Editor's note: The epidemic has affected the automotive supply chain, and many car companies such as Tesla, Weilai, and Great Wall Motors have fallen into a "production capacity dilemma". The agency pointed out that new energy vehicles have been disturbed by the production reduction of the epidemic in the short term, and the long-term trend has not changed.
Author: Judy
Weilai, the new car-making force that can carry it the most, can't bear it. Not only did it usher in the first increase in price, but it was also forced to announce the suspension of production. Although Weilai said a few days ago that the factory in Hefei has gradually resumed production, supply chain problems have recovered slightly. But for major car companies, the recent peers seem to have a bad life.
With the large-scale counterattack of the epidemic, almost all car companies are facing pressure from the supply chain level and the sales side, and have fallen into a "production capacity dilemma". At present, the severely affected Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions are the main areas of domestic automobile production. In 2021, the total production/sales of Jilin and Shanghai alone will account for 20%/5% of the country.
The automotive industry chain continues to be under pressure, and all car companies will stop production in May.
In late March, SAIC-GM, SAIC Volkswagen and other plants cut production or even directly suspended production. Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has been shut down since March 28, and there is no clear news of the resumption of work. Great Wall also said, "At present, due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, many parts suppliers of Great Wall Motors have been affected, resulting in limited production capacity of factories. ”
Not only are automakers stuck in difficulties, but parts manufacturers in many areas around Jiangsu and Zhejiang are also affected, and supply is difficult. Bosch, ZF, Aptiv international automotive supplier giants all have factories in Shanghai, in addition, the automotive industry chain covers more than 100 enterprises in the fields of engines, power batteries, chips, body interiors and exteriors, many of which are difficult to operate normally.
On April 14, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, issued a warning in the circle of friends, saying, "If the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, by May all Chinese automakers may face suspension of work and production." ”
Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business and CEO of Smart Car BU, also said, "If Shanghai cannot resume work and production, all technology/industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain after May will be completely shut down, and the industrial economic losses/costs will be very large." Especially in the automotive industry. ”
A number of big guys frequently issued early warnings, and the production capacity of car companies was urgent! What will be the impact of production cuts and production suspensions? How will major car companies develop in the future?
Demand remained optimistic and delivery pressure escalated
The most direct impact of the depot's production cut and suspension is to increase the delivery pressure, the cumulative undelivered orders of the Great Wall tank series have reached 140,000 vehicles, and the pick-up cycle has been more than half a year. The shutdown of Tesla's Shanghai factory directly led to Tesla reducing deliveries by approximately 26,000 units, with deliveries continuing to be delayed.
It is worth noting that from the data point of view, the current epidemic restrictions on the supply chain may not have been transmitted to the consumer side.
Despite the pressure of supply chain pressure, subsidy decline, and price increases, the overall retail trend of the domestic passenger car market in March was lower than expected. However, new energy vehicles continued to soar, with overall sales reaching 445,000 units in March, up 137.6% year-on-year. The monthly penetration rate has reached 28.2%, a record high. BYD's cumulative sales in the first quarter were 286,300 vehicles, and the cumulative sales of new car-making forces such as Xiaopeng, Ideal and Nezha exceeded 30,000 units in the first quarter.
Zheshang Securities analysis said that although the epidemic has led to limited control of automobile travel and limited consumption scenarios, without considering major economic impacts, the impact of the epidemic on the demand side is only to postpone demand, and demand will not disappear, and it is expected to drive car purchase demand forward under the normalization of the epidemic. It is expected that with the control of the epidemic, production capacity will gradually recover and continue to reach new highs.
In addition, major car companies and parts manufacturers are also striving to "break through" and ensure production and supply. On April 11, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also coordinated the smooth flow of the automotive supply chain, and launched the "Automotive Industry Chain Supply Chain Smooth Coordination Platform", which will solicit the practical difficulties currently faced by auto companies and supply chain enterprises across the country. The "production capacity dilemma" faced by major car companies seems to be getting better.
Institutions: New energy vehicles are disturbed by production cuts in the short term, and the long-term trend will not change
Despite the continuous turmoil in the production capacity of major car companies, many institutions have expressed an optimistic attitude towards the future prospects of the automotive industry chain.
Everbright Securities expressed optimism about the prospect of continuous release of 2C demand for new energy passenger vehicles, and it is expected that car companies are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and cost upward pressure through comprehensive adjustment of prices and equities, maintain the steady release of new orders, and it is expected that short-term mass production/delivery will mainly depend on the degree of recovery of the epidemic, supply chain, and logistics.
The bank is optimistic about car companies with strong model cycles (chip supply mitigation has strong sales and profit elasticity), as well as the continuous increase in new energy penetration rate / the promotion path of intelligent electrification is clear and clear. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motors, it is recommended to pay attention to BYD, and the new forces recommend Tesla, which recommends long-term attention to ideals; the spare parts plate recommends Fuyao Glass.
Dongguan Securities Research Report pointed out that the production and sales of automobiles in March were affected by the epidemic and lower than expected, and it is expected that the epidemic factors will still have a negative impact on automobile production and sales in April. In terms of new energy vehicles, car companies have sufficient orders in hand, supporting the continuation of high growth momentum in production and sales, the penetration rate has further climbed, the resilience of independent brands is strong, and the competitiveness has continued to increase. After the improvement of the epidemic, the production and sales of automobiles are expected to improve marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality parts suppliers who actively grasp the development trend of automobile electric intelligence.
CITIC Securities pointed out that considering that Shanghai and Jilin are expected to organize the resumption of work and production in mid-April, and various parts suppliers and vehicle manufacturers are also improving their supply chain management capabilities, the bank believes that the short-term shutdown impact will not be a constraint on the production of the whole year. Although the market is expected to slow down the growth of the total number of passenger cars in the second quarter, considering the current sufficient orders from the head new energy vehicle companies, and the rush effect of subsidies in the second half of the year, investors can still remain optimistic about the demand for new energy vehicles throughout the year.
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