Blessings and misfortunes depend on each other, and China's new energy vehicles will grow explosively in 2021, but it also lays down unfavorable factors.
In 2021, new energy vehicles will become the biggest highlight of China's automotive industry, ranking first in the world in sales for 7 consecutive years. In the whole year of 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of 2020.
In December last year, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19.1%, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 20.6%. From the overall point of view, the development of the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven new development stages, showing a good development situation of both market scale and development quality.
However, the new energy vehicle credits in 2021 may be very worthless.
On April 8, the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and the Credits of New Energy Vehicles in 2021". In 2021, the 2021 double point account of each car company is basically clear.
In 2021, China's automotive industry generated a total of 15.5349 million positive fuel consumption points, an increase of 255.7% year-on-year; 6.1366 million negative fuel consumption points, down 47.6% year-on-year.
In terms of new energy vehicle credits, although the assessment ratio increased from 12% to 14%, it still generated 6.7672 million positive points for new energy, an increase of 54.9% year-on-year; generated 810,000 negative points for new energy, down 24% year-on-year.
That is to say, from the perspective of total scale, in 2021, the positive integral of fuel consumption and positive integral of new energy have created nearly 22 million, while the total of negative integral of fuel consumption and negative integral of new energy is only less than 7 million, a gap of nearly 3 times.
The comparison relationship is clear at a glance, and many negative points can be carried forward or traded through affiliated enterprises, and will not be purchased in the open points market, and the price of new energy vehicle points in 2021 will fall sharply.
01
The case of points trading
The speed of development of new energy vehicles far exceeds the plan, and also exceeds the expectations of the department formulating the double credit policy.
China's passenger car market has gradually stabilized from 24.744 million units at its peak in 2017 to 2021.
What about new energy vehicles? From 330,000 units in 2016, it has grown steadily to 1.2 million units in 2020 and 3.334 million units in 2021; the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has risen from 2% in 2017 to 17% in 2021. This speed of development is far beyond the overall expectations and planning.
It is also due to the introduction of new energy vehicles that the actual value of the average fuel consumption of China's passenger car industry (including new energy vehicle accounting) has dropped from 6.61 liters/100 km in 2017 to 5.75 liters/100 km in 2020, and the fuel consumption in 2021 is 5.51 liters/100 km.
In this process, we see that -11.71 million points of negative fuel consumption points in 2020 is the largest critical value, which represents the failure of the fuel consumption reduction strategy of the fuel vehicle companies at that time.
In the past year, the negative points of China's new energy vehicles are relatively stable between -800,000 and 1.06 million, which is China's double integration transaction - negative integration enterprises buy new energy positive points in the industry, and then offset the negative points of fuel consumption and new energy negative points.
After the points trading market began to operate, driven by negative fuel consumption points, from 825 yuan per point in 2018 to a minimum of 100 yuan per minute, it reached about 2100 yuan per cent in 2021, and the cumulative transaction in this process was close to 10 million points, and the cumulative revenue of the integral market size was about 14 billion yuan (mainly in 2021).
The situation in 2022 (that is, the year of 2021 points trading), which changes the characteristics of increasing the pressure on fuel consumption points in passenger cars in recent years (the lack of chips has reduced the supply of fuel vehicles), the negative points in 2021 add up to a total of -7 million points.
Let's take a closer look at this gap, how many new energy vehicle credits purchase demand.
Saic-GM, which has the largest fuel consumption point gap in 2021, is only -952,000 points. The 2.33 million fuel positive points of the Wuling family can be fully provided.
In the entire list of large negative scores, that is, FAW-Volkswagen's gap exceeds 500,000.
In other words, the negative fuel consumption integral can have a good transaction plan within the group joint venture company, and there is no need to purchase positive integrals for new energy. (Remarks: Positive points for average fuel consumption of passenger car companies can be carried forward or transferred between affiliated companies)
Large households with negative fuel consumption points can obtain positive fuel consumption points from affiliated enterprises
Under the entire SAIC group system, SAIC GM, which seems to lack points, does not lack fuel consumption points under the group's accounting, and there is no shortage of new energy points.
The fuel consumption points brought by SAIC-GM-Wuling around the Wuling Hongguang MINI are particularly excellent, generating a total of 2.33 million positive points. New energy credits due to the model limit of only 120,000, to SAIC-GM is completely enough. SAIC Passenger Vehicle's fuel consumption points also have 550,000 positive points, plus 260,000 new energy points, and the 2021 annual accounting is enough.
SAIC's overall 2021 double points situation
Also in difficulty in fuel consumption points is FAW-Volkswagen. However, through Volkswagen's stake in JAC Group, JAC's fuel consumption is 978,800 points, which can effectively alleviate the demand of FAW-Volkswagen. FAW-Volkswagen's new energy credit is -13,700 points, which is not a matter of small quantity.
In terms of Nissan, there are 400,000 positive fuel consumption points provided by Dongfeng Motor, and the overall demand is relatively small.
Beijing Benz and Beijing Hyundai need some fuel consumption points, which may not be provided by BAIC passenger cars, and need to purchase about 400,000 new energy credits from the outside.
The only thing left is probably Geely's negative integral, some of which is offset by new energy credits.
Overall fuel consumption negative integral related enterprise transaction flow
Calculate the total account: Of the 6.1366 million negative fuel consumption points, only about 15% of the negative points that really need to be purchased and offset by new energy vehicle credits are used, that is, the largest scale is about 900,000-1.2 million points.
The total negative points of new energy vehicles are only -810,000 points, and the calculation group is basically internally tradeable. (New energy credits are actually a market price, and you can buy it or not in the group.) ）
It is estimated that the group's internal and external total, the purchase demand for positive integrals for new energy vehicles is 2 million points, and the corresponding overall supply is about 6 million, and the supply and demand ratio this time has returned to the state of 3:1, and this price is basically the same as in 2019.
02
The direction of double integrals
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still increasing.
In the case of soaring oil prices, the overall passenger car sales in the four weeks from March 1 to March 27 were 1.214 million, and the most recent week, March 21-27, a total of 296,000 passenger car markets, 195,000 fuel vehicles, compared with 102,000 new energy vehicles, penetration rate of 34.2%, really reached the previous big guy said 35% of the ultra-high penetration rate.
In order to encourage the development of new energy vehicles, the design of double integrals also allows car companies to use new energy vehicles to count in the total number by multiples, thereby reducing the fuel consumption level of car companies.
In 2025 and before, pure electric passenger cars, external rechargeable hybrid passenger cars, and fuel cell passenger car models will be calculated as 0 when calculating the average fuel consumption of enterprises, but the accounting multiple will gradually decline, from 2.0 times (2021) to 1.0 times (2025).
However, because the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles is too fast, the magnitude of this decline cannot actually reflect the real decline rate of fuel consumption, covering up the fuel consumption problem.
That is to say, if according to the proportion of 20% penetration, when calculated by 1.6 times in 2023, the overall fuel consumption will still be greatly reduced, and the corresponding fuel consumption integral will improve a lot. That is to say, the negative points of fuel consumption in 2023 will not be much.
From the current situation, with the establishment of the plug-in hybrid DHT technology route, independent brands will also be vigorously promoted in this field, so in general, fuel consumption points are still a challenge for joint ventures, but independent brands will slowly come out of the transition route of hybrid (including plug-in hybrid and extended range).
However, from the perspective of the overall supply and demand pattern, the price of new energy credits in 2022 and even new energy credits in 2023 may remain in a very low range.
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