The supply chain of the automobile industry under the epidemic is experiencing a new round of challenges.
On April 9, weilai announced that vehicle production had been suspended by supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places. On April 14, WEILAI said that the supply chain recovered slightly, but the follow-up production plan also depends on the recovery of the supply chain.
The impact has been expanding, on April 13, the official App of the tank brand issued a notice saying that due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, the tank 300 model involved a total of 8 supplier partners to stop work and operation, and the tank 300 model was suspended from April 14.
On the evening of April 14, He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng Automobile, even said, "If the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May." ”
This view was endorsed by Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business and CEO of Smart Car BU.
On April 15, Yu Chengdong posted in the circle of friends that if Shanghai cannot resume work and production, all technology/industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain after May will be completely shut down, especially the automobile industry.
He said that since mid-April, some companies have begun to cut off supply and production due to closures such as Shanghai. If this continues, the economic loss/cost of the industry will be significant.
Shanghai, for its part, is trying to alleviate this problem.
On April 18, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology formulated and issued the Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of the Epidemic in Shanghai Industrial Enterprises resuming work and production, which further clarified the ideas for enterprises to resume work and production.
Among the 666 white-listed enterprises, a number of vehicle and parts manufacturing enterprises and industrial chain supporting enterprises, including SAIC Group, Shanghai Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and Tesla, have been included in the "white list" of resuming work and production. Among them, Tesla, located in the Lingang area, was listed as a "discontinued enterprise that must resume work".
However, for many new energy vehicle companies, this April is destined to be the biggest challenge since the establishment of the company.
Car company workers: more than 20 days off, dare not go out to shop online
Nio's suspension of production is just the beginning.
Workshop workers of a joint venture car company told Phoenix WEEKLY Finance that it has been on holiday for more than 20 days due to the supply of parts in Shanghai. "If I don't go to work, I don't have a salary, I don't dare to go out shopping this month, I don't dare to buy things online, now I eat and sleep all day, life has no motivation, I just want to go to work quickly."
It is understood that the brand's factory is located in central China. The reporter of "Phoenix WEEKLY Finance" asked the relevant person in charge of the brand for verification, and the person in charge said that the current production situation of its factory is indeed more difficult.
There are also workers working at a car company's Chengdu factory that said its factory has been closed for nearly a month.
According to the First Financial Daily, on April 17, Dongfeng Nissan's factories across the country have suspended production. The reason for the suspension of production is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places, for example, it has 83 suppliers in Shanghai, most of which are electronic products, and they are all core component manufacturers.
There are also foreign car companies that are deeply affected by the Shanghai supply chain.
It is understood that from April 11 to 15, Mitsubishi Motors' main factory in Japan, Okazaki Plant, stopped production for five days. The main reason for the suspension of production is that Mitsubishi Motors' parts suppliers in Shanghai are implementing sealing management, resulting in a shortage of new car parts.
It is reported that because of the epidemic in Shanghai, Mitsubishi is already considering increasing the proportion of orders from Japanese parts partners.
Why is the shanghai supply chain shutdown affecting so much?
As a leading city in the national automotive industry, Shanghai's Yangtze River Delta region has an extremely strong industrial chain and is a key area for international parts giants to set up headquarters and lay out factories. In the Yangtze River Delta region, there are more than 600 auto parts enterprises above designated size.
Among them, Shanghai is home to more than half of the headquarters of global parts giants and some of their factories, and 9 of the world's top 10 parts groups are located in Shanghai, including Bosch, ZF, Magna, Hyundai Mobis and other enterprises.
Parts companies located in the Yangtze River Delta are not only important partners of local car companies in Shanghai, but also shoulder the task of supplying domestic and even other regions of the world.
Affected by the epidemic, many parts and components companies have already announced the suspension of production, and the resumption time is to be determined.
The picture shows Shanghai Bosch
In early April, Bosch suspended production at a factory in Shanghai that produces domestic hot water systems and an auto parts factory in Jilin to comply with local epidemic prevention and control regulations. At the same time, Bosch's auto parts plants in Shanghai and Taicang, Jiangsu Province, have also adopted a closed-loop operation model, but it is more difficult to increase production capacity.
According to the "Finance and Economics Weekly", the production line beam (the main body of the automotive circuit) accounts for 80% of the country's supply of Aptiv, although its Anting factory has carried out closed-loop production, but the production capacity is only equivalent to 80% of the past.
In addition to the fact that some parts and components companies can slowly carry out closed-loop production, more companies are still in a state of suspension.
Mr. Zhang, the head of a company that produces automotive safety components, said that its factory is located in Shanghai, but it has been shut down for more than 20 days, and customer inventory is in a state of emergency. It is understood that the parts produced by the company are supplied to almost all domestic car brands.
"The government says we can do production, but the factory must operate in a closed loop, which we can't do because we can't guarantee the food, housing, safety and health of our employees."
Not only can the normal operation of the factory not be guaranteed, But Mr. Zhang's own life is not very guaranteed. His family is in a closed area, and his biggest wish every day is to be able to grab vegetables smoothly.
There are also some parts and components companies that are about to face production due to the inability to transport raw materials into the factory.
Employees of companies that make on-board connectors say their company's factory is located in Suzhou, but the core raw materials used for processing are trapped in Shanghai. Due to the obstruction of logistics, the company was unable to produce, and it has received a holiday notice.
In the face of the main engine factory in the WeChat group, he said that he was also helpless. "Now logistics send a freight fee of tens of thousands, if the car companies are willing to bear then we will definitely actively cooperate, but if they just want to transfer the cost to us, then we can only lie flat."
