New energy vehicle丨 industry insights
Lead:
In recent years, problems such as the difficulty of charging new energy vehicles and the poor convenience of energy replenishment have frequently rushed to the hot search. Charging pile charging, as the most mainstream energy supplement method for new energy vehicles, has been criticized by many new energy vehicle owners due to its long charging time, slow speed, and unreasonable allocation of charging pile resources. In contrast, the power exchange mode is fast, which can meet the energy replenishment needs of many car owners in a short period of time, which is theoretically a better way to replenish energy than charging pile charging, but in the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles in China, the power exchange mode implemented by the State Grid only one year ended in failure, and to this day, there is no successful case of the implementation of the new energy vehicle power exchange mode in the world. What is the reason for the frequent failure of the implementation of the power exchange mode? Is there any development prospect for the power exchange model of China's new energy vehicles?
Introduction to power station replacement and power exchange mode
Introduction to the substation
The power exchange mode refers to the rapid replenishment of new energy vehicles by directly replacing the power battery, which generally needs to be completed in the power station. Common substations are mainly composed of two parts: the battery compartment responsible for storage, detection and charging and the battery replacement area responsible for replacing the battery, the battery exchange area contains a power exchange platform for supporting a stable vehicle and a mechanical arm for disassembling and disassembling the battery, and the battery transfer belt runs through the battery compartment and the battery exchange area for fast and safe transmission of the battery to the specified position (as shown in the following figure).
Introduction to the power exchange process
The entire power exchange process generally includes: confirm the situation in the station, enter the station, change the power, test, pay the order five parts, by the online APP and the offline replacement station to complete, the current market more commonly used power exchange APP is the Aodong new energy launched by the Aodong power exchange, Weilai Automobile launched the power and Geely Automobile launched the easy to change the power.
China's new energy vehicle substation industry map
To explore whether the power exchange model has development prospects in China, we need to focus on two issues:
1. Does the current new energy vehicle energy replenishment market need a power exchange model? ——Explore the necessity of the existence of the power exchange mode
2. Have the reasons that led to the failure of the power exchange mode in the past been solved? ——Explore the feasibility of implementing the current power exchange model
Does the current new energy vehicle energy replenishment market need a power exchange model?
1) In recent years, the construction speed of charging piles is much lower than the new speed of new energy vehicles, and the exposure to the demand for new energy vehicles has gradually expanded
Due to the restrictions on parking spaces, power grid capacity, community property management, etc., some new energy vehicle owners cannot install private charging piles, so the ownership of public charging piles can largely reflect the convenience of new energy vehicles. Since 2016, the domestic public charging pile and new energy vehicle ownership have shown an upward trend, in addition to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the growth rate of new energy vehicle ownership has slowed down, in recent years, the new energy vehicle growth rate continues to exceed the construction speed of public charging piles, which means that with the development and popularity of the new energy automobile industry, the demand for new energy vehicles will become more and more open, and the market demand for energy replacement provides an opportunity for the development of the power exchange model.
2) The power exchange mode is more in line with the market demand of the B-end, and the wide application of electric vehicles in the B-end will promote the popularization of the power exchange mode
The introduction of the "Three-year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense War" and other policies to promote the use of new energy vehicles and the replacement subsidy policy has promoted the wide application of new energy vehicles in the taxi and online car markets. In 2021, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream models of vehicles operated in domestic restricted and restricted areas, accounting for 69.2% and 52.3% respectively. Pure electric vehicles that support the power exchange mode greatly shorten the energy recharge time of the operating vehicles, leaving more time to ensure the normal operation of the vehicles every day. And some operating vehicles adopt the sales model of "separation of vehicle and electricity", which further reduces the cost of car purchase and replacement for car owners, and in the process of daily use, car owners do not need to worry about battery maintenance, depreciation and other issues. Therefore, the power exchange mode is more in line with the use needs of the B-end market, and with the further promotion of new energy vehicles in taxis, online ride-hailing, buses and other fields, it will promote the popularization and application of the replacement mode.
3) The subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles has been weakened year by year, and the price advantage of the "vehicle-electricity separation" model of power-changing models has been highlighted
In order to promote the popularization and application of new energy vehicles, the mainland has begun to implement the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles since 2009, which has reduced the burden of car purchases for consumers to a certain extent and effectively increased the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in a short period of time. With the gradual maturity of the new energy vehicle market, the market has entered the transition period from policy-driven to market-driven industry development, new energy vehicle purchase subsidies began to weaken year by year, in the period of 2020-2022, the purchase subsidy standards on the basis of the previous year fell by 10%, 20%, 30%, and will terminate the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy on December 31, 2022, the price advantage of new energy vehicles will be gradually weakened.
