vehicles will account for more than 75% of the total number of traditional passenger cars; by 2035, hybrid new vehicles will account for 100% of traditional energy vehicles.
This also means that in the next ten years, China will have two parallel technical routes of hybrid and pure electric, and the energy revolution for traditional fuel vehicles will be mainly dominated by hybrid technology. By 2035, China's traditional energy-powered passenger cars will all be converted to hybrid, thus realizing the comprehensive electrification transformation of China's automobile industry.
In Xiao Lei's view, it is precisely because the technology roadmap 2.0 lays a good development prospect for plug-in hybrids and establishes the status of this technical route, which will attract major car companies to develop plug-in hybrid technology.
Electric vehicle short boards promote the development of plug-in hybrids
From a technical point of view, although the traditional fuel vehicle has developed to the end of life, the pure electric vehicle technology at this stage is not perfect. This means that a transitional technical solution is also needed between traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles.
At present, many car companies claim to have developed a power battery with an endurance of more than 1000km, and in theory, the endurance of pure electric vehicles has indeed exceeded that of traditional fuel vehicles. However, so far, the cost of power batteries that have broken through 1000km with "black technology" remains high.
Taking GAC Eian's AION LX Plus as an example, the price difference between the 1000-mile version of the 1000km version and the 80 Zhizun version with a range of 650km is as high as 170,000 yuan, and the difference between the two is enough to buy a top-equipped AION Y with a range of 600km.
In addition, even if the current power battery has made a technological breakthrough in endurance, the winter endurance of pure electric vehicles is still a short board that is difficult to cover up for all new energy vehicles.
The low temperature test results of 6 pure electric vehicles by China Automobile Research Institute show that even the BYD Han EV with the best low temperature endurance performance has a mileage reduction rate of up to 30.9% in the low temperature environment of -7 °C, and the mileage reduction rate of the worst performing Nezha U Pro 500 is as high as 42.4%.
Although Guangzhou, where Xiaolei is located, cannot reach -7 °C all year round, pure electric vehicles as a product that needs to take into account the global car scene, consumer requirements for it are not just -7 °C. Therefore, from the perspective of hardiness, pure electric vehicles still have a lot of room for technological improvement.
In addition to technology, charging piles as the infrastructure of pure electric vehicles, the perfection of the energy replenishment network is also crucial for the development of the latter. During last year's National Day, pure electric vehicle owners suffered from the problem of "queuing up to charge". It can be seen that although car companies and third-party energy supplement companies are actively laying out electric vehicle energy networks, the current energy network is still not perfect enough.
In the case that the traditional fuel vehicle is about to reach the end of its life, but the development of pure electric vehicles is not mature, plug-in hybrid vehicles that can enjoy the policy benefits and driving quality of new energy vehicles and do not need to have endurance anxiety because of energy replenishment problems have become the best choice for consumers at this stage.
The price increase of raw materials has forced car companies to develop plug-ins
From the perspective of consumer car convenience, in the immature stage of the development of pure electric vehicles, consumers are more willing to choose plug-in hybrid models. From the perspective of car companies, their research and development of plug-in hybrid technology is more or less a helpless choice.
With the rapid development of pure electric vehicles, major car companies are pursuing long endurance in order to increase product competitiveness, which directly leads to the shortage of power battery production capacity. As an indispensable part of pure electric vehicles, the power battery has a production capacity sufficient to restrict the development of new energy vehicle companies.
In order to alleviate the problem of insufficient power battery production capacity, Tesla, which has cooperated with several major battery giants, has postponed the mass production plan of its Semi electric truck several times. New energy vehicle giant Tesla is still like this, and the problem of insufficient power battery production capacity can be imagined as a threat to other car companies.
Secondly, the soaring price of raw materials for power batteries in 2021 has also forced car companies to turn to research and development of plug-in hybrid technology with lower dependence on power batteries to a certain extent. The most expensive component of each single battery is the anode material, and cobalt, nickel, and manganese are important components of the anode material of ternary lithium batteries.
Among them, the price of cobalt has risen 1 times since January last year, the current price is as high as 70208 US dollars / ton, and the price of nickel is as high as 20045 US dollars, compared with last January, which is also up 15%. As the world's largest battery producer, China's battery price is 41,060 US dollars / ton, which is more than 5 times higher than last January.
However, in the face of soaring raw material prices, the vast majority of pure electric vehicle companies can not do the same as Tesla to adjust prices at will. They either bear the high battery costs after the price increase, or purchase lithium iron phosphate batteries at the expense of product competitiveness.
The automobile manufacturing industry itself is a heavy asset industry that does not increase revenue and does not increase profits, so that car companies themselves can bear the expensive battery cost after the price increase, and the direct consequence is that the profit margin shrinks sharply, which is obviously not acceptable to most car companies.
Therefore, in order to reduce the cost of batteries, many car companies have chosen to switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower costs but weaker endurance, which is the main reason why lithium iron phosphate batteries have a very high market position in 2021.
With the turn of new energy vehicle companies, the market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is increasing, far beyond the original production capacity layout of the industrial chain. The sudden surge in demand has also triggered a chain reaction, causing lithium iron phosphate battery raw materials to soar with it.
