With the decline in sales in April and the extension of the delivery cycle, how will the supply and demand ends of car companies stabilize in the future?

Affected by the epidemic, the impact of pressure on both the production and consumption ends of the automobile has gradually emerged.

The latest data show that in April, the new domestic car-making forces rearranged. In terms of brands, zero-run cars surpassed "Wei Xiaoli" and ranked first in the monthly delivery volume of new domestic car-making forces for the first time; Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 9,002 vehicles, ranking second; Nezha Automobile ranked third with 8813 deliveries.

Among the top three new car-making forces, the delivery of new cars by Weilai Automobile and Ideal Automobile in April was significantly dragged down by the supply chain. Weilai Automobile's deliveries fell by 49.2% month-on-month to 5,074 units last month; the delivery of ideal cars was only 4,167 units, down 62.2% month-on-month, becoming the largest month-on-month decline in deliveries in April.

Not only new energy vehicles, under the epidemic, fuel vehicles are also facing production capacity challenges. Car companies have had to re-examine their "Just in time" zero-inventory management strategy and supply chain model.

However, with the gradual easing of the epidemic, both government departments and car companies themselves have taken a series of measures to actively respond to the impact of the supply chain brought about by the epidemic and promote the steady development of the industry.

Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with the media recently, "The mainland automobile industry has strong resilience, large market space and deep gradient, with the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control, we are full of confidence in the 'synchronous recovery' of supply and demand, and the loss of production and marketing in the second quarter is expected to be made up in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve stable growth throughout the year." ”

The epidemic has hindered production and extended the delivery cycle of new cars

Since March, due to the rebound of the epidemic, the supply chain of the automobile industry in many places has been affected, and the original production rhythm of automobile enterprises in some areas has been disrupted.

According to the survey data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales targets of major manufacturers fell sharply year-on-year, and it was initially estimated that the retail sales of domestic narrow passenger cars in April were about 1.100 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year; in the new energy vehicle market, some head manufacturers were affected by production and supply, and short-term sales declined.

The latest delivery "report card" disclosed by a number of new car-making enterprises shows that due to the impact of the supply chain, most companies' deliveries in April fell month-on-month, and collectively fell below 10,000 vehicles. Among them, the delivery of new cars of Weilai Automobile and Ideal Automobile is obviously dragged down by the supply chain.

On April 9, due to the suspension of production of supply chain partners in many places due to the epidemic, Weilai Automobile suspended vehicle production for 5 days. At that time, Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, once said bluntly, "A car is not a part that is worse than one part." "Weilai Automobile already had some parts out of supply in mid-March, relying on some parts inventory to barely support until April. However, many suppliers in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places could not supply and could only suspend production.

It was not until April 14 that WEILAI Automobile's Hefei production base gradually resumed production. However, NIO also pointed out that its follow-up production plan also depends on the recovery of the supply chain.

As for the reason for the decline in april deliveries, Ideal Also attributed it to being affected by a shortage of spare parts.

"This has had a big impact on the production of the ideal car in April, resulting in the delay in the delivery of new cars for some users." Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Ideal Automobile, revealed that Ideal Automobile's Changzhou base and more than 80% of its parts suppliers are located in the Yangtze River Delta region. Some suppliers located in Shanghai and Kunshan, Jiangsu and other regions were unable to supply, and some suppliers even completely stopped work and operation, resulting in the inability to continue production after the existing parts inventory was digested.

On May 5, the Beijing News Shell financial reporter learned that due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the new car delivery cycle of many new energy vehicle brands has also been extended. If the order is placed now, the Tesla Model 3 and other vehicle cycles are expected to take 20-24 weeks, and the Model Y is expected to be 10-14 weeks. "It is now expected that the pick-up time will be about 100 days. Because of the impact of the epidemic, some customers have been waiting for more than 140 days. Tesla customer service revealed.

The conservative waiting time of the main new energy models under "Wei Xiaoli" also varies from 8 weeks to 14 weeks, and Xiaopeng Motors even expects to wait about 20-21 weeks.