Different from the charging new energy vehicles of "vehicle-electricity integration", most of the new energy vehicles that support the power exchange mode adopt the sales method of "vehicle-electricity separation, battery leasing", and the power battery that accounts for 40%-50% of the manufacturing cost is subleased by sale, which means that consumers do not need to bear the cost of the battery when buying a car, which greatly reduces the burden of car purchase, and because the car price does not contain a power battery that is easy to depreciate, the power replacement model has a better value preservation effect and cost performance. Therefore, in the case of shrinking subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, the price advantage of new energy vehicles will gradually become prominent.
From the perspective of the current development of new energy vehicles, market demand and policy adjustment, the power exchange model can conform to the development of the industry and market demand, and it is necessary to implement the power exchange model in the domestic new energy vehicle market.
Have the reasons that previously led to the failure of the implementation of the power exchange mode been solved?
First of all, you need to understand what are the reasons for the failure of the power exchange mode implementation
According to the case analysis of the failure of the State Grid and Better Place in the implementation of the power exchange model, three reasons are summarized, namely: 1. External environmental factors; 2. Company decision factors; Substation supply chain factors. (As shown in the figure below)
Tesla as a new energy vehicle company, in the battery box location, size and disassembly and other aspects of the lack of standards are less affected, and since 2013 Tesla production of electric vehicle sales soared, in theory Tesla replacement power station has sufficient potential users, but Tesla's power exchange model has not been implemented as scheduled. The reasons that led Tesla to abandon the power swap model are different from the reasons for the failure of the State Grid and Better Place to implement the swap station, mainly in two aspects: 1. Tesla mainly produces luxury models, the target customer's sensitivity to the recharge time is not high, and the power exchange mode is not attractive enough; Tesla supercharge station system is perfect, the service is free, and there is a big gap between the replacement power station and the supercharge station in terms of charging and service. Therefore, even if Tesla's recognition increases and global sales continue to grow, Tesla substations suspend the power exchange business after one year of operation.
Can the problems mentioned above be solved now or are they resolved?
1) The market acceptance of pure electric vehicles has increased, and the environment for the development of power exchange models has improved
Different from the background of the times in which the State Grid implemented the new energy vehicle replacement model in 2012, after nearly a decade of application and development, the market popularity of new energy vehicles has been significantly improved. As the mainstream model that supports the power exchange model, the ownership of pure electric vehicles has increased year by year since 2015, with an increase of more than 50% at one point, and by 2021, the number of pure electric vehicles in China has reached 6.4 million. Sufficient potential users provide a better external environment for the development of the power exchange industry, which can meet the higher demand of the user base for the operation of the replacement power station, and with the further improvement of the replacement user, the marginal cost of the power exchange station will gradually decrease, and the return on investment cycle of the operation of the replacement power station will also be shortened with the improvement of the user and potential user base.
2) In recent years, the state has issued a number of policies to help the development of the power exchange industry
Since 2020, the state has successively issued a number of policies that are conducive to the development of the power exchange model, including continuing to subsidize power replacement models with a price of more than 300,000 yuan, strengthening the construction of power exchange facilities, and starting the pilot application of power exchange, which has promoted the innovation and application of power exchange technology. In November 2021, the State Administration of Market Regulation approved and issued the "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Power Exchange", which stipulates the safety standards for new energy vehicles that support the power exchange mode, including formulating the requirements for the power exchange operation, road driving and vehicle waterproofing, as well as the vibration, mechanical impact and electrical requirements of the power battery pack, and stipulating the limit working conditions for the use of the power exchange mode. Different from the previous environmental background in the period of 2012-2019, today's new energy vehicle power exchange model has more comprehensive policy support and safety standards, and the policy environment has improved significantly.
3) The participation of car companies has increased, and the improvement of the technical environment has solved the inherent problems of the power exchange industry
Different from the low participation and poor enthusiasm of car companies in the past, more and more automobile manufacturers and power battery manufacturers have joined the new energy vehicle power exchange camp, using their advantages in this field to launch new products and new technologies, and strive to solve the problems encountered in the process of new energy vehicle power exchange. For example, the traditional new energy vehicles do not need to frequently disassemble the power battery, so the need to frequently remove the battery swap mode for the fixed battery box screws put forward higher requirements, in order to solve this problem, Weilai Automobile launched The Bayobolt bolts and floating nuts, while improving safety, the parts have high adaptability and can be flexibly applied to a variety of models. Geely Automobile has also launched a more widely applicable GBRC power exchange platform, lowering the threshold for new car companies to build cars. Times Electric Service, a subsidiary of CATL, launched the "Chocolate Battery Changer", which strives to solve the problem of standardization of battery swapping batteries by standardizing small unit swap blocks and on-demand leasing.
