Recently, SAIC-GM-Wuling announced the price adjustment of a number of its new energy vehicles, covering models such as Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Wuling Nano EV and Baojun KiWi EV, with an increase of 4,000 to 8,000 yuan.
In the past few months, a number of new energy vehicles have been announced to increase prices, and most of the pure electric vehicles on the market have risen a wave. This wave of new energy vehicles can be traced back to the beginning of 2022, but that is because of the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2022. This is the first wave of new energy vehicles this year, and the price increase at that time is within the accepted range, after all, it can be expected.
I thought it was the end, but I didn't expect that the price increase had just begun. Just when everyone thinks that the next round of general increase is subsidies and then decline, in less than three months, there have been news of price increases in various new energy vehicles, Tesla has announced price increases three times in a week, in the stock and fund "green" shining environment, Tesla can be called "wealth management products".
The reason for the general rise in new energy vehicles in the first quarter is simple - the price of upstream raw materials has soared. Why? Because of the arrival of the epidemic, geopolitical changes and the occurrence of war, in the era of economic globalization, the combination of comprehensive factors has caused a mismatch between supply and demand.
In the first half of 2020, the rise in raw material prices is still in a local trend, but the actual dark tide is surging, the epidemic is like a butterfly that incites wings, and the soaring price of raw materials is the inevitable consequence of the "butterfly effect".
The normalization of epidemic prevention has led to a longer inspection time for logistics and transportation, which directly affects the cycle of logistics and transportation. A large number of port staff cannot go to work due to the epidemic and other reasons, and there is a serious shortage of workers at the docks. No one unloaded or loaded, and the goods piled up in large quantities at the terminal. The previous ship did not complete the unloading/loading, it continued to occupy the cabin, and the subsequent cargo ships could only wait, and the port space was seriously insufficient, falling into the dead cycle of "plugging the ship".
But there is one exception, that is the most dramatic "3.23 Suez Canal stranding accident", Taiwan's Evergreen Group's Panamanian freighter "Tianqi" stranded in the Suez Canal, directly "horizontal" on the Suez Canal and up to 6 days long, Suez is one of the most frequently used routes in the world, the accident partially aggravated the global freight pressure, the real sense of "blocking the earth's rotation".
Factories and raw material production sites are also not good, a large number of workers can not work normally, products can not be produced normally, the factory naturally can not deliver on time. At this time, this side is the lack of capacity caused by the chaos of the global production chain.
But on the other hand, consumer demand has not been greatly reduced. After the outbreak of the epidemic, countries have adopted quantitative easing economic stimulus policies, continuously printing banknotes to "release water", and the currency has been over-issued, resulting in consumers still having considerable purchasing power.
Consumers have demand, but production and freight are lagging behind, and there is a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Most of the world's factories use the order production method, and the order can be repeated, the accumulated orders, a large amount of hot money in circulation, commodities controlled by capital, it is not difficult to understand why raw materials soared.
Power batteries account for nearly 1/3 of the cost of a car, from the end of 2021, the mainland's power battery manufacturers Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Fu Neng Technology have announced an increase in product prices. The continuous surge in the price of power batteries is because of the soaring prices of its core materials - lithium, cobalt and nickel. At the same time, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing day by day, the demand-side business has increased significantly, and the buyer's market has gradually evolved into a seller's market.
Ideal Auto Chairman Li xiang said bluntly, "The increase in battery costs is very outrageous. ”
The data shows that the quotation of nickel has risen from the original minimum of 111,400 yuan / ton in the past six months to 226,300 yuan / ton now; the price of lithium carbonate in China has risen from 50,000 yuan / ton in early 2021 to 500,000 yuan / ton at the end of the year; lithium hydroxide has increased from 213,000 yuan / ton to 501,000 yuan / ton; the quotation of cobalt in the East China market has also risen from less than 490,000 yuan / ton to 566,000 yuan / ton; lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently reaching 543,500 yuan / ton, up 5 times compared with the beginning of 2021.
Data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that compared with the beginning of last year, the average price of the cathode material of the mainstream ternary lithium battery rose by 108.9%, the average price of the cathode material of the lithium iron phosphate battery rose by 182.5%, the average price of the electrolyte of the ternary lithium battery rose by 146.2%, and the electrolyte of the lithium iron phosphate battery rose by an average of 190.2%.
It is worth mentioning that Russia is an important exporter of raw materials, and it is reported that according to statistics, only the largest russian miner produces high-purity nickel accounting for 20% of the global supply. 85% of global demand for palladium comes from the automotive industry, while Russia captures 40% of its global production. Russia exported 2.74 million tons of aluminum and its alloys in 2019, accounting for 24.3% of total global trade. These will be transmitted to the supply chain of new energy vehicles, affecting the production costs of car companies.
Wuling new energy vehicles, especially the sales of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, are obvious to all, and the power battery inventory of the previous large-scale low-price sweep will soon be consumed, and then if you want to equip the power battery, there is no doubt that you will have to accept the "cruel and realistic" high price on the current market. Even if the battery capacity of a single model of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is not large, and the price of the model is not high, under such a large market demand, even Wuling, which has a strong supply chain control, must increase the price to barely maintain the situation of "small profits but large sales".
Another reason for the price increase of Wuling new energy vehicles is the decline in new energy points, Fang Yunzhou, founder and chairman of Nezha Automobile, revealed, "The price of new energy credits in 2020 is about 1000 yuan / min, and it will rise to about 2000 / min in 2021, but the price in 2022 will return to about 1000 yuan / min." ”
But at the same time, Dong Yudong, CEO of great wall motor Euler brand, has a completely different price forecast, "because the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 160% last year, so there are more and more points, and the value of points this year is only 500-800 yuan a point." ”
Regardless of whether the price of new energy credits can reach thousands of yuan, the focus is that the price of new energy credits will decline sharply in 2022, and it is not an exaggeration to call it "waist chopping".
The reason why Wuling Hongguang MINI EV was willing to enter the market at a very low price was largely because it aimed at the new energy points trading market - since it is difficult to make a profit or even lose money by selling the vehicle itself, it is profitable to sell carbon points and balance the company's fuel consumption points, which is simply "killing two birds with one stone". But with the waist of the price of new energy credits, this curve profitable route, Wuling seems to be more difficult to play.
The editor said: The price increase of Wuling new energy vehicles is expected, and under the double blow of the soaring price of raw materials and the price of new energy integration, it is strange that it does not increase in price. However, because the original price of the model is not high, it has risen by several thousand pieces, and it still looks like a lot. Especially Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, many of its target groups are price-sensitive consumers, or want to buy a scooter at a very low cost, the potential of the car is not high, but after this price increase, everyone is likely to encounter such a situation - since it is sold at this price, why don't I add some money to a better pure electric vehicle?