Tongwei's high-efficiency component intelligent manufacturing production line
The phased adjustment of the industry can not trap the "real leader", the more challenging it is, the more it can highlight the photovoltaic leader Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438. SH) strength to cross the cycle.
On the evening of April 29, Tongwei disclosed its annual report, and the relevant core financial data further demonstrated the company's performance resilience. According to the annual report data, the company's revenue in 2023 will reach 139.104 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will reach 13.574 billion yuan, the net profit after deducting non-profits will reach 13.613 billion yuan, and the basic earnings per share will be 3.02 yuan. As of the end of 2023, the company's net operating cash flow reached 30.679 billion yuan.
Behind the strong performance resilience is the company's strong technical accumulation, long-term increase in R&D, continuous innovation of innovation-driven technology, and scale expansion advantages, the company's cost advantage and market competitiveness continue to strengthen. Based on this, combined with the company's confidence in future development, Tongwei will pay a total cash dividend of more than 4 billion yuan in 2023.
From the perspective of the photovoltaic industry, although the industry is particularly hot words such as "price war" and "overcapacity", the industry is still at the bottom of the cycle. However, as the most "cheap" green energy in the future, the future development space of the photovoltaic industry is still very broad, and the phased adjustment will not change the long-term positive trend. In this regard, the sense of capital is often the most sensitive, and Tongwei shares, which are currently at the bottom of the cycle, have successively received additional positions from institutions such as the SSE 50 Exchange-traded Open-ended Index Securities Investment Fund and the Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Securities Investment Fund.
The production capacity continues to expand, and the leading position is solid
According to financial data, up to now, Tongwei has formed 450,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity, 95GW of solar cell production capacity and 75GW of module production capacity.
With the advantage of scale, Tongwei's leading position continues to be stable.
According to the annual report, the company's high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity achieved sales of 387,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 50.79%, with a global market share of more than 25%, cell sales of 80.66GW (including self-use), a year-on-year increase of 68.11%, and module sales of 31.11GW, a year-on-year increase of 292.08%.
It is reported that the company's high-purity crystalline silicon output has ranked first in the world for many years, with a global market share of more than 25%, cell shipments have ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years since 2017, and has become the first company in the industry with a cumulative battery shipment of more than 200GW, and in terms of modules, the company's shipments will enter the top five in the world in 2023, with customers covering major domestic state-owned power generation groups and overseas countries.
With two "global firsts" and one "global top five", and with more than 10 years of cyclical experience accumulated in the photovoltaic industry, Tongwei, a photovoltaic giant, has started a new round of production capacity layout, aiming at the next round of industrial upward cycle.
According to the company's capacity plan, it is expected that from 2024 to 2026, the company's high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity will reach 80-1 million tons, solar cell production capacity will reach 130-150GW, and module production capacity will reach 80-100GW.
At the end of last year, the company said that it would invest 28 billion yuan in the Zhunger Economic Development Zone of Zhunger Banner, Ordos City, to build a green substrate integration project. Including an annual output of 500,000 tons of green substrate (industrial silicon), 400,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon projects and supporting facilities. The first phase of the construction of 200,000 tons of green substrate (industrial silicon) and 200,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon projects, and strive to be completed and put into operation by the end of December 2025. The second phase of the construction of 300,000 tons of green substrate (industrial silicon) and 200,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon projects will be launched at the right time according to market conditions.
In terms of cells, Tongwei will gradually complete the transformation of about 38GW of PERC capacity in 2024, and add 16GW and 25GW of TNC cell capacity at the Meishan and Shuangliu bases respectively, based on its first-mover advantage in TOPCon PECVD technology, and is expected to have a TOPCon production capacity of more than 100GW by the end of 2024.
The large-scale investment layout at the bottom of the cycle seems unexpected, but it is actually reasonable.
In the long run, whether it is the acquisition of Hefei Sewei in 2013 or the expansion of Leshan Phase I and Baotou Phase I with a total production capacity of 60,000 tons at the end of 2018, it is a contrarian layout at the bottom of the cycle, the former laid the foundation for "ranking first in the world in cell shipments for 7 consecutive years", and the latter made Tongwei the first company to release production capacity in the new round of photovoltaic boom launched in 2021, helping the company to completely establish its position as the global leader in high-purity crystalline silicon.
In the future, with the disorderly expansion of the industry and the supervision of malicious low-price competition, the entire industrial ecological pattern will be reshaped, backward production capacity will be further eliminated, and the industry will also take advantage of the trend to move towards a stage of high-quality development. At that time, the leading enterprises with scale advantages are expected to usher in a better period of development.
Innovation drives technological innovation, and the cost advantage is highlighted
The company's confidence in expanding against the trend not only comes from its confidence in the future industrial upward cycle, but also from the advantages of technology, cost and integrated layout.
In terms of technology, Tongwei continues to invest in the field of intelligent manufacturing, and improves production efficiency and product quality through the introduction of advanced automation and information technology. At the same time, the company pays attention to technology and product innovation, and constantly introduces new products that meet market demand to maintain technological leadership.
Taking solar cell technology as an example, Tongwei TNC cells have been introduced with the help of new technologies such as high square resistance dense grid and advanced metallization, and the average conversion efficiency of the latest mass production has reached 26.26%, combined with refined management experience, continuous optimization of production processes, and reduction of unit consumption, and the cost of non-silicon has been reduced to less than 0.16 yuan/W, which is significantly ahead of the industry average.
It is worth mentioning that the full replacement of P-type technology by N-type technology has become unstoppable. N-type product quality standards are higher, the production process is more complex, and the subdivision technology is more diverse, which makes it put forward higher requirements for the company's technology research and development strength, process control level, production management ability, etc., which also forces the industry to "reshuffle" to intensify, the weak will be further eliminated, and the market will move closer to Tongwei and other technical strengths.
