*This article is partially quoted from the report: "Market Briefing: Development Trend of New Car-Making Forces in 2022", first published on the Head Leopard Science and Technology Innovation Network, and the full version of the report can be read at the end of the article.
Recently, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has included 88 Chinese stocks in the "pre-delisting" list, and none of the three "Wei Xiaoli" have been spared, which has made the top three "new car-making forces" landing on the US stock market face a test again.
The term "new car-making forces" originated from three non-traditional new energy vehicle companies that landed in the United States - Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng. In recent years, with the influence of new energy subsidies and Internet dividends, "Wei Xiaoli" has become the focus of attention of new energy and even the entire global car company.
However, does this mean that the three companies have absolute dominance in the market? The answer is no.
Just this past April, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market was "upset", according to the official data of various car companies, the previously less well-known zero-run cars, Zero Run won the sales crown with 9,087 deliveries, And Xiaopeng and Nezha delivered 9,002 and 8,813 respectively ranked second and third.
Source: The official websites of various car companies
Weilai delivered 5,074 vehicles, rising one place to fourth, and ideal cars delivered 4,174 vehicles, a serious decline in the ranking, from the third in March to the fifth in April, compared with the previous sales period of more than 10,000 vehicles, the sales of the two car companies were almost waist-deep.
Source: The official websites of various car companies
Although throughout 2022, the sales volume of "Wei Xiaoli" is still increasing year-on-year, it is undeniable that the new energy vehicle market is changing rapidly, and the rising stars of the second echelon such as Nezha and Zero Run have caught up.
The R&D bases of Weilai and Ideal are located in Shanghai, which have been seriously affected by the epidemic, but with the gradual resumption of work and production in Shanghai in April, and the output has climbed, can the old "new car-making forces" win back a game?
In addition, despite the influencing factors of the epidemic, the sales of veteran car companies such as BYD have ushered in a sharp increase in April, staging the "two days of ice and fire", what is the reason behind it? What challenges will the "Wei Xiaoli" face?
In this article, the Head Leopard Research Institute will analyze the challenges and future development trends of the "new car-making forces" at this stage from the perspective of the industry, if you want to quickly read the original research report, you can go to the end of the article to view.
01
Can the head of the new car-making force "Wei Xiaoli" in 2022 maintain the advantage of the first echelon in 2021?
● NIO
Sales problem: As the first echelon of sales of new car-making forces in 2021, its sales in the first quarter of 2022 were slightly inferior, and its sales volume fell from the second in 2021 to the fourth.
Suspension of production due to the epidemic: On April 9, 2022, Weilai Automobile officially announced that since March, many of its depots have stopped production one after another, "in the near future, many users' vehicles will be delayed in delivery, please understand." Not only that, on April 10, Weilai, which had previously announced that it would not increase prices, was forced to announce that it would revise the prices of its products from May 10.
Expectations: Despite unsatisfactory sales, gross margins are relatively high, and deliveries of large orders will not begin until April. At the same time, 2022 is the big year for its products, and three new cars ET7, ET5 and ES7 are about to be delivered.
● Ideal
Network crisis: In 2022, the ideal sales ranked second among the new forces of car manufacturing, although the sales volume maintained its position in 2021, but there was a public relations crisis on the Internet, such as spontaneous combustion in parking lots, poor performance evaluation, etc.
Expectations: Although there are not as many models released by Weilai, the ideal L9's innovative 5-screen interactive mode, equipped with two Qualcomm Snapdragon 8155 chips, and equipped with multiple cameras and 12 millimeter-wave radars, is also a model worth looking forward to.
● Xiaopeng
Although sales declined in February, the overall sales volume in the first quarter was still at the top of the list of new car-making forces, and it is worth looking forward to the G9, its first SUV, equipped with all the smart technologies of Xiaopeng at present.
● Summary
From the first quarter performance, the new car-making force "Wei Xiaoli", the biggest crisis is Weilai, the serious decline in sales in the first quarter, superimposed on the epidemic shutdown and upstream raw material price increase factors, from the April point of view, Weilai performance slightly picked up, the upcoming three models are an important factor in whether Weilai can get out of the decline in the first quarter of 2022. The other two car companies are expected to continue to maintain the head position of the new car-making forces, and the release of new cars will also help them consolidate their position, but they still need to control public relations risks such as "network crisis".
Source: Head Leopard Institute
02
In 2021, can the second echelon of Nezha and zero running in the new car-making forces really change the industry pattern of "Wei Lipeng" in 2022?
● Nezha continues to expand the market, can it stabilize its position?
In the first quarter of 2022, Nezha's sales directly entered the first echelon of new car-making forces, surpassing Weilai to enter the top three, and at the same time, on April 6, 2022, the 2022 Nezha U was released, which is an upgraded version of the Nezha U pro, known as the "ultra-long endurance intelligent pure electric SUV", which combines the advantages of the best qualcomm third-generation Xiaolong Automobile digital cockpit platform, the best L2.5+ intelligent auxiliary driving system (5r5v) and the same level of ultra-long 2770 wheelbase. In terms of strategy, it has set two policies of "entering the city" on the one hand and "going to the sea" on the other, transferring the main markets to the first and second-tier cities, and at the same time completing the export strategy of first going south to Southeast Asia and then going west to Europe.
● Zero run "leading" In April, how about the "gold content" of the second echelon king?
In the first quarter of 2022, zero-run sales ranked fifth among the new car-making forces, due to the price increase of raw materials, the superimposed epidemic problem caused a sharp decline in the delivery volume of many car companies, and zero-run as one of the few car companies with global self-research capabilities, and has its own car-making qualifications and factories, so the production capacity and delivery volume were less affected, and in April, it won the first place in sales of "new car-making forces" with the posture of "dark horse".