The relevant staff of Xiaopeng Automobile told reporters that there are reasons for the large number of orders, and there are also reasons for the epidemic. "Because of the epidemic, the procurement time of some spare parts has been extended, resulting in an extension of the delivery cycle of new cars." In addition, according to the official website of Xiaopeng Automobile, the current 562km and 706km versions of Xiaopeng P7 models are not in stock and cannot be booked.

Not only new energy vehicles, under the epidemic, fuel vehicles are also facing severe tests.

In the first quarter of this year, Great Wall Motor's cumulative sales fell by 16.32% from the same period last year to 283,500 units. The Haval brand and the Great Wall pickup truck both showed double-digit declines. From April 14 to 22, due to the suspension and operation of eight supplier partners, the production of Great Wall Motor's Tank 300 model was suspended for 8 days, and the delivery of the vehicle was delayed.

Great Wall Motors said that due to the impact of the epidemic in many places in China, a number of parts suppliers have been affected, resulting in limited production capacity of factories.

Changan Automobile revealed that the epidemic has led to limited production of some suppliers, logistics obstruction, and tight supply of automotive chips and other parts, resulting in a certain degree of loss of enterprises.

"In order to alleviate the shortage of chips, Changan Automobile launched the company's high-level on-site squatting and grabbing mechanism, arranged for the company's leaders to ensure on-site office supply, and coordinated the shortage of chip supply." Changan Automobile said in a quarterly report that it will also carry out material reserves and quickly carry out chip replacement research and development work to minimize the impact of supply chain fluctuations on production.

A number of measures have promoted the resumption of work and production of car companies, and the average daily output of 15 key domestic car companies has reached 45,000 units

Although the epidemic has made the automotive industry face great challenges in the past month or so, since mid-to-late April, after many days of production stoppage, car companies in Changchun, Jilin and Shanghai, represented by FAW and SAIC, have resumed work and production. The production rhythm of a number of new car-making enterprises is also gradually recovering.

On May 2, NIO announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that auto production is gradually recovering, and NIO will continue to cooperate with supply chain partners to accelerate the full resumption of production; it is expected to start delivering the fifth production model ET5 in September this year.

Xiaopeng Motors said that with the help of various ministries and competent departments, Xiaopeng Motors will continue to take positive measures to ensure production and smooth delivery.

"At present, Ideal Auto is working with supply chain enterprises to actively restore production capacity under the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, and shorten the waiting period for booking ideal ONE users to pick up the car." Shen Yanan revealed.

With the further control of the epidemic, in addition to the car companies themselves actively taking measures to deal with the risk of "broken chains", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other regulatory authorities have also announced countermeasures to the public many times to promote the gradual resumption of production of car companies and auto supply chain enterprises.

On April 11, the Equipment Industry Development Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially launched the "Automotive Industry Chain Supply Chain Smooth Coordination Platform" to further ensure the smooth supply chain of the automotive industry chain. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology dispatched a working group in Shanghai, and set up a "white list" of key enterprises in the field of industry and informatization to prioritize the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries. Among them, there are more than 200 enterprises that belong to automobile production and industrial chain support.

On April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology issued a notice allowing enterprises on the "white list" to take the lead in resuming work and production after meeting the epidemic prevention requirements, and issued guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic in Shanghai industrial enterprises.

Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently revealed in an interview with the media that through the joint efforts of various regions and departments, the work of ensuring the smoothness of the industrial chain supply chain has achieved initial results, and the pace of resuming work and production in key areas and key industries has accelerated. As of April 28, among the first batch of 666 "white list" enterprises in Shanghai, the resumption rate was 86.8%, of which the resumption rate of vehicle and parts supporting enterprises in the automobile manufacturing industry reached 77%, and the resumption rate of related enterprises such as integrated circuit design, manufacturing, packaging and testing reached 91%. The 50 key enterprises monitored by Jilin Province have a resumption rate of 98%.