4) The site selection method of the substation is improved, and the site selection method oriented by user convenience has a strong pertinence
In the past failure experience, operators rarely pay attention to the site selection of the substation, the substation is mostly scattered in multiple cities or even many countries, as a demonstration point or experience point for publicizing the power exchange mode, although this is a good way of publicity, but due to the lack of reasonable site selection logic, it is difficult to form a scale of the substation in a city, and the power exchange mode cannot really serve daily life. The current operators of the substation for the site selection of the substation pay more attention, the core site selection logic is to facilitate the user's daily energy supply needs, such as the service B-end operation vehicle substation site selection is mainly laid out in the vehicle handover point and the operating vehicle waiting area (such as the station, shopping mall entrance, etc.), and the replacement station serving the C-end vehicle is more distributed in the owner's residential area (such as: Weilai's "electric area room"), office space and shopping center, and some of the substation will rely on the more mature site selection logic of the gas station. The substation is built directly into the interior of the gas station. Reasonable layout of the power station can really improve the convenience of the owner of the power exchange while publicizing the power exchange mode, which not only helps the promotion of the power exchange mode, but also increases the frequency of power exchange through a reasonable layout to help the power exchange station maintain operation.
Some of the reasons that led to the failure of the implementation of the power exchange mode in the past have not yet been solved, mainly including two aspects: 1. 2. The construction cost of the substation is high, and it is difficult to achieve profitability of the substation; At present, the power exchange industry lacks a unified standard for hardware facilities such as battery box size and interface.
1) The high construction investment raises the threshold for the profitability of the replacement power station
According to the construction scale of the substation and the battery reserve, it can be divided into three types of substations: large, medium and small, and the construction scale is different, and the construction cost is also quite different (the specific details are shown in the following figure). At present, the fixed construction cost of the mainstream small and medium-sized substations in the market is about 2 million to 5 million yuan, of which more than half of the fixed costs are used to purchase power exchange related equipment, and the higher the battery cost required for the larger the substation (the average price of the battery per piece is about 50,000 yuan), generally accounting for about 30% of the fixed cost. The high construction cost raises the profit threshold of the substation, and fewer substations can achieve profitability.
The operating expenses of the substation are much lower than the construction costs of the substations, and according to the different frequencies of use, the operating expenses will also be adjusted, for example, the electricity cost, which accounts for the largest proportion of the operating costs, increases with the increase in the utilization rate of the substation, and the personnel and after-sales costs will also be slightly adjusted with the change of the usage rate.
At present, there are two charging modes for the replacement power station, most of the replacement power stations for C-end car owners use the model of monthly package packages, and the battery rental fee and a limited number of power exchange costs are included in the package price, compared with the profit through the replacement of electricity, the C-end replacement power station is more like the car purchase derivative service provided by the car company for consumers, and it is also a differentiated marketing means for the car company. Since the replacement package is generally signed at the car purchase stage, the profitability of the replacement power station is mainly affected by the sales volume of the replacement model. Therefore, compared with the refined operation based on the replacement power station, actively publicize the advantages of the power exchange model, enhance the user's acceptance of the power exchange model, and promote more consumers to choose the power exchange model is the main way to improve the profitability of the C-end power station.
B-end substation according to the city operating vehicle company signed a different agreement, divided into monthly package charging and according to the number of power exchange degrees (mileage) charging two ways, operating vehicles generally have a higher demand for power exchange, in the same city to replace the base of the vehicle will largely determine the profitability of the city's B-end replacement power station, at present in the city with high use of power exchange models in the city, part of the substation can achieve profitability.
2) The installation location, size, interface and other unified power exchange standards of the battery replacement battery box
Although the current development of the domestic power exchange market is hot, there is no shortage of excellent car manufacturers and third-party replacement power station operators in the industry, but due to the lack of unified power exchange standards, the current power exchange type new energy vehicles are mainly produced by car companies with power exchange stations or ordinary car companies cooperate with third-party power station operators to develop, business negotiations and related parameter determination process is more complicated, invisibly improving the production threshold and industry barriers of power exchange models. Although some car companies and third-party substation operators have disclosed their power exchange technology and related parameters, the differences in model design of different brands and the competition for industry discourse power determine that capable car companies are more willing to develop power exchange technology and design power exchange models that are more suitable for the brand. Therefore, with the addition of more car companies, the unification of standards such as the location, size, and interface of power exchange-related equipment is imminent. The unified standard for power exchange does not require the unified use of a standard for all models in the entire industry, but it is necessary to formulate suitable and reference standards according to information such as equipment function and vehicle price.
All in all, most of the reasons that led to the failure of the implementation of the power exchange model in the past have been improved, and the current implementation of the power exchange model in China has a certain feasibility, combined with the demand for the power exchange model in the domestic new energy market, it is concluded that the overall prospects of China's new energy vehicle power exchange industry are good.
If you are interested in related topics such as new energy vehicle power station replacement, power exchange mode or have related project needs, I look forward to you scanning the code to communicate with us.