Zero-run new car C11 mid-range model collection of all the current zero-run scientific research results, but in January and February 2022, due to the previous T03 positioning in the low-end model, C11 is not paid by mid-range model consumers, sales are not ideal, the current zero-run sales are still based on low-end models such as T03.
In general, whether Nezha can stabilize the position of the first echelon in 2022 mainly depends on the market feedback and epidemic control of Nezha and Niolai's new cars, and the number of models released and the degree of upgrade are better than Nezha at present, but Weilai is currently in the production suspension stage due to the epidemic problem, and the epidemic has a small impact on the delivery of Nezha, so whether Nezha can complete the main factor that truly surpasses the epidemic control situation is this time.
As a sales dark horse in 2021, there is still a gap between brand awareness and the first echelon, but zero running is currently less affected by factors such as the epidemic, and in April it won the crown of the first sales volume due to the favorable impact of low-end model sales, but its gold content is still debatable compared with the "Wei Lipeng" that mainly attacks the high-end market. In the second half of 2022, zero running needs to think more about how to maintain the current market position and move towards the mid-to-high-end market.
To see the full HD version of the chart, please go to the end of the article for it
03
What kind of impact will the new car-making forces encounter in 2022?
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● The price of upstream raw materials has increased, and the problem of the epidemic has been superimposed
In 2022, due to the price increase of power batteries, since January, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models, with prices ranging from 2,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan. Among the models with increased prices, there are more new car-making forces than traditional car companies, superimposed on the problem of the epidemic, and Weilai, the first echelon of the new car-making forces, has announced the suspension of production. The production lines of traditional car companies are more perfect, the business is more extensive, the funds are more sufficient, and the ability to resist risks is stronger, so the impact of this round of impact on the new car-making forces is undoubtedly greater, and how to maintain the existing market share of the new car-making forces is a big problem.
● The impact of traditional car companies
In addition to the impact of the general environment, the impact of traditional car companies on the new forces of car manufacturing is not optimistic, on April 3, 2022, BYD announced the suspension of production of fuel vehicles, more and more traditional car companies joined the new energy vehicle industry, which will bring a huge impact on the new forces of car manufacturing. After all, these traditional car companies have decades or even more than a hundred years of development history, have profound advantages in brand, technology, channels, etc., intelligent and pure electric technology have long been involved, and the market share and sales volume of new car-making forces are bound to be affected.
In the face of a severe environment, how can the new car-making forces complete the delivery task is a big problem, and in the face of the impact of traditional car companies, the first echelon of the current new car-making forces has gradually formed its own brand, technology, channels, etc., and sales are constantly catching up with traditional car companies, so this wave of impact will have a greater impact on the second and third echelons of new car-making forces.
To see the full HD version of the chart, please go to the end of the article for it
04
What is the development trend of the new car-making forces in 2022?
● Weilai and Xiaopeng open up overseas markets, ideally expand production capacity, and complete the market transformation of Nezha
Weilai went to sea norway smoothly and will continue to focus on the European market in 2022. The first ES8s arrived in Norway in August 2021, and SINCE 2022, NIO's ES8 sales have ranked in the top two in the Norwegian 6-seater or 7-seat passenger car market. The company plans to enter the German, Dutch, Swedish and Danish markets in 2022, and INTECH plans to add no less than 100 sales outlets throughout the year in 2022 to rapidly expand THE INFLUENCE OF NIO in second- and third-tier cities.
In the first quarter of 2022, Xiaopeng announced that it will become the first supercharging station to fully cover 333 prefecture-level cities and four municipalities directly under the central government of the mainland, and at the same time, the overseas plan is carried out smoothly, the distribution and direct operation are parallel, and in December 2021, Xiaopeng's first direct-operated experience store in Europe has officially opened in Stockholm. The company adopts an innovative retail model similar to that of direct operation and authorization in China overseas, and has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with the European leading dealer group to enter the overseas market.
The ideal Beijing manufacturing base will be put into operation in 2023, and the construction of the Chongqing manufacturing base is imminent. Ideal Automobile's global flagship plant in Shunyi District has started construction in October 2021, and is scheduled to be put into operation in 2023, with capacity expansion in preparation for subsequent BEV models, and the next phase of production will achieve an annual production capacity of 100,000 pure electric vehicles.
Nezha is to transfer the main market to the first and second-tier cities, and at the same time complete the export strategy of first going south to Southeast Asia and then going west to Europe.
Source: Head Leopard Institute
To see the full HD version of the chart, please go to the end of the article for it
● In 2022, the market share growth rate of new car-making forces will slow down, or even decline
In 2021, the concentration of new car-making forces in the industry is low, with CR3 being 30.5% and CR5 being 43.0%. The market share of Xiaopeng Automobile and Weilai Automobile exceeded 10%, 10.7% and 10.0% respectively, and the market share of ideal automobiles was 9.9%.
The first echelon: Xiaopeng and the ideal market share are expected to continue to grow in 2022, while Weilai faces more problems, and the market share will most likely be maintained in 2021, or even declined.
The second echelon: Nezha and Zero Run in 2021 in the new energy vehicle market share of 2.3% and 1.5%, 2022 Nezha's market share will most likely be rapid growth, and zero run due to the hot sales of T03 models in 2021 led to rapid market share growth, but the sales of C11 models in 2022 are not ideal, so the growth rate will slow down.
The third echelon: 2022 will have a huge impact on the new forces of car manufacturing, so the market share of some waist and tail car companies will be further compressed.
To see the full HD version of the chart, please go to the end of the article for it
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![Wei Xiaoli's wool can't go on forever[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)