"Automobile is an important pillar industry of the national economy and is of great significance for stabilizing the overall situation of economic development." Xin Guobin said that from April 22 to 28, the average daily output of 15 key automobile enterprise groups in the country reached 45,000 units, an increase of 70% over the previous statistical cycle (April 15 to 22), and the production situation is gradually improving.

Xin Guobin believes that "from a comprehensive point of view, the mainland automobile industry has strong resilience, large market space and deep gradient, with the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control, we are full of confidence in the 'synchronous recovery' of supply and demand, and the loss of production and marketing in the second quarter is expected to be made up in the second half of the year, and stable growth is expected to be achieved throughout the year." ”

No new purchase restriction measures and consumption subsidies have been introduced in many places to boost automobile consumption

In addition to actively promoting the resumption of work and production in the automotive industry at the production end, in the terminal market, the relevant state departments and local governments are also introducing favorable policies to boost automobile consumption.

"Encourage bulk consumption of automobiles, home appliances, etc., all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the incremental indicators of purchase restrictions have been implemented." Support the consumption of new energy vehicles. The executive meeting of the State Council on April 13 made the latest deployment to promote automobile consumption.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the head of the automotive industry, quickly followed. On April 19, Luo Junjie, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference of the State New Office that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will study and clarify support policies such as the continuation of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles as soon as possible, optimize the "double integral" management method; continue to carry out the pilot work of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and the power exchange mode, and start the pilot project of fully electrified vehicles in the public sector.

On April 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential to Promote the Sustained Recovery of Consumption", proposing to vigorously develop green consumption and support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles; steadily increase bulk consumption such as automobiles, and each region must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and areas that have implemented purchase restrictions have gradually increased the number of automobile incremental indicators, relaxed the qualification restrictions of car buyers, and encouraged purchase restriction areas except for individual megacities to implement differentiated policies for urban and suburban indicators, and more laws. Economic and scientific and technological means to regulate the use of automobiles, according to local conditions to gradually abolish the purchase of automobiles, and promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management.

"This has a good guiding significance for stabilizing and promoting automobile consumption, and is conducive to the further introduction of specific measures to promote automobile consumption by local governments." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said.

Under the guidance of the policies issued by the relevant state departments, in order to further stimulate the domestic automobile consumption market, local governments have also introduced preferential policies.

The Shenyang Municipal Government invested 100 million yuan to issue car consumption subsidies to individual consumers who bought cars in Shenyang.

The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Announcement of Guangdong New Energy Vehicle Purchase Subsidy Activities", from May 1 to June 30, 2022, for individual consumers who purchase new energy vehicles within the scope of promoted models in the province and complete the registration of motor vehicles in the province, they will be given a comprehensive use subsidy of 8,000 yuan per new energy vehicle.

In addition, the "Several Measures for Further Promoting Consumption in Guangdong Province" mentions that between May and June this year, on the basis of the original, Guangzhou will increase 30,000 car purchase indicators and Shenzhen will increase 10,000 car purchase indicators; all localities must not introduce measures to restrict car purchases.

On April 27, Tianjin Xiqing District launched the first phase of the 2022 automobile consumption promotion activity, including a total of 10 million yuan of automobile consumption coupons. Shandong Province has also made it clear that it will promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, with a maximum subsidy of 50,400 yuan / vehicle for new energy vehicles in the non-public sector that meet the conditions in 2022, and a maximum subsidy of 64,800 yuan / vehicle for new energy vehicles in the public sector.

Cui Dongshu believes that the current trend of promoting automobile consumption in various places has been relatively obvious, and stabilizing automobile consumption is the consensus.

Zheshang Securities Research Report said that it is expected that the support of local governments for new energy vehicle consumption will increase in the follow-up to help recover automobile consumption after the epidemic.

Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Zhang Bing Editor Yue Caizhou Proofreader Yang Xuli