On the whole, Tongwei has a layout in PERC, N-type TOPCon, HJT and other battery technology routes, and also has a long-term layout of perovskite/silicon tandem cell technology, diversifying the layout without losing the opportunity.
In the field of polysilicon, after years of research and accumulation of polysilicon technology, Tongwei's self-developed "Yongxiang Method" has been updated to the eighth generation, and the purity of high-purity crystalline silicon products can reach more than 99.9999999%, and the R&D reserve of "Yongxiang Method" has reached the ninth generation.
At the same time, the company has promoted a number of consumption indicators to further decline, and further achieved cost reduction through self-supply of silicon powder, etc., and the average production cost of high-purity crystalline silicon products in 2023 has dropped to less than 42,000 yuan/ton, and the cost price is much lower than the industry average. Therefore, even if the entire photovoltaic industry is fighting a cold winter in the current market, Tongwei's polysilicon segment will still be able to achieve a net profit of more than 45,000 yuan per ton in 2023.
As far as modules are concerned, the company has repeatedly reached new highs in conversion efficiency by virtue of its years of accumulation in module technology and market. Recently, there is good news in the formation sector: certified by the authoritative TUV SÜD, the high-efficiency HJT module independently developed by Tongwei has a maximum output power of 762.79W and a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 24.56% under the standard size of 2384*1303mm. This is another new record set by Tongwei modules after the Tongwei 182-72 TNC module set a new power record in early April.
Combined with the synergistic advantages of upstream high-purity crystalline silicon and solar cells, Tongwei has established a competitive large-scale module business system to provide high-quality Tongwei module products to various types of customers such as centralized and distributed customers around the world, and the products have covered major domestic state-owned power generation groups and overseas customers in more than 40 countries and regions.
In the ever-changing photovoltaic industry, technology iteration is one of the core competitive factors, therefore, Tongwei continues to increase R&D, continue to innovate and make breakthroughs, promote technology iteration, and strive to make its products more competitive in the market. According to financial data, the company's R&D investment in 2023 will reach 3.982 billion yuan, and the cumulative R&D investment in the past three years will reach 10.419 billion yuan.
Phased adjustments do not change the long-term trend, and green development remains the top priority
In the context of the country's "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", green energy has been repeatedly pushed to a new strategic height, and photovoltaics, as the "cheapest" energy source in the future, will have a particularly broad market space in the future.
In recent years, with the rapid increase in the demand for installed PV terminals, huge amounts of capital have poured into the PV industry, and capacity expansion has accelerated, with the nominal production capacity of each link of the main PV industry chain exceeding 800GW by the end of 2023. According to data from InfoLink Consulting, the average selling prices of high-purity crystalline silicon, wafers, cells, and modules at the end of 2023 decreased by 80%, 58%, 60%, and 45% respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and the prices of wafers, cells, and modules hit record lows in the fourth quarter, respectively, and module prices entered the "1 yuan" era.
In the above context, the economy of photovoltaic power generation continues to increase, and photovoltaic is one step closer to the "cheapest" energy.
Stimulated by both the market and policies, the global demand for photovoltaic installed capacity continues to maintain high growth. According to BNEF statistics, the global installed capacity of new PV capacity will reach 444GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 76%. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, the new installed capacity of domestic PV in mainland China will reach 216.88GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 148.1%, far exceeding the market's expectations at the beginning of the year, of which the new installed capacity in December alone will exceed 50GW, and the cumulative installed capacity of PV has surpassed hydropower and become the second largest source of electricity in the mainland.
Obviously, whether from the price side or from the downstream installation side analysis, photovoltaic energy will occupy an important position in the mainland's energy structure, and it is also a long-term development trend in the future.
From the perspective of the photovoltaic industry cycle, it is still at the bottom of the cycle. At present, the competition in the industrial chain has intensified, prices have fallen rapidly, the profitability of enterprises has declined, some enterprises have taken the lead in operating losses, market financing has been significantly tightened, the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises has been further compressed, the backward production capacity of the industry is facing accelerated clearance, and the new capacity planning is facing the risk of not being able to land. According to incomplete statistics, in 2023, nearly ten listed companies have successively issued announcements on the postponement or termination of production capacity.
However, previous PV cycles have proven that the bottom of the industrial cycle will not be "sideways" for too long. At the photovoltaic industry conference in November last year, Liu Hanyuan, chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei Group, had predicted: "The potential and growth space of the photovoltaic industry in the future are still huge, and the industrial surplus will almost be re-balanced in a short period of time - half a year, a year or a little longer - so there is no need to worry too much, the market affairs will be handed over to the market, and the government can deal with the so-called excess crisis with appropriate guidance." ”
For the industrial cycle, in addition to the business bosses who are in the front line of production are particularly sensitive, the sense of smell of capital is often the most sensitive. Comparing the first quarterly report and the 2023 annual report disclosed by Tongwei shares, among the top ten circulating shareholders, there are not a few investment institutions that choose to hold and increase their positions for a long time.
Among them, Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 Exchange-traded Open-ended Index Securities Investment Fund and SSE 50 Exchange-traded Open-ended Index Securities Investment Fund all chose to increase their positions in the first quarter, and institutions such as China Life Asset-Advantage Selection 2108 Insurance Asset Management Products still insist on long-term holding.
There is a profound investment logic behind the increase of institutions to Tongwei: with the further intensification of market competition and the acceleration of the clearance of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, the leading photovoltaic enterprises have shown stronger anti-risk ability in the process of "reshuffling" the industrial chain by virtue of their comprehensive competitive advantages such as advanced production capacity, cost control, cash reserves, and human resources, and the market share has been further improved, and the industry has presented a strong and strong market pattern.
(This article was first published on Titanium Media APP)