In 2021, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market has been soaring, and the development has far exceeded the industry's expectations. According to the data released by the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, in 2021, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
In the past year, the market with unlimited potential of new energy vehicles has hidden dragons and crouching tigers, and each has shown its magic. From the perspective of wholesale sales in December, the wholesale sales of byBYD, the self-owned brand all-rounder, reached 93,300 units, defending the domestic new energy vehicle market sales champion; Tesla, although the wholesale sales were slightly inferior, also broke through the 70,000-vehicle mark; the third-ranked SAIC-GM-Wuling wholesale sales reached 60,300 vehicles; the new car-making forces that grew up in public opinion also proved themselves with sales in this year, and the sales of Wei Xiaoli and Nezha Automobile exceeded 10,000 units in December.
In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million units
In 2021, the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strong differentiation characteristic, and new energy vehicles have achieved partial substitution effects on the fuel vehicle market.
According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, China's passenger car retail sales increased by 860,000 units compared with 2020, the traditional fuel vehicles decreased by 1.02 million units, down 6% year-on-year, while new energy vehicles increased by 1.88 million units, an increase of 169% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles contributed 9 percentage points in the year-on-year growth rate of passenger cars.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, pointed out: "The market-oriented choice of users proves the change in consumer demand and accelerates the pace of the transformation of the automobile market to new energy. ”
2022 will be the last year of the implementation of the new energy subsidy policy. According to the requirements of the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Subsidy Plan") jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission, from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
Will the decline of the subsidy policy affect the development speed of the new energy vehicle market? The Federation believes that in 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged, and the subsidy scale will not be locked from the upper limit of the original expected subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout 2022.
With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain, the significant increase in the recognition of the new energy market by domestic consumers, and the stability of policy subsidies, the increase in new energy vehicles in 2022 is still very strong, and it is likely to continue to maintain a super leading position that occupies more than 50% of the global share.
According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by the General Office of the State Council at the end of 2020, by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 20%, according to the prediction of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from the perspective of the current development trend of new energy vehicles, this goal is expected to be completed ahead of schedule.
According to the analysis of the Association, based on the good performance in 2021, the sales target of new energy passenger cars in 2022 will be adjusted from 4.8 million to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate will reach about 22%.
The joint venture brand sighed
The market situation of new energy vehicles is very good, but it has not brought happiness to everyone. While the penetration rate of independent brands continues to increase, the penetration rate of joint venture brands has been stagnant.
Since 2017, the market situation of independent brands has continued to decline, and the market share has repeatedly declined, breaking through the 40% red line for two consecutive years in 2019 and 2020, with only 39.2% and 38.4%. In 2021, the market share of independent brands suddenly soared, reaching 41%, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, and the strong rise of independent brands is closely related to the help of the new energy vehicle market.
In December this year, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 475,000 units, of which the penetration rate of self-owned brand new energy vehicles reached 35.2%. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, there are 14 enterprises with a wholesale volume of more than 10,000 new energy vehicle manufacturers, including BYD 93,338, Tesla China 70,847, SAIC-GM-Wuling 60,372, Great Wall Motor 20,926, Chery Automobile 20,501, Geely Automobile 16,831, Xiaopeng Automobile 16,000, SAIC Passenger Car 14,868, GAC Aian 14,500, Ideal Car 14,087, FAW-Volkswagen 11,213, Weilai Automobile 10,489 vehicles, Changan Automobile has 10,404 vehicles and United Automobile 10,127 vehicles. There are 12 independent brands chaju, and only 2 joint ventures and foreign capital.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu analyzed: "The head enterprises of independent brands have performed very strongly and have achieved significant increases in the new energy market, so traditional car brands such as BYD and SAIC Passenger Vehicles have shown high growth year-on-year. ”
The imbalance between independent brands and joint venture brands in the new energy segment can also be seen from the market penetration rate, the data shows that in December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 39%, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.3%.
The attitude of multinational car companies to meet the trend of new energy is positive, but it is difficult for the ship to turn around, and the transformation of joint venture brands is a greater burden than that of new car-making forces and independent brands, and greater determination to transform is urgently needed. However, some brands have been at the forefront of the journey of joint venture brands to impact the new energy market. According to the data of the Association, in December, among the mainstream joint venture brands, the new energy vehicles of the North and South Volkswagen were wholesaled 19,498 units, accounting for 46% of the mainstream joint venture shares, which shows that Volkswagen's firm electrification transformation strategy has achieved initial results.