According to Gaz Auto, the person in charge of the enterprise with the production line bundle said that although some employees of the company are currently in closed-loop production, and there are procurement personnel who are docking upstream suppliers around the clock to follow up the delivery progress, but the upper end of the transportation is not in place, the raw materials will be used up sooner or later, and in the long run, it will face the risk of suspension of production.
He Xiaopeng is worried about it?
"This is a problem faced by the entire industrial chain, and it has nothing to do with the supply chain system of the main engine factory." Yan Jianlai, deputy secretary-general of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, said that this was a sudden incident and not a mistake in the operation of the enterprise.
In his view, the better the lean production method of the enterprise, the greater the negative impact will be.
What is Lean Production?
The lean production method is to send parts directly from the manufacturing plant to the main engine factory production line, leaving the inventory to the supplier, saving the inventory on the space, time and capital occupation for the car company, so as to achieve better financial performance.
Because there are no redundant parts, its requirements for the supply chain system are more stringent, and no link can be lost, otherwise it will affect the normal operation of the entire production chain.
Yan Jianlai introduced that the inventory of general car companies is about two weeks, and the enterprises close to the parts supply enterprises almost all adopt a point-to-point supply method, which will be more affected.
If the supply side is far away from the main engine factory, the impact will be relatively small. "For example, a parts company in Guangzhou is Changchun FAW Parts, and there will definitely be an intermediate turnover warehouse between the two places, and the inventory will be more than that of ordinary enterprises, and the support time will be longer."
However, some people believe that it is the epidemic that has amplified the drawbacks of lean production methods, so even if it is an emergency, it will test the temporary response ability of car companies.
"The above model is difficult to cope with the uncertainties caused by the epidemic, and in the face of the dual crisis of supply delays and chip shortages caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the automotive industry needs to react quickly, but from suppliers to customers to recyclers, the information of the entire automotive value chain is fragmented." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes.
In his view, automakers, suppliers and technology companies need to join forces to design a new way of working.
"Together, 28 partners in the European automotive industry have launched Catena-X, a data exchange ecosystem that enables organizations to share information on their own terms while protecting privacy and security. We need a platform that can work with partners along the value chain, a platform that opens up new areas of competition. ”
Can the words of He Xiaopeng and Yu Chengdong be taken seriously?
"At present, the self-control rate of most domestic models of parts is more than 80%, so the suspension of parts companies in Shanghai and other places is a very fatal thing." Yan Jianlai believes that if the current state continues, the suspension of production by most car companies in the country in May may become a reality.
Many people also believe that even if the status quo is maintained, the possibility of large-scale production stoppages by car companies across the country is relatively small.
Among them, Cui Dongshu believes: "Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also begun to do blockage tracking and corresponding processing of industry information, which is actually the establishment of an industry shared information system, and its potential value and benefits of the industry are huge, which promotes the confidence of reshaping the supply chain." ”
He believes that short-term pressures can be quickly resolved, and there will be no large-scale shutdown of the national automotive industry in May.
Some store models only have exhibition cars left
Regardless of whether production will be stopped in May, it is certain that the production and sales of car companies will be greatly affected in April.
On April 16, Cui Dongshu believed that the production and marketing supply of the automotive industry was very obviously affected by the epidemic, and the impact is expected to last at least until May, affecting 20%-40% of the country's output.
In his view, the output is mainly affected by two aspects: on the one hand, the main engine factory in the epidemic area has stopped production due to epidemic control and parts shortage, on the other hand, the high-speed closure has led to the suspension of logistics, and the terminal order cannot be delivered on time, and the non-epidemic area main engine factory is also facing the risk of suspension and production reduction because bosch and other important parts suppliers cannot produce and transport.
And 5 days ago, his forecast was 15%-20%.
Reflected in the terminal market, a large number of vehicles expected to be delivered this month have been delayed, causing consumer dissatisfaction and adversely affecting corporate sales; while some popular models in 4S stores/directly operated stores are even only show cars, and the delivery time of all models has also been extended.
"It's been 290 days, the Krypton 001 has not yet been delivered, and the small electric donkeys bought at the same time have run 1,000 kilometers." In the extreme krypton car owner exchange group, a prospective car owner said that he was discouraged. The factory is located in JiKr, Hangzhou, and has been affected by the epidemic and supply chain many times in the past six months.
Judging from the delivery time displayed on Tesla's official website, the current ordered model also needs to wait for 10 weeks at the earliest, of which the model 3 standard version of the model needs at least 5 months to wait.
"Affected by the epidemic, no customers have come to see the car recently, last month's performance was not completed, this month's performance can not be completed, and then continue like this, there is only resignation." An employee who works as a salesman for Xiaopeng Motors in Hangzhou complained online.
"Phoenix WEEKLY Finance" reporter visited a number of offline car brands in Beijing on the weekend, and found that most of the popular models waited for the car cycle in about 2 months, and some models (Xiaopeng P5 460G) waited for more than 5 months; compared with before, the traffic to the store did not open up too much gap.
In fact, as early as March, the sales volume of the domestic automobile market has been affected by the epidemic and has shown a downward trend. According to caucus data, vehicle production and sales in March totaled 2.241 million units and 2.234 million units, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively.
At the end of last year, for the domestic automobile market sales in 2022, many industry institutions gave expectations for a year-on-year increase of 5%-7%, but the cumulative sales of automobiles in the first three months of this year increased by 0.2% year-on-year.
However, the turnaround has already occurred. At present, Shanghai is actively promoting the resumption of work and production of enterprises to ensure the safety and stability of the industrial chain supply chain. SAIC Motor, a leading automobile company, is expected to launch a stress test for resuming work and production in the near future, and Tesla China is also planning to resume work and production.
This is a good signal for car companies.