Waiting to sound the clarion call for the resumption of work and production
The epidemic is making a comeback, and the automotive market is experiencing a freezing moment. The factory stopped working and could not build a car; transportation was restricted and could not be transported; there were no customers in the exhibition hall and cars could not be sold.
Moreover, the horizontal and vertical involvement of the automobile industry chain is deep, and the lack of a link will also affect the overall situation, and it will also take time to recover after the flag.
At the beginning of April, production and sales fell sharply
Referring to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, from April 1 to 10, the retail sales of passenger cars were 246,000 units, down 32% year-on-year, down 67% from the previous week, and down 39% from the same period last month; the wholesale of passenger cars was 242,000 units, down 39% year-on-year, down 72% from the previous week, and down 45% from the same period last month.
At the beginning of April, retail was cold. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic, the pace of new car listing of many manufacturers has been adjusted, either hard to release online, or postponed backwards, the Beijing Auto Show has also been postponed, and some are far away; on the other hand, consumers tend to avoid risk aversion mentality, temporarily do not consider large expenditures, and the showroom traffic has also decreased significantly, and retail sales will inevitably decline.
Wholesale and production have a lot to do with each other. At the beginning of April, wholesale sales fell more than retail sales, mainly due to production blockages.
In this epidemic, Shanghai and Jilin are the hardest hit areas. From the statistics, it can be seen that the automobile production of Shanghai and Jilin Provinces each accounts for 11% of the national output. At the same time, Shanghai is also the core hub of many auto parts companies. As a result, not only the production of complete vehicles has been lost, but also the production of parts and components in the country has been affected, and even in other areas less affected by the epidemic, their vehicle production will also be restricted.
Impact, affect the big picture
On April 9, NIO announced the suspension of vehicle production in its APP.
Li Bin explained in the message, "Affected by the epidemic in Changchun and Hebei, some of our parts were cut off in mid-March, relying on some parts inventory to barely support until last week." Recently, there have been epidemics in Shanghai and Jiangsu, and many partners cannot supply goods and can only suspend production. This situation is not ours, many manufacturers have suspended production. We are as anxious as everyone else and hope that the epidemic will pass soon. ”
"Almost one part cannot be produced", Weilai is by no means an isolated case.
On April 13, the tank brand under the Great Wall officially announced that due to the impact of the epidemic in many places, the tank 300 model involved a total of 8 suppliers to stop work and stop operation, which was helpless, and the tank 300 model was suspended from April 14.
On April 14, He Xiaopeng posted a Weibo update, "If supply chain companies in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May." ”
On April 17, Huawei Yu Chengdong also said, "If Shanghai cannot resume work and production, after May, all technology/industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain will be completely shut down, especially the automobile industry!" The economic loss/cost of the industry will be very large! Since mid-April, some companies have begun to cut off supply and production due to the closure of Shanghai and other places."
These are not alarmist, more than half of the world's core components headquarters and factories in China are located in Shanghai, such as Bosch, ZF, Aptiv, Valeo and so on.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that Shanghai is the core of the national automotive industry community, and the pressure on the operation of the automotive industry in Shanghai and the risk spillover of Shanghai's auto parts system have a great impact on the national automotive industry.
When will the resumption of work and production be resumed?
The clarion call for the resumption of work and production is sounding.
Recently, Shanghai has released the first batch of "white list" of enterprises that have resumed work. Among the first batch of 666 companies, there are about 250 in the automotive-related category, including SAIC Passenger Cars, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and Tesla.
Tesla's list notes "discontinued companies that must resume work." On March 16 and 17, Tesla has stopped production for two consecutive days, and then since March 28, it has continued to suspend production activities.
The current news is that Tesla resumed production on April 18, but what needs to be done in the early stage is still a production "stress test", and then it may also be a "one-shift system", the production capacity is halved, and it will take a long time to fully recover.
In SAIC's guidelines for resuming work and production, it is planned to launch a stress test for resuming work and production on April 18. For enterprises with successful stress testing, the production of complete vehicles and parts will be arranged as soon as possible.
In fact, since March, many employees of SAIC Motor Have eaten and lived in the factory and implemented closed-loop management. However, due to the shortage of spare parts, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have successively stopped production, but the SAIC Passenger Car Lingang Plant has been closed for production.
Depending on the trend of the epidemic, the production capacity of vehicles and parts in Shanghai is expected to gradually recover.
Pandemic triggers "long tail effect"
In the short term, the epidemic affects production; in the long run, the epidemic affects consumption.
During the pandemic, having a private car instead of crowding public transport will spur some demand for a car. But the biggest concern is that the decline in the income of most consumers due to the epidemic will suppress consumers' willingness to buy cars, especially affecting the sales of A-class fuel vehicles.
The A-class fuel vehicle occupies a larger share of the automobile market. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, sales of A-class fuel vehicles fell by 29% year-on-year in March. The "long tail effect" caused by the epidemic is most worried about the impact on the purchasing power of most ordinary people.
This also takes a long time to recover.
The author of this article is Kick Car Gang Cao An