Among them, the price of the domestic precursor ferro-phosphate in 2020 is less than 13,000 yuan / ton, and by October 2021, the price has soared to 26,000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 100%. Even so far, the price of domestic precursor ferro-fetaphosphate has fallen back to about 22,000 yuan / ton, but there is still a trend of price increases.
In this butterfly effect of battery raw materials, the most innocent is BYD, and the most prescient is also BYD. At present, BYD's entire series is equipped with blade batteries, and blade batteries are essentially lithium iron phosphate batteries. The increase in the price of raw materials for ternary lithium batteries has also indirectly led to an increase in the price of raw materials for lithium iron phosphate batteries, which directly led to the fact that BYD's financial performance, which was originally not high, was even worse. It can be said that the city gate is on fire, and the pond fish are damaged.
Why is BYD prescient? Because it has already thought of a response before the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises. BYD has successfully reduced its dependence on power batteries by launching a DM-i super hybrid system that is inexpensive and less dependent on charging piles.
It can be seen from the coverage and sales of BYD's DM-i series models that its hybrid technology route and strategy are successful. It is precisely because of such a successful case that many domestic independent brand car companies have begun to reduce the development constraints of power batteries by launching plug-in hybrid models.
In 2022, plug-in hybrids will also be in full swing
In Xiao Lei's view, by 2022, the unfavorable factors for pure electric vehicles will be further amplified, and plug-in hybrid models will take the opportunity to open fire in China's new energy vehicle market. The plug-in hybrid model of 2022 is like a gluttonous beast, while devouring the traditional fuel vehicle market in the thinning west of the mountain and the development of the blocked pure electric vehicle market.
In terms of policy, in the case of imperfect pure electric vehicle technology and infrastructure, the development of pure electric vehicles still needs to rely on policy support. As subsidies decline year by year, the cost advantages of plug-in hybrid technology, which is not highly dependent on subsidies, will be further highlighted.
In fact, from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, China's pure electric vehicle industry has encountered an embarrassing situation of subsidy decline. Only in November and December last year, Tesla's Model 3 and ModelY have risen in price twice in a row, and Xiaopeng's full range of models also officially announced price increases in January this year, giving the "Pengyou" who are ready to buy Xiaopeng cars a blow.
In the face of the decline of the new energy vehicle country, the price increase of new energy vehicle companies has been unavoidable. Today's new energy vehicle companies have been doubled in the cost of power batteries to make a miserable, they have borne a part of the price of the battery cost for users, obviously it is impossible to return the pot for subsidies.
In terms of battery raw material costs, in terms of the current trend, as the market share of new energy vehicles increases, the upstream industrial chain of power batteries will become more and more tense. Although the new energy vehicle development policy formulated by China is not radical, some regions and car companies in China are particularly radical in the development of new energy vehicles.
Among them, Hainan, as the vanguard of China's development of new energy vehicles, shouted out the slogan of completely banning the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030 as early as 2019, which is 5 years ahead of the technology roadmap 2.0 formulated by the China Society of Automotive Engineers. In addition, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles in BYD's full range of passenger cars in December accounted for only 5.27%
Pure electric vehicles have fallen into a vicious circle in a short period of time because of radical development. In this cycle, the rapid development of pure electric vehicles directly leads to the shortage of battery raw materials, and expensive battery raw materials in turn restrict the development of pure electric vehicles.
In Xiao Lei's view, as long as the battery supply chain production capacity has not been improved, the enthusiasm of car companies for long-lasting pure electric vehicles does not fade, and the price increase of power batteries due to tight production capacity will continue. Expensive power batteries, coupled with the decline in policy subsidies, are obviously not conducive to the development of pure electric vehicles.
To get out of this vicious circle, car companies must get rid of their dependence on power batteries. Therefore, the dependence on power batteries is not high, and at the same time has a driving quality similar to that of pure electric vehicles, and it does not violate the automobile development route formulated by China, plug-in hybrid vehicles are a very good choice.
summary
For Toyota 25 years ago, it was a pioneer in hybrid technology, and developing hybrid technology may be a rather muddy and difficult technical road. For BYD 15 years ago, it didn't know how many engineers' heads had been balded for the first generation of DM technology.
Whether it is Toyota, Honda's main non-plug-in hybrid or BYD's main DM plug-in hybrid, they have laid a good technical foundation for the industry. However, because non-plug-in hybrid is not popular in China's policy, it cannot become the mainstream technology in China's new energy vehicle market.
After 15 years of plug-in hybrid technology, it is no longer some unfathomable black technology. In addition to BYD, traditional car companies such as Great Wall, Changan, Geely, Chery, and SAIC Have laid out plug-in hybrid technology.
In 2022, plug-in hybrid models that are not constrained by long-endurance power batteries and can enjoy the dividends of most pure electric vehicle policies will surely shine. It will simultaneously launch an impact on the traditional fuel vehicle market and the pure electric vehicle market, and launch a fierce competition in China's new energy vehicle market.
Note: The material for this article comes from the Internet