Cui Dongshu: New energy vehicles are expected to become one of the good development opportunities for China to lead the world

China's auto market is currently entering a new stage of development, with passenger cars being relatively strong and commercial vehicles weakening. Since 2016, the trend of the entire commercial vehicle is much stronger than the trend of passenger cars, and commercial vehicles in the first half of 2021 are still relatively strong in performance, but in the second half of the year, passenger cars are gradually rising, and commercial vehicles are gradually adjusting. The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market, this year's trend is relatively stressful, commercial vehicles have seen -5% growth in January to November this year, of which after July basically entered a significant negative growth stage. This phenomenon is related to the high base of the previous period and last year. In July this year, it gradually reached a relatively low state since 2017, forming a huge adjustment period after the implementation of the "National Six Standards".

Under such a trend, this year's new energy vehicles for passenger cars have shown a round of strong growth, and pure electric vehicles in commercial vehicles have shown a gradual downward trend, in 2017, commercial vehicles pure electric accounted for 6%, to this year fell to 3% of the proportion, passenger cars from 1.9% to 9.9% of this year's proportion, passenger cars pure electric vehicle performance is relatively strong, and passenger car plug-in hybrid also showed a strong growth trend, The pattern of the automotive power market presents the good characteristics of the strong growth of passenger cars represented by new energy vehicles.

Under this growth, the entire passenger car market has entered a relatively strong trend stage this year, and the retail sales of the passenger car market have reached a growth rate of 6% from January to November this year, and now reach a scale of 18 million.

On the other hand, the operating performance of car companies currently presents a huge differentiation situation, the main enterprises represented by passenger cars are relatively strong, especially we can see that the performance of Changan, BYD, Chery, Great Wall, Huachen, etc. is relatively strong, and the overall growth pressure of BAIC, Dongfeng, SAIC, and FAW is relatively large, and the performance of second-tier enterprises this year is particularly excellent. In December, it is expected to be a slight negative growth state, and the growth rate of the whole year is expected to grow between 4% and 5%. Overall, the growth of passenger cars has now entered a stage of gradually stabilizing growth, in the case of a large downturn in August and September, the gradual negative growth in October, November and December is in a significant narrowing, and the passenger car market has gradually entered a normal growth cycle.

At present, the passenger car market presents a relatively high-end trend characteristics, this year's model performance of more than 250,000 yuan is extremely excellent, and the performance pressure of models below 80,000 yuan is extremely huge, the traditional passenger car shows a low-end fierce negative growth, high-end strong growth of the good trend characteristics, but also reflects the consumption upgrade of the car market good promotion effect.

Under such growth, the characteristics of structural regional growth are obvious, and luxury cars have encountered certain growth pressure in the fourth quarter of this year, and the impact of shortages in the third to fourth quarters has been affected.

The core driving force of the growth of new energy vehicles is that the withdrawal of subsidy policies has brought about a market-oriented drive and a good role in promoting the industry, and the subsidy for new energy vehicles is 22,500 in 2020, 18,000 in 2021, and 12,600 in 2022. Three years of new energy vehicle subsidies are in the process of rapid adjustment, and after the adjustment, new energy vehicles are now generally characterized by a significant increase in their ability to resist risks.

In the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, we can see the penetration rate of each market segment relatively good performance, which can be seen in October to the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen as the representative of the purchase of the city, plug-in hybrid penetration rate of 8%, pure electric penetration rate of 23%, a total of 31% penetration rate, overall far stronger than the normal industry social level, new energy vehicle penetration rate reached a super growth trend, small and medium-sized cities and counties and townships the market is currently in a relatively balanced state of new energy penetration.

Looking forward to the future, the car market has entered a cycle of sustainable growth, in general, in 2022, China's new energy vehicles will show a strong and good trend, and traditional fuel vehicles will also maintain a stable growth trend, China's future penetration rate is expected to reach 20% of the proportion, in 2025, we believe that 20% of the target, may be achieved three years earlier in 2022, so the 2030 target may be achieved early, traditional cars and new energy vehicles will achieve a relatively strong growth of the good momentum, China's auto market has good expectations, and new energy vehicles have become a good development opportunity for China to lead the world. Thank you.